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The Braves haven’t had too fun of a time lately. Neither has Austin Riley. This isn’t a pure coincidence — a thermonuclear Austin Riley can carry a team for a month, and the Braves haven’t gotten
that, for one reason or another, for a while. While the team has maneuvered to be different in terms of coaching and roster construction in 2026, Riley’s production is going to be a big part of whatever the team’s fortune will be going forward.
Career-to-date, status
2026 will be Riley’s eighth MLB season; he’ll turn 29 right around Opening Day. For his career, he has a 122 wRC+ and below-average defense. He’s solidly in well-above-average territory with a career 3.5 fWAR per 600 PAs to date, but that’s very much an average, as he had three straight 5+ fWAR seasons from 2021-2023 but has managed just 4.1 fWAR in his last two seasons combined.
A substantial xwOBA underperformance, like most of his teammates, made Riley’s 2024 look worse than it was. Consistently maligned by defensive metrics, Riley had a bit of a defensive breakout in 2023, but didn’t really sustain it in 2024. Still, it was better than getting worse as he aged.
Riley holds the most lucrative contract in Braves history, signing a $212 million, ten-year deal that includes a club option for an eleventh season in August 2022. He’s due to make $22 million annually in 2026 and every year onward through 2032; his club option has a $20 million salary with no buyout.
Recent performance
As noted, Riley’s production took a dip in 2024 and then again in 2025. The former was not “really” his fault, as his .361 xwOBA in 2024 was in line with his .365 xwOBA in 2023. After a slow start to 2024 outputs-wise, he was hitting really well (not thermonuclear on outputs, but definitely beautiful inputs) in the summer before a hit-by-pitch ended his season.
2025 was more of a struggle for various reasons. His xwOBA dipped to .328, and it was right around that range in both June and July before he succumbed to a series of abdominal strains that necessitated season-ending core surgery. His struggles were very generic: more swing and miss in the zone, but ostensibly without any conscious attempt to do so in order to increase power output — in other words, more swing and miss, worse contact quality. Not what you want to see.
There’s not too much to say beyond that — Riley was just worse, but not really in a way that his teammates were worse in terms of trading power for walks or anything. Whether that bodes well or poorly for him going forward is an open question. Defensively, he rebounded a bit relative to 2024 and looked similar to 2023. At this point, Riley probably won’t be a good defender at third base, but his hard work seems to have moved him from outright bad to okay.
Forecasting
Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Riley, for 2026.
You can see the injuries being priced in a bit here, and IWAG forecasts Riley’s wRC+ considerably below his career mark of 122. That latter phenomenon occurs because, well, there’s no good or simple explanation for his 2025 offensively — he just looked kind of broken, even leaving the xwOBA underperformance aside.
This aligns almost exactly with Steamer (3 WAR in 601 PAs, 116 wRC+); ZiPS is the “outlier” as it seems to push his career line forward moreso than any debit for 2025.
The probability distribution from IWAG here is a bit silly due to Riley’s recent injuries — you can see that the distribution of talent is a reasonably normal-looking curve that probably aligns with what you expect, but IWAG figures “injured and ineffective” is more likely than “injured and effective” or “fully healthy and effective,” based on our lived experience of Braves trying to play through injury to no good outcome recently, hence the dip in the middle.
Your turn
Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:
- Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Austin produce in 2026? (I am once again seriously inveighing that if you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number. Just a pick whole number and don’t make me round.)
- How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
