About 1 PM Arizona time on Thursday, the season came to an end. Not officially perhaps, but with Nabil Crismatt getting shelled and Noelvi Marte robbing a home run to preserve a win for the Reds, it was
clear that the Diamondbacks would need a miracle: likely three wins over the Padres combined with two losses by the Reds to a Brewers team mostly concerned with maintaining health. They fell at the first hurdle, dropping the series opener in San Diego after the Reds had won earlier in the day, and that was that.
But the very fact that it was Nabil Crismatt getting shelled says a lot about how the season went.
Around the middle of spring training, the starting pitcher depth chart looked something like this. Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt. Behind that group of five were two players (Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson) who were slated to begin the year in the major league bullpen but be kept somewhat stretched out to slot in the rotation as needed. The rotation in Reno contained further depth: Yilber Díaz, Tommy Henry, Blake Walston, and Cristian Mena all had starts with the Diamondbacks on their resumes, while Brandon Bielak had 21 starts with the Astros from 2020-2023. Also with the Aces was Casey Kelly, a journeyman with 12 career starts in the big leagues but 163 starts in the KBO. That’s a solid group of 14 potential starting pitchers. While the Diamondbacks had 14 players make a start in 2024, that included openers, and no team used more than 12 “true” starting pitchers (pitchers who started in at least 60% of their appearances).
The Diamondbacks, even including opener Jalen Beeks, are tied for the second-fewest starting pitchers used in baseball this year, so everything went according to plan, right? Wrong. Walston went down early in spring, Montgomery was out before the season started, bringing his ignominious tenure in Arizona to an end. Bielak pitched well in two starts for Reno, but then had season-ending shoulder surgery. Díaz looked fine in his first couple of outings before experiencing control issues so bad that he wound up in Rookie League. The biggest blow was, of course, the loss of Corbin Burnes to Tommy John, but Tommy Henry also went under the knife in June. Cristian Mena pitched in a travesty of a game in Cincinnati which resulted in a season-ending shoulder injury. Even the back-ups to the back-ups were getting hurt; Billy Corcoran filled in for Walston and quickly joined the injured list. Even before Merrill Kelly was traded away at the deadline, the pitching was paper-thin. The fact that 80% of the original rotation ended the year healthy clouds that fact and leads to a misunderstanding of the problem.
The bullpen also dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness to the point that Philip Abner—who began the year in Hillsboro—was appearing in relatively high leverage spots in the final weeks of the season, including entering with the bases loaded with the team facing elimination. Of the 29 players who became first-time Diamondbacks this season, 21 were pitchers, and nine of those making their major league debuts. The 29 first-time Diamondbacks does not include Ildemaro Vargas, Shelby Miller, or Crismatt, all of whom had appeared at least once for the Diamondbacks in future seasons. (Raise your hand if you remembered that Crismatt had one appearance for the 2023 D-backs.)
So it was pitchers like Crismatt who were key as the season came to an end. Crismatt had one start to his name, basically as an opener in April 2022 for the Padres. He began the season in the Phillies organization and performed fairly well as a starter in AAA, but was given his release twice during the season. The first time he re-signed with the Phillies, and the second time with the Diamondbacks. After one brief outing in Reno, he came up and became part of the rotation. He replaced Anthony DeSclafani, a better-known pitcher, but another player the Diamondbacks essentially picked up off the scrap heap. Crismatt proved a pleasant surprise before blowing up in the worst possible moment.
Yet again, it was a waste of greatness. For the Diamondbacks were the only team with two players who posted over 6 fWAR, and one of seven teams with two players who posted over 5 bWAR. Had they appeared to be in contention at the deadline, they likely would have held on to Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor.
Unfortunately, while 2025 is over, the effects of 2025 will continue. Corbin Burnes will miss much of 2026, and with the 2027 season in doubt thanks to labor strife, likely will not pitch a full season until 2028. Zac Gallen is a free agent, and while he pitched well enough down the stretch to receive a qualifying offer, whatever draft pick compensation the Diamondbacks receive will not help the team until 2028 at the absolute earliest.
Players who were expected to turn a corner and contribute simply have not done so. Jordan Lawlar has struggled both at the plate and with the glove. Tyler Locklear put up dismal numbers before getting hurt. Ildemaro Vargas and Tim Tawa ended the season splitting the first base reps.
It’s hard to win under those circumstances.
