This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the New England Patriots. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
Back to the Formula
Last week, we saw the Browns win a football game in convincing fashion by a score of 31-6. It’s easy to see how the Dolphins played into the formula that fits Cleveland’s team the best. They don’t throw the ball long, they don’t get the ball out quick, and they made a lot of dumb mistakes (penalties and turnovers). You could see the confidence grow for the Browns’ defense as the game went on — each person was hungry or expecting an interception.
That’s the type of jolt this defense needs. On one hand, it was against the lowly Dolphins, but on the other hand, sometimes that little nudge of confidence can assure them that they can be the ones who produce a win via domination each week, and the offense is just capable enough to finish some of those short drives.
The issue this week is with the Patriots. How real are they at 5-2? They absolutely deserve credit for taking care of business, but victories over the Dolphins, Saints, and Titans would make anyone look and say, “Well, those are the worse three teams in football.” They also lost to the Raiders. I think they are a solid, middle-of-the-road team that is getting sharp quarterback play from Drake Maye and good coaching from Mike Vrabel. However, this is the toughest defensive test that Maye will face, as the Browns are back to being ranked No. 1 in the NFL. One offensive stat that stands out about the Patriots is how they push the ball down the field. Stefon Diggs is averaging 11.7 yards per reception, Hunter Henry is at 12.9, and Kayshon Boutte is at 17.8. I imagine that New England won’t want to back away from their passing attack, but you also have to imagine that these Browns defensive backs are going to be salivating at the opportunity of being challenged.
The biggest story of the game is, “What will the Browns’ offense do?” Last week, they got away with still being pretty tame, but executing on the ground with Quinshon Judkins on some short fields. This week, they face a Patriots defense that ranks 3rd against the run and 24th against the pass. If you go back to each week, New England has held starting backs to 38 yards (2.0 YPC), 30 yards (2.7 YPC), 47 yards (2.6 YPC), 49 yards (4.9 YPC), 49 yards (3.3 YPC), 31 yards (3.1 YPC), and 22 yards (4.4 YPC). The consistency is impressive, and they do a good job coming up to tackle against the run, and a really good job at now allowing the big run. They also have a physical breed of football on both sides of the ball. With that said, with the teams they’ve faced, you often see them falling behind early or not being good in general. The Browns would be wise to stick with the type of gameplan they executed against Miami: make sure Judkins gets his touches, and try using it to set up some plays downfield.
Quick Hitters
Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz talked about the team’s increased blitz usage, or at least the perception of it last week:
“Yeah, I mean, not all of those were really blitzes. You know, some of the simulated pressure stuff, and there were a lot more pass situations in that game. Just different things we were trying to take advantage of. Every week, it’s a little bit different. You know, won’t go into a game with a set number. I think the lifeblood of what you do defensively is your ability to rush with four, but you also need to enhance that at times by bringing five, bringing six, bringing zone pressure, bringing simulated pressure, moving guys around a little bit. I think you saw all of those in that game. I think the biggest thing was just the opportunity to use more of that stuff because we had the lead and there were a lot more situations. We did a really good job of shutting down the perimeter with the screen game, which put them in a lot of second and longs, third and longs, which allowed us to be in our rush stuff. So, every game is a little bit different. You know, there’s nothing that we ran in the game that we haven’t run before. It’s just the opportunity to use it.”
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees was asked about how the Patriots haven’t allowed a 50-yard rusher yet:
“Yeah, they limit explosives, right? Their secondary tackles well, they do a great job up front with movement, and creating some penetrators, and canceling gaps and they’re fundamentally sound. They’re not very often in a disadvantaged point of defense. So, all of our guys got to buy into the run game. You know, it takes all 11 to be successful there. We have got to continue to find ways to be good in that area of the field and find ways to be explosive because they’ve limited that. Like you look at no 50-yard rushers, a lot of that has been limiting explosive runs. I think they only have two or three plus 10-yard runs throughout the season. Some of those are scrambles, they’re not even designed runs. So, as you look at it, it’s a group effort. They do a good job of being structurally sound and making sure that they have gap integrity, and then their secondary tackles well to get guys on the ground to limit those.”
