The Orioles have an identity problem. If you were to ask another team’s fanbase what they knew about the O’s, you are likely some scrunched faces followed by an empty world salad. It’s no wonder. The team has toiled in mediocrity (or worse) for the last 2+ seasons. They just traded away the face of the franchise. Nothing on the stat sheet really stands out. This club, in its current form, just sort of exists. If there is any hope of a return to relevancy, that needs to change, and fast.
Teams that
make an indelible mark tend to do so because they are particularly good at…something. That doesn’t necessarily mean they score the most runs or rack up the most strikeouts. Their skillset could be somewhat niche. The 2012 Orioles, for example, “should” have had an 82-80 record based on their mediocre (+7) run differential. Instead, they went 93-69 and returned to the playoffs for the first time in 15 years thanks, in large part, to their 29-9 record in one-run games. That ability to win close games was a reflection of their bullpen, which was among the game’s elite at the time.
The current Orioles don’t have anything like that to hang their hat on. Their pitching staff overall ranks 17th in ERA and 17th in WAR. The offense has scored the 14th-most runs in MLB and hit the 15th-most home runs this season. Depending on which fielding metrics you care about, the Orioles range from league average (eight DRS) to well-below (-17 OAA) in most defensive numbers. While the team is in the thick of the wild card race on paper, all of the evidence points to a club that will be lucky to finish above .500 and then quickly be forgotten outside of Baltimore.
An effort was made by the front office to give this year’s team an identity. The plan, it seems, was to be a power-hitting team. They signed Pete Alonso in free agency and traded for Taylor Ward. Those two players combined for 76 home runs elsewhere in 2025. They have hit just 32 this year, and Ward was dealt to the Mariners last week. Gunnar Henderson was expected to bounce back and maybe flirt with the 37 home runs he smacked back in 2024. He’s currently on 18 home runs and having the worst offensive season of his career. Rather than being one of the sport’s most powerful teams, the Orioles sport a .394 slugging percentage, which is 22nd in MLB.
An emphasis was also put on starting pitching over the offseason as well. The team made a big commitment to Shane Baz, re-signed Zach Eflin, and brought in Chris Bassitt as a steady veteran hand. The hope was for the starters to be a stabilizing force while the offense won the team its games. For the most part, the rotation has done its job, though not exactly in the way the front office envisioned.
Eflin threw just 3.2 innings before he needed Tommy John surgery. Bassitt has missed two months and wasn’t particularly good (5.27 ERA, 79 ERA+) before that. But the quartet of Baz, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and Brandon Young have been effective and give the team something to build on heading into 2027, even if they don’t retain the pending free agent Rogers.
The Orioles continue to say that they are pursuing a playoff spot this year, and at just two games back of the final wild card spot that is exactly what they should be saying. But their actions at the deadline indicate that the front office is focused on 2027. Some off field changes are sure to come, though it sounds like president of baseball operations Mike Elias still has the backing of control person David Rubenstein…for now.
Rubenstein recently said it was “a little frustrating and embarrassing” that the Orioles have struggled so much since he took over the team. His admission of those feelings publicly does sound like a shot across the bow against Elias.
After all, the most likely outcome of this season is that the Orioles will miss the playoffs. If that happens, it will be two straight seasons without postseason baseball in Baltimore, and it comes on the heels of a 2024 campaign that flamed out in the second half and ended with a sweep in the first round. This was supposed to be a competitive window. Injuries and Brandon Hyde took the blame last year. There won’t as many places for Elias to hide now, and it is possible that Rubenstein decides to go in another direction. But it would be quite an about face for Elias to be out a year after he and Rubenstein appeared to be in lock step on the signing of Alonso as well as extensions for Baz, Bradish, and Samuel Basallo.
So, what can Elias do to get these Orioles back into the postseason mix? He could try to stop being cute with roster moves, admit his faults, get truly aggressive, and give his team an actual identity.
Expecting all of your prized prospects to turn into big league superstars is a pipe dream. Determine which ones you truly believe in, and look to ship out the rest for an impact piece. Remember that trade of DL Hall and Joey Ortiz for Corbin Burnes? It worked out pretty well for the Orioles. Burnes didn’t re-sign, but he was terrific in 2024, and it’s not as if Hall of Ortiz have made your regret it. Now imagine how much the Orioles could get if they didn’t wait until young players like that debuted and showed their warts a bit before making a move.
That influx of external talent can also help to disrupt any group think that may exist in the organization. Different organizations go about player development in unique ways. The Orioles could clearly do with some alternate perspectives. Maybe it would stem the sorts of downward spirals that this club has been prone to in recent years.
The team could also afford to roll back the clock a few years and get back to making the homegrown players earn their major league spot. The Orioles entered the 2026 season planning to hand an everyday role to Colton Cowser in center and simply hoped that Coby Mayo could fill in for Jordan Westburg and his indefinite rehab. Those decisions came back to bite. Cowser disappeared on the bench for weeks at a time, and Mayo remains a work in progress. Having more good players than spots available is a good thing, as is pushing a young player to beat out a proven veteran clawing for another shot in the bigs.
The Orioles are unlikely to blow everything up this offseason. But they clearly need a refresh or a retool, or whatever they want to call it. Unless something unforeseen happens, it will be on Elias to swallow his pride a bit and have the type of winter he has frequently avoided as a baseball executive. That might be a good thing for Orioles fans.
