The San Francisco 49ers are taking on the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football, looking to stack consecutive wins for the first time since Week 3 and keep their place in the NFC Playoff Picture.
San Francisco is coming off a dominant 41-22 win over the Arizona Cardinals, where they controlled the game from the start and never trailed in Brock Purdy’s return from injury.
Purdy led an efficient offense, throwing for 200 yards and three touchdowns, while Christian McCaffrey had 81 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries and caught five passes for 40 yards and another score.
Defensively, the 49ers did allow Jacoby Brissett to throw for 452 yards, but that was more so due to the game script and the team tiring out at the end. They forced three turnovers, which was a big sign of improvement.
Now, they face a Panthers team that has gone 6-5 this season, starting the year 1-3 before winning four of their next five games, including a 16-13 win over the Green Bay Packers. Carolina is trying to stay in the playoff race with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sliding in the NFC South, but it has a tough test on Monday on the road.
The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites at home on Monday. How can they pull off the victory on Monday?
Tackle well
Carolina’s passing attack has wavered this season, as Bryce Young has seen some strong games (448 yards, 3 touchdowns vs. Atlanta) and some weaker games this year.
The Panthers haven’t pushed the ball down the field as much, with Young averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt and 7.1 air yards per attempt, which is one of the lower figures in the NFL. That’s well down from the 8.7 air yards per attempt he had a season ago.
The 49ers need to keep things in front of them in the passing game, but also tackle well when the ball gets out of Young’s hands quickly. Their defense swarms to the ball, which will be crucial on Monday. They’ve got to finish plays and force Carolina into later down situations.
That also applies to the run game, where Rico Dowdle has averaged five yards per carry this season and has been the catalyst of Carolina’s offense recently. The team has run-blocked well, but the 49ers will need to limit the explosive plays from Dowdle as well.
Build on last week
The 49ers run game opened up well last week, as McCaffrey had his most efficient game of the season from a yards per carry standpoint.
San Francisco faces a Carolina defense that is around the middle of the pack against both the run and the pass, but the latter is the scarier part of its defense. At home, the 49ers need to find a balance and work off McCaffrey and Brian Robinson as they continue to develop their run game.
Carolina has seen some shaky performances against top backs, notably James Cook (216 yards, 2 TDs on 19 carries), Josh Jacobs (87 yards, 1 TD on 17 carries), and Bijan Robinson (104 yards, 2 TDs on 23 carries).
McCaffrey also continues to be a threat in the receiving game, which may be Kyle Shanahan’s biggest matchup advantage on Monday as he looks to neutralize Carolina’s linebackers.
But, the 49ers need to take advantage on the ground, where the Panthers have been susceptible this season, giving up both explosives and consistency against good run teams.
Red zone
After a slow start to the year, San Francisco is continuing to grow in the red zone, jumping into the top 10 after a 4/5 week against the Cardinals last Sunday.
They’re scoring touchdowns at a 62.5 percent rate, good for ninth in the NFL, while Carolina is all the way down at 21st. San Francisco also gets to the red zone at a high rate, averaging 3.6 trips per game, as it consistently has been able to move the ball offensively with both of its quarterbacks.
Carolina has a good red zone defense, ranking seventh in the NFL, allowing only a 52.9 percent touchdown rate, so that will be a good battle, whereas the 49ers defense ranks only 18th this season.
The 49ers signed a new kicker, Matt Gay, this week to replace the injured Eddy Piniero. Gay had been with the Washington Commanders and only converted at a 68.4 percent rate so far this season, primarily struggling from 50+ (4/9 on attempts).
So perhaps the 49ers are more aggressive in plus territory, which could lead to more red zone trips. It’s on them to convert those against a tougher defense.
