The two best words in sports: Game … 3?
No, that isn’t quite how the saying goes, but the Yankees face a winner-take-all showdown all the same. After a stupefying Game 1 defeat and a reinvigorating Game 2
victory, this neck-and-neck Wild Card Series against the rival Red Sox will require a third game to decide a winner and MLB’s final Division Series participant.
Two rookie pitchers will take the mound to begin the game tonight as the Yankees look to become the first team since the permanent institution of the 12-team playoff format in 2022 to win a Wild Card Series after dropping the opener (though it did happen in earlier years). The Yanks also seek to defeat their archrivals in October for the first time since their manager walked ‘em off 2003, after falling in ‘04, ‘18, and ‘21.
In terms of combined age, Cam Schlittler and Connelly Early are the third-youngest pitching duo to start a postseason elimination game in MLB history. It’s likely that neither of them would have been on their teams’ radar to make the playoff roster, let alone start the decisive game of this series had they not put up great results down the stretch. But here they are.
Schlittler’s rise is familiar to Yankees’ fans, of course. The Northeastern product’s quick ascent through the farm system culminated in his call-up just ahead of the All-Star break. He was the most polished internal option that New York had to try and fill the rotation vacancy left by Clarke Schmidt, who had to undergo Tommy John surgery. It was a sobering injury in a spiraling season for the Yankees, and things could easily have gone haywire were it not for Schlittler.
The rookie performed well in his MLB debut against the Mariners, then began hitting his stride in August. He memorably flirted with a no-hitter in Tampa which was broken up in the seventh inning—that was the first of five quality starts in eight total turns from that point to the end of the regular calendar. He finished the year with a flourish, laying waste to the Orioles with seven scoreless innings. That stretch and his high-octane stuff made him the clear favorite to start the third game of a Wild Card series. His confidence should be as high as it has ever been, and if he throws strikes with conviction tonight, Boston will be in trouble.
Early’s path to this moment was even shorter. Brought up to the Red Sox’ roster and making his debut on September 9 against the A’s, the 6’3 southpaw with a Max Fried-esque six-pitch mix put together four short and sweet starts to make the postseason roster. When Lucas Giolito went down with an elbow injury that forced him to miss the Wild Card Series, Early was the next man up on the depth chart.
It’s true that Early’s quality of competition in these September starts was not awe-inspiring: the best offense he faced was that of the Tigers, who scuffled mightily at the plate the entire second half. He has not faced a lineup of the Yankees’ caliber before, and he’ll have to oppose them in the most pressure-packed of circumstances. But Early’s bag is deeper than most 23-year old rookies; and it may be eclectic enough to keep the Yankees off-balance.
Expect quick hooks for both starters if they get in trouble by virtue of their postseason inexperience—particularly Early, who maxed out at 5.1 innings in September. Given what transpired in Game 1, the Red Sox have the slight edge in terms of budgeting their bullpen. The Yankees saw six relievers from Boston last night, all but one of whom should be in the mix tonight. They have most likely succeeded in eliminating Garrett Whitlock from consideration, as the righty setup man threw 47 pitches in his unsuccessful attempt to preserve the 3-3 tie.
That’s an important arm for the Yankees to dodge, but they’re in a bit of a bind with their own relief corps. David Bednar, Devin Williams, and Fernando Cruz have pitched in both games of the series. Luke Weaver may be temporarily out of the circle of trust for now after squandering the Yankees’ lead on Tuesday, and beyond Tim Hill there aren’t many relievers you’d trust if this contest is as close as the first two were. This is where Will Warren could potentially have a part to play. Might we see the Yankees’ fourth starter enter to cover an inning or two in relief?
As for lineups, Aaron Boone’s starting nine features one substitution from Game 2: Amed Rosario will start over Ryan McMahon at third base. As we saw in Game 1 and several other times throughout his tenure, Boone can often be overenamored with platoon matchups. But Early is not likely to pitch particularly deep into this game, so Boone decided to stagger his lefties and righties instead. Ben Rice, whose two-run home run in the first was an important tonesetter, remains in the order in the five-spot. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells, who teamed up on the big hit last night, will stay in there—Wells remains behind the plate and will work with Schlittler.
Boston’s lineup is significantly different tonight against a right-handed starter. Lefties Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, and Nathaniel Lowe will all start, and Jarren Duran will scoot up to the leadoff spot. As it turns out, lefties have actually fared worse against Schlittler (.623 OPS) than righties (.680). With that in mind, the veterans on the left-side infield, Trevor Story and Alex Bregman, will remain his most robust tests.
How to Watch:
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY
First Pitch: 8:08 p.m. EDT
TV broadcast: ESPN (National)
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 | ESPN Radio
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