I am worried about Atlético de Madrid. How can you not be?
Three games into the new season, three games against sides — Espanyol, Elche, Alavés — that are expected to finish in the bottom half of the table…and two points out of nine possible. It is Atlético Madrid’s worst start to a league season since 2009/10 — more than two years before Diego Simeone returned to the club and kickstarted its transformation into an elite side, one that has since qualified for the UEFA Champions League in 13 consecutive
seasons.
Is that streak — matched by only five other teams — now in jeopardy? Forget about competing for LaLiga; Atlético already are seven points adrift of Real Madrid and four behind FC Barcelona (pending Barça’s visit to Vallecas on Sunday).
Logically, the bad start has raised questions about Cholo Simeone and his continued viability as Atlético head coach. Simeone has made multiple strange decisions as he tries to grapple with a new-look squad that has more top-end talent but appears to have brutal positional depth in key spots. For example:
- Josema Giménez’s continued injury issues mean that Robin Le Normand effectively has no competition for his place (Marc Pubill has played zero minutes through three weeks).
- Koke, who turns 34 in January, is the backup to Johnny Cardoso, already on two yellow cards through three weeks
- The club never signed a replacement for Rodrigo De Paul; Thiago Almada visibly tires on the hour each game because he is tasked with constructing buildup play through the middle and then trying to combine with Julián Alvarez and Alexander Sørloth
With new left-back Matteo Ruggeri struggling to get involved in the offensive phase through two weeks, Simeone on Saturday moved Dávid Hancko, the team’s best center-back right now, to left-back for the 1-1 draw at Alavés. This gamble backfired — Hancko attempted only 23 passes in 72 minutes, while replacement Clément Lenglet conceded the corner that led to Nahuel Tenaglia winning a penalty for the home team.
What is most concerning about the Alavés game is that Atlético failed to adapt to the Basque side’s defensive plan until the very end of the match (see above). Knowing that Álex Baena’s absence would force Atleti to combine excessively on the right, five Alavés defenders moved to their left — leaving huge gaps in the center of the pitch that the team seemed not to notice until Antoine Griezmann (72nd minute) entered the game.
Where Koke (88th minute sub) slowed down possessions, Griezmann sped them up. For the first time since his move to the bench last spring, Griezmann against Alavés looked energized and something like his old self. He understood — and Simeone understood — that he could invert from the left as an additional playmaker and take advantage of those free central spaces; he even had a sliding chance at the back post from a corner, but his shot came back off the woodwork.
But in the screengrab below, look at Lenglet screaming for the ball, gesturing into the open space around him in the middle that none of his teammates seem to see.
Madre mía.
Even before this though, Atlético led at Mendizorrotza — just as the Rojiblancos did versus Elche last week, just as they did at Espanyol the week before. Though Giuliano Simeone benefited from a VAR error on his seventh-minute strike (you’ll be shocked to learn it was González Fuertes on duty), another positive start went to waste as the team’s defensive fragility re-emerged. I mean, you can sneeze on this defense and score a goal. Through three games, Atleti have conceded from every dangerous attack it has faced against lower-tier opposition; it makes one wonder how this defense is going to cope at Liverpool in two-and-a-half weeks, against Villarreal and Real Madrid in LaLiga next month…
And without a real partner for Alvarez — Sørloth’s display on Saturday is one of the worst I can remember from an Atleti center-forward — the team’s attack becomes imbalanced and ultimately just drowns. Despite 74 percent possession in the second half at Mendizorrotza, Atleti managed just four shots on target from seven box attempts for a total of 0.55 expected goals.
If it sounds like I’m making excuses, earlier in this piece or after the separator, I want to be clear that these results, these performances, are absolutely unacceptable. Unfortunately, it has become the standard.
Let’s go back to a question I asked earlier: is Atlético Madrid’s incredible streak of consecutive Champions League qualifications truly at risk? And as a follow-up, because the two are inextricably tied, is Cholo Simeone’s managerial cycle finished?
I wish I had the clarity of mind simply to say “yes”. But I don’t. I think the only way to have a fair discussion about Simeone’s future is when Atlético fall out of the top four, which — despite a few close calls — has never happened in any of the coach’s 13 full seasons in charge.
I suppose it depends too on how far you think the squad can go this year. In my estimation, Atlético have spent a lot of money to stand still, and not be caught by Villarreal, or Athletic Club, or Real Betis, even though Atleti’s spending suggests that the team should be much, much closer to Barcelona and Real Madrid. The club has bought several €20 million to €40 million-rated players in hopes that a few of them can develop into €80 million players, boosting the value of the Atlético name as Miguel Ángel Gil prepares to sell his majority stake.
While that isn’t a process that happens overnight, Atlético right now cannot even defeat Elche at home. Atleti already are behind those teams in the table. The same problems of the past four years remain, and Simeone has not implemented permanent fixes, no matter how many players step through the doors:
- no way through a low block, even one that concedes half the pitch to stop you
- weak, passive box defending
- players being asked to perform out of their natural positions
- no mental strength or fortitude to compete away from the Metropolitano
We have to be better than that, whether you think the team should compete with the duopoly or whether finishing top-four is the goal, as it is always is for Gil and Enrique Cerezo.
Simeone at this moment is swimming in a sea of doubts. Are the players failing to respond to him after so many years in charge? I don’t know. Is a reality beckoning that I don’t want to face? Perhaps. Am I — are we — underestimating whether the club is stable enough that a replacement could walk in and immediately change results? Probably not; good luck getting Filipe Luis out of Flamengo when his team is dominating the Brazilian league and is into the last eight of the Copa Libertadores.
We have to calm down a little. Let’s wait until Baena returns from his low-grade muscle injury. Let’s wait until October, November even, see what the league table and the UCL tables look like; Atlético faced a similar inflection point last fall before ripping off a club-record winning streak and vaulting back into the conversation for LaLiga. The international break could be the best thing to happen to Atleti. And whether you like him or not, Simeone has earned the benefit of the doubt, especially as those above him have turned over two-thirds of his squad in just over a year — change for more than just change’s sake.
But I can’t ignore the probability that this gets worse. For once, maybe there is a quagmire that the great Cholo Simeone can’t figure out — after all, the coach has openly said the team now has to evolve to match the club’s growth, assigning some urgency that evidently is not being absorbed. Atleti are not doing well, the coach is showing signs of floundering, and the fixture list is about to get much tougher. The criticism has been vehement, and much of it has been deserved.
The response will have to be just as forceful when Atleti host Villarreal in two weeks.
