Knowing what we know about Kyle Dubas draft tendencies, who could be some targets for the Pittsburgh Penguins with the 22nd pick at Friday night’s NHL draft?
It’s a loaded question to consider, since Dubas is always active in terms of desire to move up or down in the draft. His real target could be different from the pick that the Pens currently possess.
Assuming he stays in the neighborhood, who are some players in this pool that tend to fit the profile they like?
To determine that, we’ll stick with
Corey Pronman’s player profiles and check in on the three first round picks from last year. As determined in the link above, Dubas frequently has selected forwards in the first round so for today we’ll narrow the focus to just that position.
On Kindel’s pre-draft report, Pronman wrote in part: “Kindel was one of the best forwards in the WHL this season. He’s small but checks every other box you want. He’s a very good skater with the first few steps and top speed to play at the higher levels. He’s a skilled, creative offensive player who sees the ice well and has scored in large numbers in junior”
Bill Zonnon was the second pick last year for Pittsburgh, from Pronman again: “Zonnon checks a lot of boxes NHL teams will be looking for. He’s a big, fast center with a skating stride that will easily translate to the NHL. He has good stick skills and can create offense on the move.”
Finally, Will Horcoff was the last first round pick for the Pens where last year Pronman wrote: “He left midseason to join Michigan where his game took off from that point, making a real difference for his team at the college level as a U18 player. He’s a very skilled big man who can make small-man-type plays in tight areas. He sees the ice at a high level and has a creative offensive mind.”
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This doesn’t necessarily narrow things down, since many first rounders tend to carry similar traits, but the Pens ended up nabbing players with plus puck skills and who tended to be very productive players. That wasn’t a hard and fast rule since Horcoff was a projection pick, but in all three cases some similarities emerge for small-area players who excel in thinking the game and show skill at the lower levels.
It can be pointed out that the Penguins still selected three players with three different profiles. Kindel was an ultra-productive center/wing combo from the WHL that was seen as undersized. Zonnon was a big-body, high-motor type from Quebec and Horcoff was a massive player with offensive intrigue and a longer development curve. Other than all being forwards there wasn’t too much exact commonality on the styles.
Here’s some players that fit that type of general mold this time around.
Liam Ruck
Pronman says: “Ruck is a dangerous scoring winger. He’s a very slick and intelligent player who creates a lot with the puck. His pure athletic tools don’t jump out: he’s not that big, and he’s a below-average skater. He does work hard, though, and gets to the hard areas to generate offense, earning his coach’s trust consistently.”
In a lot of ways, Ruck sounds like Kindel in the pre-draft process, not that anyone would be expecting Ruck to play in the NHL next season. Ruck produced 104 points in the WHL last year, Kindel put up 99 points in that league in his draft year. There’s differences in position with Ruck being exclusively a winger and Kindel offering center ability but their frames (almost 6’ and 177 pounds for Ruck, 5’10 and 176 in the pre-draft process for Kindel) are the same. Kindel finished ranked 21st in Central Scouting’s NA skater ranking, Ruck checked in at 20th this year.
Kindel wasn’t expected to be selected 11th overall and taking Ruck 22nd would be slightly on the high-end of his most common projections, though he is generally seen as an expected late-first round pick. The main area to consider might be that Ruck is only going to project as a wing, and there are slight knocks on how his skating will translate. (Some might remember similar questions in the process with Kindel, which mostly looked unfounded from the get go).
JP Hulbert
Pronman: “Hurlbert is a very skilled scoring winger. He’s very creative and dynamic as a puck handler and passer while also having a good shot. With the puck, he looks like an NHL player, but his effort level and speed are average, and he can be pushed to the outside too easily”
A lot of the notes above about Ruck/Kindel apply equally to Hulbert. It’s another case of a creative, not large but talented forward (nearly 6’ and 183 pounds) from the WHL, who again was productive with 97 points in his draft year. Dobber Hockey said of Hulbert, “an offense-minded forward who is committed to playing at both ends of the ice with excellent puck-handling ability and a great wrist shot”, which again, sounds very much like Kindel’s reports coming out of the WHL.
Hulbert played on the same Kamloops team that Harrison Brunicke did – and sometimes as a center- he’ll be a player the Pens are well aware of. Hulbert, ranked 12th as NA skater by CSB, has a pre-draft expectation in most places to go in the 18-24 range, so if he’s even available at 22 that would be right in-line with where most are expecting that he comes off the board on draft night.
Nikita Klepov
Pronman: “Klepov is a highly skilled and intelligent winger. He has the ability to run a pro power play and make difficult plays consistently at the next level. He’s a solid skater who can generate chances with pace. His effort level is fine, although he’s not that physically imposing ”
Klepov (a league-high 97 points in the OHL) fits the mold of Ruck/Hulbert as well as an offensive winger. His puck skills and production are his calling cards that would be well within the norms of the type of player that Pittsburgh has targeted with high picks lately. There’s a chance Klepov, the eighth ranked NA skater, could be selected in the first 21 picks, which could become an issue for Pittsburgh sitting at 22, barring a move up the board via trade.
Jack Hextall
Pronman: “Hextall is a skilled center with excellent offensive sense. He’s a slick playmaker who executes difficult passes with consistency. He’s a diligent pivot who can play both ways and doesn’t shy away from going into traffic. His skating is solid, albeit not a standout trait”
Hextall, no relation to the former general manager, breaks the mold of the players listed above who could be seen as Kindel-esque types of profiles. Hextall is more along the lines of a Horcoff/Zonnon mashup as a center that hasn’t been a prolific scorer but one that will require more patience and development time. The Pens have prioritized boosting their centers, which might be the call again early in the draft. Unlike a prospect like Ruck or Klepov, Hextall isn’t seen as a prospect with a power play-type of future in the NHL at this point. Pronman listed a comparable as Peyton Krebs, who has at least made the NHL and scored 39 points last season. Hextall probably wouldn’t be a home run type of pick, but if the Pens are looking to make a solid choice that seems like a sturdy chance of becoming an NHL player of some sort, he could add value and depth to the center position down the line.
Casey Mutryn
Pronman: “Mutryn is a hardworking, physical 6-foot-3 winger. He’s a good skater who can play at an NHL tempo and carry pucks up ice competently at the top level. His offensive game has developed more than expected. He has some puck skills and scoring touch.”
Mutryn’s profile sounds a lot like a bigger version of Rutger McGroarty, a prospect the Pens didn’t draft but traded for early in his development cycle. Both Mutryn and McGroarty were Team USA captains at their respective U-18 WJC’s. Mutryn would break past tendencies since he is known more for size and rugged play a bit more than short area work but sounds like the type of player that would fit right into some of the desires Dubas has skated to create a big, aggressive team in the future. Mutryn isn’t always seen as a first round lock in mock drafts, but the Pens do have another pick high in the second round (39th overall) and may even look to trade down and move back a few spots from their first pick at 22. If they’re super sweet on Mutryn, moving down to get an extra pick might mean angling for taking him a little later on. Then again, the Pens had no problem ranking (and actually drafting) someone like Kindel 10-20 picks higher than a lot of his pre-draft expectations, so Mutryn shouldn’t be ruled out straight up at 22 if he is a player Pittsburgh wants that much.
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Of course, Dubas and the Pens could always easily decide to veer in another direction and target a defenseman with their first pick, later in the week we’ll take a look at yet more candidates that make sense as possibilities in their draft range. The need within the organization is certainly there for any way that want to go when it comes to identifying who the best pro available could be when they pick. The five names above would be fitting options but when a team picks deep in the first round there could be any number of ways they decide to go, with what happens before they pick sure to influence the night as well.
