“I come to praise Caesar, not to bury him.” — William Shakespeare
No one has been more scrutinized and embattled in Houston than Nick Caley. I am a numbers guy first and foremost. Most decisions that are
made emotionally are the wrong one. The whole concept behind the value of things was to hope that we as fans could understand the science behind why things are done. When teams use evidence to make decisions they often make better decisions. When they make the wrong decision it is usually either because of simple bad luck or because they need better evidence.
We could say that the offense has been disappointing overall and I suppose that is true to a certain extent. After all, they are currently 17th in points scored. In a 32 team league that is almost exactly average. I’d imagine for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, average is disappointing, but we have to remember where they were coming from, what his mandate was, and how that all fits into the overall narrative.
We should start with the mandate. Obviously, doing better is a mandate by itself, but the Texans needed to improve in some key areas. First, we wanted them to keep Stroud cleaner in the pocket. That would happen with a combination of better blocking, a quicker passing attack, and better decision making by Stroud. We can rate all of those things through statistics. We also hoped the running game would improve. We hoped they would take care of the football and we hoped that they would commit fewer pre-snap penalties as well. We can rate all of those things.
We have to remember the mandate. The team is going to play football the way that DeMeco Ryans wants to play football. I think that is the one thing all of us need to remember. We can watch the games and we can see opportunities where the Texans leave points out on the field, but at the end of the day we have to come back to the way Ryans wants to play football. When he talks about the kind of team he wants to be, are the Texans living up to that image?
Tough, Physical team
This is usually the first description that Ryans uses when describing the way he wants to play football. He would probably love the team to run it 40 times a game if the situation would allow. They are averaging 27.4 rushing attempts per game. That’s two more carries per game than the 2024 squad. So, if Ryans wants an offense that runs the ball more often then he got that offense. Now, are they effective at it? They are 26th in the NFL in yards per attempt.
I think this is where most fans get caught up and why I love numbers in the first place. Numbers help quantify a feeling that we have. The offense feels ineffective because they are trying to do more of something that they aren’t good at. This immediately brings up two philosophical questions. First, are they not good because of Nick Caley or is there another reason they aren’t good? Secondly, is Caley responsible for continuing to do something that is not working?
The difficulty is that the answers for both of these questions are yes and no. Kyle Shanahan demonstrates on a yearly basis that there are ways to scheme more rushing yards with formations, motion, and where you attack the defense. It’s not as simple as simply handing it off and hoping for the best. Yet, this is an offense without Joe Mixon and some of the choices on the offensive line did not work out. On the second question, Ryans clearly wants a more conservative style, but even within that construct there are multiple ways to run the football that haven’t been employed.
Take care of Stroud and the football
We don’t need a huge explanation here as the numbers speak for themselves. I suppose it is possible the Texans could turn it over nine times in the next three games, but that seems fairly unlikely. So, they will finish 2025 with fewer turnovers than 2024. Similarly, I seriously doubt they will surrender 23 sacks in the next three games. So, based on a simple mandate, Caley has been better than his predecessor. How much better? That is obviously open for debate.
Stroud becomes more efficient
We could look at just Stroud or we could look at overall quarterback numbers. In both cases, they are on pace to surpass their touchdown totals and throw fewer interceptions. They have done that. Stroud is on pace to throw only 19 touchdowns, but he also missed three games with a concussion. As a team, they are on pace to throw 24 touchdown passes versus 20 last season. That is a marked improvement. They are also on pace to throw only nine interceptions where they threw 12 last season.
Stroud and the team have also seem a slight uptick in completion percentage. That coupled with the fewer sacks explains the increase in net yards per attempt. So, it may not be a huge improvement, but it is an overall improvement in that department. Furthermore, he has been playing better recently, so these numbers might be looking better by the end of the season.
Overall Thoughts
It is hard to separate out what we think the offense could look like with whether Nick Caley is actually performing the job that was asked of him. They are taking better care of the ball, the quarterbacks have been more efficient, and they are doing a better job of protecting the quarterbacks. The running game has gotten worse, but that can be explained away by the loss of Joe Mixon. So, while the Texans offense may make us want to pull our hair out at times, that might be a function of what is asked of them. The frustration stems from the fact that the personnel clearly does not match what they are trying to do. That reflects more on Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans than Nick Caley. I will own up to my part in this. Earlier in the year I was calling for Caley to be fired. It still wouldn’t break my heart if he were replaced, but I have to admit he is doing the job they asked him to do. It is time to focus our attention on who is doing the asking.