It’s also hard to assign blame. Last year, the problem seemed obvious: the 98 meltdowns ranked third in baseball, tied with the Rockies. By any measure, it was a bottom-ten bullpen, and on an 89 win team that finished tied for a postseason spot but became the first in history to be eliminated by mathematical tiebreakers, that was an obvious point of necessary improvement.
The bullpen did improve a little bit by some measures. There were just 94 meltdowns in 2025. But by WPA, they cost more wins. In 2024, the bullpen “achieved” -1.35 WPA, while in 2025 that figure cratered to -4.21. In both years, the failures of the bullpen easily map to missing the postseason. But dig deeper, and it’s hard to put all the failures on the bullpen. After all, all of those injuries to AAA starting pitchers weakened the depth, as AAA starters frequently replenish the major league bullpen. But AAA relievers also dealt with injury, notably Drey Jameson, who might have stepped into the closer role had he been healthy.
Is the bullpen Mike Hazen’s fault? It’s been a refrain throughout his tenure (at least since the 2018 Brad Boxberger disaster) that Hazen struggles to build bullpens. And the 2021 and 2022 bullpens are (by WPA) bottom-20 bullpens in the divisional era (since 1969). But Hazen has struggled to build pitching staffs in general: since Zack Greinke left in 2019, the pitching staff as a whole has been negative. It was somewhat amazing this year, given that Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez posted the second and third worst WPA figures on the team this season, that the rotation as a whole was positive. That’s thanks to Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly, and Corbin Burnes all being top-five. And Corbin Burnes being on that list tells us something else of importance.
Notably, Corbin Burnes did not appear after June 1, and he had rough outings his first few starts. He was valuable enough in a month and a half to rank fifth on the pitching staff in WPA. But also, Corbin Burnes shows that Hazen’s failure to assemble a championship pitching staff to pair with his championship offense is not for lack of trying. Burnes joins signings such as Madison Bumgarner, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery as pitchers who were acquired to stabilize the pitching staff, to take it to the next level, and none of them have done so, for different reasons.
But even without Burnes, the rotation was solid, with Ryne Nelson stepping up for the second consecutive year and Merrill Kelly being his usual mainstay. Could Hazen have done more to improve the bullpen? His biggest bullpen acquisition over the offseason was Kendall Graveman, while Shelby Miller made the team in spring training and Jalen Beeks was picked up on waivers. The bullpen was supposed to be held down by A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, and Kevin Ginkel. Ryan Thompson was probably fourth on the bullpen list, and Ryne Nelson was supposed to be out there as a long man. There were better relievers than Graveman on the market, but they came with high risk and high cost. After failing with Mark Melancon, shelling out $10 million for Kenley Jansen would not have gone over well with the fan base. Of course, Jansen went on to be one of the better relievers in the game. Every one of the projected top five relievers going into the season (Puk, Martinez, Ginkel, Thompson, and Graveman) dealt with injuries, and Ginkel and Graveman were ineffective even when healthy. It’s an astounding stat that only four relievers (Beeks, Thompson, Juan Morillo, and Miller) had more appearances than the top starters. An amazing 30% of bullpen appearances (excluding position player appearances) went to rookies.
There was a concerted effort to fix the bullpen with an eye towards next season. Whether or not it pays off remains to be seen, but since there will need to be rotation replacements for Kelly and Gallen (as well as additional depth in the case of further injury) money will need to be spent on that front, and again the bullpen will probably not get much attention. In other words, the front office knows it’s a problem and is making an effort to fix it, but is almost certain to prioritize elsewhere in free agency. That’s probably the correct decision, given the volatility of bullpens, although it will not make the fans happy.
In short, the biggest issue was health, and while it’s easy to say that Hazen should have accumulated more depth, when looking at the minor leagues it becomes apparent that the depth itself was hit just as hard by injury. There’s a limit as to the number of minor league players on a roster, and it would have been impossible to accumulate more depth. And the worst thing that Hazen could do would be to overreact to this past season and spend too much time and money fixing the bullpen when there are other areas that need greater attention.
Playoff Preview
I’m going to preview each team looking at a number of different factors to determine the rooting interests of Diamondbacks fans. Of course, as fans you have the right to root for whoever you choose, or ignore the postseason completely.
I’ve ordered the teams in ascending order from the worst to the best options. But on the whole, I think this is the most likeable playoff field to not include the Diamondbacks in a long time, if not ever.
