While John Mateer was a terrible matchup for the Michigan Wolverines, this Saturday will feature a theoretically even more talented quarterback. Dylan Raiola is a former top-10 prospect who decommitted from Ohio State before eventually signing with the Nebraska Cornhuskers, and is now tasked with bringing the blue blood back to prominence. Of course, he has yet to reach his potential, but the pieces are in there.
Matt Rhule’s squad is still led by its defense (9th per SP+), but having a competent
offense would help this team finally get back to being competitive. It is a long hill to climb for the offense after barely finishing in the top-100 in last season’s final SP+ rankings, but the results are much better to start off 2025. It all comes down to the arm of Raiola, who will get a huge test against the Michigan defense this weekend.
Talent, then experience
Raiola and Julian Sayin are the two blue-chippers the Wolverines are scheduled to see, but unlike Sayin (and Bryce Underwood), the Nebraska quarterback already has a year of experience under his belt. It was not an amazing year for Raiola, but as a true freshman he was not completely horrible: in 2024, he threw 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 67.1% passing, but averaged just 6.9 YPA and struggled against better teams like Ohio State and Indiana.
In 2025, he currently has thrown 8 touchdowns without a pick and has completed 76.6% of his passes, though a lot of his damage came against Akron and Houston Christian. Cincinnati limited him to 5.8 YPA, but he still completed a ton of passes and found the end zone twice in the opener. The numbers may not be otherworldly, however, I think this has more to do with the coaching staff keeping it simple and letting him make the safer throws. He can place the ball when given a shot:
I would say the eye test makes Raiola look better than last year, which is absolutely the expectation for elite prospects heading into Year Two. There are still some missed throws to kill drives and defenders have dropped an interception or two, but overall the arrows are pointing up. Even last season it was clear he can pick apart lesser opponents, so conference play is where we will really see if he has taken the step into the next level.
Come and get it
I think this is a great opportunity to see how good the Michigan defense can be in 2025. The loss at Oklahoma was really disappointing, but in hindsight things may not have been as bleak as first seemed. Raiola has yet to show any threat with his legs, and while he does have some mobility, it is nowhere near that of Mateer’s. Against a more traditional pocket passer, the Wolverines should be in position to fare much better.
Nebraska brought in transfers Dane Key (Kentucky) and Nyziah Hunter (Cal), who are decent, but not receivers that should scare this secondary. If Jyaire Hill, Brandon Hillman, TJ Metcalf, and friends — like Rod Moore and Zeke Berry? — keep them from consistently getting open, I really am not sure Raiola will be able (or even willing) to make the big throws needed. This is a big test for the defensive backs, but one I think they should feel pretty good about.
Perhaps the simplest way Michigan can have a good day defensively is from a familiar self-infliction. If the Nebraska staff does not trust Raiola to let it rip, the Wolverines should be all over the short stuff, like the Sooners were against Underwood. To win, the Huskers will have to let their program cornerstone air it out and live with the results; the Wolverines have a good secondary, but letting Raiola fire away and risk the consequences is how this offense could tip the scales.
