Back in April of 2023, I wrote an article explaining how poorly Anders Carlson compared to other recently drafted kicking prospects. Since the drafting of Florida kicker Trey Smack, I’ve been asked by Green Bay Packers fans to update the numbers and explain where Smack lies on the Carlson to Good spectrum.
Beyond physical skills — and by all means, it sure sounds like scouts consider Smack’s leg to be one of the strongest in recent memory — the way I’d evaluate kickers is by expected points.
Based
on the last 18 college kickers drafted, including Smack, here’s how many points each draftable college kicker is supposed to bring home based on the ranges they’re kicking from:
- PAT: 0.99 points
- 20-29 yards: 2.86
- 20-39: 2.57
- 40-49: 2.17
- 50-59: 1.84
Once you get the make/miss results from these ranges, you can assign a value (positive or negative) to kickers relative to what is expected of the average drafted kicker. Here’s how those numbers look, based on the last 18 kickers drafted:
- Joshua Karty: +14.1 points vs. average drafted kicker
- Will Reichard: +14.1
- Matt Gay: +11.4
- Andres Borregales: +10.2
- Trey Smack: +7.7
- Cade York: +6.8
- Tyler Loop: +5.7
- Cam Little: +5.3
- Evan McPherson: +5.2
- Jake Moody: +2.3
- Daniel Carlson: +1.5
- Tyler Bass: -2.2
- Sam Sloman: -4.8
- Jason Sanders: -8.5
- Chad Ryland: -15.0
- Austin Seibert: -15.4
- Anders Carlson: -28.7
Yes, Carlson was that far from a typical kicking prospect. It was that weird.
For the most part, things fare better the higher you are on this list (Sloman, Ryland, Seibert and Carlson busted, for example), but there’s no promise in NFL kicking. With that being said, Smack looks like one of the better kicking prospects in recent memory.
Most of that has to do with his long kicks, though. Under 50 yards, he was worth +1.6 points compared to the average drafted kicker. Not bad, but not great. He ranked 9th of 18 kickers there (Carlson was 16th at -12.5 points, for perspective).
Where he makes a majority of his value is on 50-plus-yarders, where he’s +6.1 points, tied for second among all kickers with Will Reichard, who was named a first-team All-Pro with the Minnesota Vikings in 2025. Only one kicker is worse than -4.7 points, Carlson, who was a terrible -16.2 after going just 5 of 17 from 50-plus while at Auburn.
So if you were worried that Smack would be another Carlson, don’t be. If he doesn’t work, it won’t be for the same reasons. On paper, Smack is a great kicking prospect and basically the polar opposite of Carlson coming out.