#12: Los Angeles Dodgers
Pros: Anthony Banda is on the roster?
Cons: Everything. They’re the defending champions. They’re the Dodgers. They have more wealth than Pluto himself (the Roman god, not the dog) and Los Angeles thinks it is the center of the universe. Plus, their fans show up late, leave early, and are pretty badly behaved.
Verdict: If you root for the Dodgers, turn in your Diamondbacks’ fan card. It’s simply unacceptable.
#11: Boston Red Sox
Pros: The World Series always seems to look nice in Fenway Park.
Cons: There are no real Diamondback connections on the field. Instead, there’s Trevor Story, who did plenty of damage to Diamondback pitching while in Denver. Their more likeable players (Liam Hendriks, for example) are on the IL, and Aroldis Chapman remains a perpetrator of domestic violence, although I’ll note that he does seem to have turned his life around and is working to do better. Plus, they have been one of the more successful teams this century. In fact, they have the most World Series titles this century.
Verdict: Perhaps with ESPN opting out of their contract, we’ll get less Yankees-Red Sox rammed down our collective throats in the future. But it’ll take a lot of failure to make the Red Sox likeable again. And because of the presence of Paul Goldschmidt, I’m more likely to pull for the Yankees than the Red Sox this year, for the first time ever.
#10: New York Yankees
Pros: Paul Goldschmidt. Also Luke Weaver, one of the players acquired from the Cardinals in the Goldy trade.
Cons: They are the Yankees. All Yankees fans delight in reminding everyone how many titles the team has won, even if most of those came before most of their fans were born. They are the old money; the Dodgers are the nouveau riche and sensible people don’t like either.
Verdict: Do I want to see Goldy win a World Series (preferably while performing well) before he retires? Yes, but preferably not with the Yankees. His presence does mean that in the event of another Yankees-Dodgers I might at least watch some of it.
#9: Chicago Cubs
Pros: Carson Kelly is a former Diamondback, and Brad Keller came through the Diamondbacks’ system. If Dansby Swanson has a good series, that’s another reason to heap blame on Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa. Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of the more exciting young players in the game, and Nico Hoerner and Kyle Tucker are two more generally likeable players.
Cons: If Dansby Swanson has a good series, that’s another reason to heap blame on Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa. Justin Turner is on the Cubs. It’s been just nine years since the Cubs won, and Chicago is one of three cities with teams contesting the postseason that thinks it is the center of the sporting universe, if not the universe in general. The Cubs are one of the more annoying fan bases at Chase Field.
Verdict: Why would you do this, unless they are playing the Dodgers, Red Sox, or Yankees?
#8: Philadelphia Phillies
Pros: They do have a former Diamondback in Taijuan Walker, although he might not be on the playoff roster. They last won in 2008, which wasn’t that long ago, but is longer than some other teams.
Cons: Philadelphia itself has enjoyed a lot of sporting success in recent years, with the Eagles winning multiple Super Bowls. Philadelphia sports fans have a reputation. Bryce Harper and Walker Buehler are on the team. And do we really want to know what kind of worldwide cataclysmic event would happen if Nick Castellanos hit a home run in the World Series?
Verdict: It’s not the worst thing that could happen, but I don’t see many Diamondbacks fans rooting for the Phillies.
#7: Toronto Blue Jays
Pros: It’s been a long time since Max Scherzer was with the Diamondbacks, and he has multiple rings (one earned against the Diamondbacks) but Daulton Varsho learned his outfield defense from Dave McKay and is arguably the best outfield defender in the sport. The Varsho trade also got the Diamondbacks Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., so it was a worthwhile trade. The Blue Jays haven’t won a championship since 1993.
Cons: But even without the Blue Jays or Maple Leafs winning titles, there’s been plenty of success. The Argonauts are the defending Grey Cup champions, and the Raptors won the NBA just a few years ago. Also, while most of them were a long time ago, Toronto does have 16 “Big Four” titles and 19 Grey Cups.
Verdict: In my book, it’s hard to feel much animosity towards a team that has never really competed directly with the Diamondbacks, has gotten played by Shohei Ohtani when he signed with the Dodgers, and has to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in their division.
#6: Cincinnati Reds
Pros: Terry Francona has had a great year coming back. He’s pieced together a winning team out of a group without any outstanding players. Wade Miley would probably get a ring, but he’s out with injury. Cincinnati (the baseball team or the city as a whole) has not won a championship since 1990, and hasn’t been a powerhouse team since the 1970s.
