I think it is fair to say that the Yankee fanbase (and perhaps the club itself, deep in its heart of hearts) had a certain level of trepidation to go along with excitement as Gerrit Cole’s return from Tommy John surgery approached last season. At what level was Cole going to be able to perform? He was no spring chicken anymore.
Then he stormed out of the gate with 12.2 scoreless innings in his first two starts and all was right with the universe again. Obviously, Cole was never going to pitch to a 0.00
ERA all year. But he averaged a hair under six innings per start for the remainder of the season and provided a much-needed lift to a Yankee rotation that was hit hard by injury to multiple starters.
Grade: B+
2026 Statistics: 22 GS, 10-9, 3.61 ERA (118 ERA+), 127 IP, 131 K, 1.20 WHIP, 25.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 1.56 HR/9, 2.1 fWAR, 2.7 bWAR
2027 Contract Status: Under contract for $36 million
It was actually the second of Cole’s starts that really signaled to everyone that he was back. Facing Kansas City, the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner scattered four hits over 6.2 shoutout innings, issuing nary a free pass and whiffing 10 Royals hitters.
Avoiding the walk ended up being a major theme for Cole. His 1.77 BB/9 was the lowest mark of his career and bested his previous highwater mark as a Yankee by .26 BB/9. “Earn your way on” might as well have been the unofficial motto for Cole in 2026.
Unfortunately, his next start highlighted what ended up being Cole’s marquee bugaboo last season. At Yankee Stadium, Cleveland did not play GuardsBall against him. Cole surrendered three long balls in 5.1 frames and that ended up being an all-too-frequent occurrence.
The 1.56 HR/9 Cole allowed was the second-highest mark of his career, surpassed only by the COVID-truncated 2020 campaign. And it was not just home runs. When opposing hitters made contact off Cole this season, they made loud contact.
A quick glance at Cole’s Statcast contact metrics is both illustrative and horrifying. Average exit velocity (4th percentile). Barrel rate (22nd percentile). Hard-hit rate (4th percentile). A veritable house of horrors. Oh, and hitters weren’t clubbing those pitches into the ground. Cole’s ground-ball rate was in the ninth percentile. Getting hit hard in the air seems like a formula to give up a lot of long balls.
Luckily, Cole was still adept at missing bats. Although he’s no longer going to rack up 300+ strikeouts in a season as he did in Houston, Cole can still send opposing hitters back to the pine. His 70th-percentile strikeout rate was comfortably among baseball’s best. If you’re striking guys out and refusing to walk them, a lot of those aforementioned dingers should be of the solo variety.
The result, warts and all, was Cole performing like a top-of-the rotation starter in his return from injury. And for a team that features the presumptive 2026 AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler and lefty standout Max Fried, that’s all Cole needs to be moving forward … until the playoffs. Then he needs to throw eight shutout innings every start, for my mental health.
Cole has two seasons left on the contract he signed when Brian Cashman finally landed his “white whale.” Perhaps one of the biggest upsides to Cole’s 2026 is that it inspires optimism that Cole can be, at worst, a No. 3 starter in a rotation for what should be a serious contender over the next couple of years. And then we can deal with his free agency when we get there.
It’s also fascinating to think what those next couple of years could look like for Cole’s legacy. He finally notched the personal hardware he was missing when he won the Cy Young. He’s still bereft of a championship though. One (or more, let’s go back-to-back in 2027 and 2028) of those would really burnish his Cooperstown credentials.
Cole currently sits at 163 career wins. The two men ahead of him are either already retired (Justin Verlander) or likely soon to be (Max Scherzer). The closest hurler to him (Chris Sale) is two years older with an extra season worth of innings on his elbow. The nearest player to Cole who is younger than him (Michael Wacha) is one year younger and trails by 43 wins. On the right side of 30? The 29-year-old Logan Webb has 78 career wins.
With Verlander’s retirement, there are no potential 300-game winners in baseball’s short-to-medium term. Once Scherzer hangs up his spurs, there is a non-zero chance that Cole—if he can get there—could be baseball’s last 200-game winner for the foreseeable future.
That’s all in the future though. For 2027, I’d sign up in a heartbeat if Cole could replicate what he did in 2026 over a full season. The back of the napkin math for me suggests that would be roughly four-win season with innings and strikeout counts around 180-190 each. From my No. 3 starter. Yes, please.
As an aside, I’m just personally glad to have him back. Even an older Cole shows glimpses of the brilliance that made his so incandescent at his peak. Spring training can’t get here soon enough.
See more of the Yankees Roster Report Card series here.
