Matt Chapman had been a big fantasy add for me for a while — he hit a lot of home runs, didn’t commit any errors, and played every day. He still remains a very good defender at third base, +5 by Statcast’s run value, and that’s better than any of the guys the Yankees have run out at third this year. He’s a righty with a 117 wRC+ on the season against southpaws, a damn sight nicer than what Amed Rosario has been as a platoon option.
So there’s something resembling a fit here with the Yankees. The club’s
had the 24th-best production from the so-called hot corner this year, an 83 wRC+ that’s a dozen points lower than what Chapman has managed on the year. Like the pig that made his house out of straw, the team needs sticks, and just a year ago Matt was a well-above-average hitter.
But…and there always is a but…I don’t think he’s very good, I think it’s unlikely a change in scenery will make him better, and he’s under contract for $25 million a year through 2030 — and as ever, while I don’t care about the Yankee budget, Hal and Brian do. It’s a little rudimentary at this stage of analysis, but an easy thing to look at is how a player has performed against his expected stats.
Chapman is overperforming his expected batting average, slugging and wOBA. The slugging is the big piece for me; the Yankees need a power injection more than anything. They win by being big, hairy sluggers who walk and club you to death. There is more than 100 years of evidence that that is how to build a successful New York Yankees side. A year ago, two, Matt Chapman would have fit in perfectly.
Woof.
Woof!
Although these charts are against all pitches, the biggest issue has been that Chapman’s performance against the fastball has degraded significantly. After being one of the better fastball hitters across baseball over the last five years, he’s posting negative run values against four-seamers, sinkers and cutters. While he’s managed to cut his strikeouts down, he hasn’t replaced it with plus contact and certainly hasn’t against heaters. The one thing he still does effectively is pull the ball in the air, the type of contact best suited to producing runs. Pulled fly balls to left field at Yankee Stadium aren’t as valuable as ones to right though, and Chapman’s home run production is actually pegged to be lower in the Bronx than what he’s already hit this year.
In trading for Matt Chapman you are buying a slight upgrade to the platoon you’re already running out at third base and paying 10x the salary for it. The salary and contract length probably means that the Giants are willing to eat a bit of cash but every dollar retained means a shinier prospect going to the Bay, and now you’re paying a slight discount for the slight upgrade that you now have on your team for the next three seasons.
One of the problems with the general mediocrity in baseball this season is that the trade options are equally mediocre. If Chapman could be dispensed with at a relatively low cost this offseason, maybe he would be worth dealing for just for some kind of thump coming from third base. That’s not the reality of his contract, and the opportunity cost is just too high.