Special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone talked about the Browns are getting contributions from starters or veterans on special teams:
“We’ve gotten good contributions from guys like Grant, starters just willing to do anything it takes him and Jenk (Rayshawn Jenkins), really. Devin Bush has done a good job for us. So, you know, credit to those guys that are selfless and doing anything they can to help our team out.”
Some other notes to look forward to:
- I’m looking forward to see for myself just how good the Patriots are. I haven’t seen a whole lot of them, and I feel like it’s one of the teams I’ve watched the least the past couple of years.
- Cleveland appears to be getting a boost on the injury front this week. Jack Conklin will return at right tackle, David Njoku has a shot to play, and Mike Hall Jr. is expected to make his season debut on defense.
- I liked the types of things we saw from the Browns’ defense last week, disguising where pressure would be coming from. I think New England will be better at handling that, but I think it’s good that Jim Schwartz doesn’t just rely on pure individual talent across the board — it’s good to throw some curveballs to the quarterback, and hopefully bait them into an erratic decision that another member of our defense can take advantage of.
- It’d be really nice to see some more consistent punts from Corey Bojorquez.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Chris Pokorny: “I thought about picking the Browns this week for an upset, but I still can’t get past the offensive struggles with scoring until they prove otherwise. For now, the data tells me New England does great at stopping the run, and although they are vulnerable to the pass at times, that doesn’t really mean anything since our receivers have struggled mightily and our quarterback hasn’t shown the ability to push the ball downfield. The Browns will stay competitive, but just not have enough punch for a win.” Patriots 20, Browns 13
Jared Mueller: “Picking the Browns over the Patriots is as much about betting against the odds and history as it is a belief in Cleveland’s defense to make Drake Maye’s life difficult. Did New England already have their Super Bowl against the Buffalo Bills? Are they really good or just faced bad defenses/easy schedule? Will the “new coach rub” wear off for Mike Vrabel?
None of it is probably that dramatic but the Browns can figure out how to win in the margins, as they’ve done twice this year and almost two other times (against quality opponents).” Browns 21, Patriots 20
Curtiss Brown: “New England’s offense is the main talking point. 6th in EPA/Per play. 12th in offensive success rate. 1st in Dropback EPA and 5th in Dropback Success Rate. Those numbers are pretty impressive. However, the offense hasn’t been tested in terms of defenses that they played. Quarterback Drake Maye has been sensational this year and but he hasn’t played a defense like Cleveland’s defense. If the Browns defense played like they did last Sunday and Jim Schwartz schemes to make life miserable, it could be a long day for Drake Maye.
I don’t know how good the New England Patriots are. Granted, you play who is in front of you but it’s a fair question to ask. Cleveland’s rushing offense will be tested as New England’s run defense is one of the best in the league. It’s all going to come down if the Browns can make it a rock fight and if their defense can travel on the road. Drake Maye is a dawg (as someone who was high on Maye during the pre-draft) and he will likely over come anything that Cleveland throws at him. Low scoring affair but Pats get the dub because the Pats have Drake Maye and Cleveland doesn’t.” Patriots 20, Browns 13
Barry Shuck: “At the beginning of the year, this game would be another candidate for the Toilet Bowl series, but the Pats are much improved. Cleveland is on a one-game win streak. Woo-hoo! But the Browns still can’t score points unless the opponent is Miami. Cleveland is #27 in passing, which means our receivers aren’t getting separation or else the offensive line can’t keep the pocket safe long enough or we have a rookie quarterback. Or all three. Geez…..Just now starting to run the ball effectively, but still in the bottom third in rushing. Defensively, the Browns rock. #7 in passing defense and #5 in rushing defense. I really don’t know who will win, but New England has scored the fifth-most points this year. Their offense against our defense will be the main subject come game day. Our offense still can’t sustain drives (unless they are playing the Dolphins).” Patriots 27, Browns 13
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
