The TCU Horned Frogs are back in the Sweet 16 after outlasting No. 6 seed Washington in an overtime thriller at Schollmaier Arena on Sunday evening. The No. 3-seeded Horned Frogs (31-5) are set to take on the No. 10 seed Virginia on Saturday, March 28 with a time to be determined. The winner will advance to the Elite Eight and for TCU, the Horned Frogs are seeking their second straight trip to the Elite Eight under coach Mark Campbell.
The Horned Frogs are favored to take down the Cavaliers in the Sweet
16. Betting odds for the game can be seen on FanDuel here. Will TCU break through and reach the Final Four this postseason? Here’s how that can happen.
Riding the Olivia Miles train
The Notre Dame transfer could’ve been a top WNBA draft choice in 2025, but she opted to remain in college and continue her career at TCU. Since arriving in Fort Worth, Miles has been nothing short of stellar, earning Big 12 Player and Newcomer of the Year honors only one year after Hailey Van Lith received both awards for TCU. Miles averages 19.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.6 assists on 48 percent shooting and 84.1 percent free-throw shooting.
Miles has been the engine for the Horned Frogs all season and should TCU surpass last season’s run and reach the Final Four, she’ll need to be on top of her game. Despite a poor performance in the first half of TCU’s OT win over Washington in the second round, Miles finished strong and ended with a near triple-double on 18 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Miles had a 12-point, 16-rebound, 14-assist triple-double against UC San Diego.
Sharp shooting offense
TCU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation, ranking 13th in field-goal percentage (47.1), 16th in 3-point shooting percentage (35.9) and 28th in free-throw shooting percentage (76.9). The Horned Frogs also deploy one of the more efficient offenses in women’s college basketball, ranking 27th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.22), 25th in assists per game (16.9) and 22nd in scoring (77.8 points per game). In terms of scoring margin, the difference between the offense (77.8) and the defense (55.9) comes out to sixth-best in women’s college basketball (22.0).
Specifically, TCU hones in on 3-point shooting, attempting the 12th-most per game (9.1) of any team in women’s college hoops. The Horned Frogs don’t get to the free-throw line at a high rate, which means TCU must be on its mark from downtown if the team hopes to make its journey to the Final Four for the first time in team history.
Avoiding South Carolina
TCU will avoid a major roadblock in the Sweet 16, as Virginia upset No. 2 seed Iowa in the second round on Monday. That leaves No. 1 seed South Carolina and No. 4 seed Oklahoma on a collision course in the Sweet 16. Other than Virginia, the Gamecocks and Sooners are the top threats standing between TCU and the Final Four. Oklahoma and South Carolina met in the regular season, with the Sooners beating the Gamecocks 94-82.
Without disrespect to the Sooners, South Carolina is a juggernaut in women’s college hoops and is likely the clear favorite to not only make the Final Four, but challenge for a national championship. One of the top offensive teams in the nation, South Carolina’s 86.8 points per game are tied for third-best in the nation with Oklahoma and rank behind only UConn and LSU. South Carolina’s margin of victory (29.5) is also third-best nationally.
If the Sooners can pull off the upset and TCU handles business against Virginia, then the Horned Frogs would likely be a slight favorite to win their Elite Eight matchup. What works in TCU’s favor is the team has experience from last season, when Hailey Van Lith, Sedona Prince and Madison Conner led the group to the Elite Eight. Donovyn Hunter and Taylor Bigby, both starters for the Horned Frogs, are back from that 2024-25 roster.