Cons: Do you want to hear way too much about Pete Rose potentially going into the Hall of Fame, despite gambling and statutory rape? Because it’s going to be talked about. Some fans might hold the rain-affected game against the Reds, but that was really the fault of the umpires.
Verdict: Pull for them, but be prepared to mute the TV when Rose is inevitably discussed.
#5: San Diego Padres
Pros: The Padres have never won a title, and—unless you count indoor soccer or ultimate frisbee—San Diego has not won a title in professional sports since the Chargers won the AFL in 1963. The Padres are a small market team going for it.
Cons: They are also a division rival, and have a couple of pretty unlikeable players.
Verdict: Rooting for the Padres feels decidedly meh. It doesn’t feel bad, but it doesn’t feel good, either.
#4: Milwaukee Brewers
Pros: Milwaukee is a small market. They are a smartly-constructed, well-rounded team. They’ve never won a championship, although Milwaukee did a few years back and beat Phoenix in doing so. Arizona State fans might want to see Pat Murphy win.
Cons: The only Diamondbacks on the 40-man roster are Shelby Miller and Jordan Montgomery, and they are both out with injury. Plus, I doubt many Diamondbacks fans remember either one of them fondly. There was the Ryan Braun PED-enhanced season that took out the Diamondbacks, but that’s mitigated somewhat by returning the favor and eliminating the Brewers in their home park in 2023. Arizona fans might want to see Pat Murphy lose.
Verdict: Personally, I’d rather the Brewers win than most teams. But I completely understand the opposite perspective.
#3: Detroit Tigers
Pros: There are a lot of Diamondback connections. Tyler Holton and Paul Sewald are on the roster. A.J. Hinch is in the dugout, and Kirk Gibson is one of their broadcasters and a franchise legend. Tarik Skubal is one of the best pitchers in the game right now (and was once drafted by the Diamondbacks). They last won in 1984, and the city itself hasn’t won since 2008, although Cincinnati laughs at that.
Cons: Perhaps it’s the collapse down the stretch, or the scandals in the front office, but they just don’t seem as likeable as they did last year.
Verdict: I’d be perfectly happy to see the Tigers go on a run, but not as happy as with some of the other teams.
#2: Cleveland Guardians
Pros: They’re a small market team. They have the longest championship drought in the sport; it’s lasted so long that Satchel Paige was a rookie on that team. (OK, he was a very old rookie, but still.) They have one of the best players in the game right now in Jose Ramirez, who has a very real chance to become just the second 400-400 player in history. They have former Diamondback Slade Cecconi. Bo Naylor, brother of Josh, is on the roster. Steven Kwan is a diminutive left-handed outfielder who has some similarity at the plate to Geraldo Perdomo.
Cons: I’m reaching here, but Austin Hedges? Or the fact that they were able to finish their miraculous run while the Diamondbacks crashed? It’s hard to find a reason to dislike this team.
Verdict: It would be fun. It would also be unlikely. It would be decidedly 2023 Diamondbacks vibes if they somehow made it to the Series.
#1: Seattle Mariners
Pros: They’ve never won a pennant, let alone a World Series. They’ve advanced to the ALCS just twice (in 1995 and 2001). They have the most connections to the Diamondbacks; in addition to Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, there’s Dominic Canzone, Ryan Bliss (although he is on the IL), Carlos Vargas, and Gabe Speier. The last of those never played for the Diamondbacks, but he was acquired from the Braves in the ill-fated Shelby Miller deal. He was flipped for Jon Jay in 2018, the third time he was traded before he made his debut. And there’s Cal Raleigh, who I believe should win the AL MVP for hitting 60 home runs as a catcher. It also seems like a lot of Diamondbacks fans like the Mariners (and vice-versa) whether that is because both are western teams that generally are overlooked, or for another reason.
Cons: Given that the Diamondbacks aren’t in it, there’s really no negative to Seattle winning it. One could argue that the city itself has enjoyed its fair share of success, with the Seahawks, although their lone championship was over a decade ago now. They are a soccer powerhouse, with their MLS and NWSL teams both winning many championships, but that doesn’t register on nearly the same level.
Verdict: This needs to happen.
Next Up
Some things to look for in this space over the coming months: a look at the state of the 40-man roster, who might be added to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, and who might be non-tendered. Also, some stats from this past season.
