We’re here. In about 24 hours, the UFC will host an event on the White House South Lawn. It’s a surreal event, given the history of this sport, so let’s talk all about it before this finally happens.
Is UFC White House good for the sport?
Will this event help or hurt the reputation of MMA among the general public?
This is a question I’ve struggled with as we’ve gotten closer to this thing actually happening, and while the reality is we won’t know until long after the event is over, it feels like the answer is that this is going to hurt
MMA broadly. Now, whether or not the UFC cares about that is an entirely different thing. But more on that in a moment.
First, let’s acknowledge that there are some potential huge positives about this event, not just for the UFC’s bottom line, but for the sport. MMA is a small bubble inside the greater sports bubble. The biggest MMA events reach into that level, drawing interest from people who would otherwise never watch. But this is beyond even that. UFC White House is such a spectacle that there will be the widest possible audience of viewership for this, the kind the sport has never seen before. If some of those people catch the bug, the sport gets bigger. That’s good.
Now, for the bad.
For as much as Dana White has repeated the lie that this is not a political event, it is one. An event celebrating the birthday of a politician (America 250 is an obvious cover, which is why this is on Sunday and not Saturday), taking place at the literal home of the national executive branch, is inherently political. This would be true regardless of who is in the Oval Office. If somebody tried to burn the White House down while Obama was in office, that wouldn’t have just been some guy burning someone’s home down; it would have been a terrorist act. This is just a fact.
Now, just because something is political does not mean it’s bad. Celebrating the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States IS political (it’s celebrating the birth of a literal political entity), but I think most Americans are cool with that in concept. After all, July 4th is a major holiday. But things get murkier given the context. Whatever your political alignment, I think we can all agree that the American public is sharply divided right now, and for a significant portion of the population, America 250 has become about celebrating one man, not the country. And a lot of people in the United States really don’t want to do that.
But it’s not just that the UFC has aligned itself with one side of the political aisle. Again, that’s not even a bad thing, necessarily (and it’s been great for the UFC’s profit margins). But this is a demarcating line for the broader public. Sure, people in the MMA bubble are aware of the UFC’s rightward shift since 2016, and the broader public probably has some vague notion about it. But there’s a vast difference between millions of people maybe being aware that Dana White spoke at the Republican National Convention, and everyone in the country knowing the UFC held an event on the White House lawn on Donald Trump’s birthday. A huge chunk of people who were previously slightly negative or ambivalent toward the UFC are now going to hate the UFC and what it stands for.
There’s an apocryphal story about Michael Jordan and why he would not make political statements, where he says, “Republicans buy shoes, too.” The UFC has decided it does not care if half the country buys shoes. And while that might be a good choice in the short-term, intentionally alienating people always has long-term ramifications.
Bad Weather
UFC executive Craig Borsari says they have contingency plans for various issues that might arise while holding an outdoor event, but he didn’t go into specifics. Looking at the weather forecast, D.C. seems like it will get some rain tomorrow, but fairly light, which the promotion seems to be prepared for. If things get worse, though, my sense is that they’ll punt the event.
Borsari said the UFC never considered doing an indoor venue or anything else, and the whole premise of UFC White House is to do fights on the White House lawn. If the weather doesn’t comply, it’s not like they can go to the nearest gym. Best guess is they’ll push forward unless is completely untenable, and if that is the case, then they’ll postpone to next weekend.
Worst fight?
What fight is most likely to put the President to sleep?
I know this is likely meant as a jab to the President, but I’m gonna side-step that landmine and speak to a bigger point: the best part about UFC White House is that it’s all gas, no breaks. Seven fights, all of them good.
Trashing APEX cards is old hat by now, and road shows are slowly getting worse, too, but for the past few years, we at least could rely on numbered events to maintain a high bar of quality. But in 2026, even that has dropped off dramatically, with more and more replacement-level fights taking up space. Which makes this card stand out so much. It’s like if you took a good numbered event, and then cut the additional five fights of Contender Series people from the undercard. I’d love it if this became the norm (14 fights is way too many for a card, no other sporting event lasts 8 hours), but that’s never going to happen, so I intend to just enjoy this one.
But, if I had to choose what the probably “most boring” fight on the card is, I think the obvious answer is Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi. That’s an objectively good fight, but there’s a high likelihood that O’Malley sticks and moves and wins a lackluster decision. Everything else is a banger (or a title fight).
Upset
What happens if Justin Gaethje somehow upsets Ilia Topuria?
I might never stop laughing. I believe that Ilia Topuria is at worst the second-best fighter alive today. But the man is in desperate need of a humbling. He has gone full-blown Conor McGregor, but at least McGregor — in between being deeply annoying — also could be clever or funny. Topuria is just ceaselessly arrogant and entitled, while somehow constantly feeling slighted. It’s maddening to listen to, and it never stops anymore. A loss to Gaethje might give him some perspective. We all need it at times.
Plus, if Gaethje wins, it’s one of the biggest upsets in UFC title history, and given the context, a legitimate American sports triumph. A massive American underdog pulls off the upset of the year on the White House lawn? It’s not the Miracle on Ice, but it still gets Gaethje a movie. And it would be a rad conclusion to the career of the most exciting fighter of all time.
Thanks for reading, and thank you to everyone who sent in questions! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because every week I put a prompt into The Feed for your questions. Fire them into there, and I’ll answer the best ones in the Mailbag, and try to get to the rest in the responses.
