In the Rockets player stock market, there’s a lot of buzz around AMEN, and REED shares, and controversy around SGUN, but the hidden gem in that selection of Rockets growth stocks might turn out to be JABS. (Full disclosure, I own a great number of entirely fictional REED shares.)
Quick, who is older, Jabari Smith or Amen Thompson? Yep, it’s Amen, by a little. If we can believe Amen will continue to improve, we can believe it of Jabari Smith Jr., too, I think. Now, whose upside do I think is greater?
Well, that’s obviously Amen With A Jump Shot, but that’s not to damn Jabari with faint praise. Amen With A Jump Shot is likely First Team All NBA and possibly an MVP candidate.
Jabari already has a jumpshot, and it’s getting better. It might get better still now that the Rockets have hired the consensus best shooting coach in the NBA.
Let’s do a player comparison, so you can see where Jabari might really be in terms of another player we think about maybe a lot more than we should around here.
I didn’t include it, for space reasons, but each shoots about 3FT a game. Player B shoots FTs at 80% and Player A at 67%. True shooting for A is .596 and True Shooting for B is .570.
I think we’d say player A is better than player B, but how much better? Not a lot in my opinion of traditional box score stats, and maybe not any, depending on what you’re looking for the player to do. The compared seasons are the 5th for Player A, and the 4th for Player B.
But what about defense? Well, let’s go one metric. Player A had 2.9 defensive win shares last season, Player B had 3.3. VORP sees A at 2.3 and B at .9.
Now let’s talk salary. Player A will get paid $50 million this season. Player B will get paid $23 million.
Have you guess who we’re comparing. Well, obviously Jabari Smith is one player, he’s Player B. Player A is…Rocket bete noir, Even Mobley. Mobley plays some center, but he’s still a power forward, just like Jabari.
I won’t argue that Mobley isn’t a better defender than Jabari, he is. Is he $27 million better? I don’t think he is. Remember, that salary will also likely go to fewer games for Mobley. Jabari played in 77 games last season, Mobley 65, and those look like the career trends so far.
Jabari is also a better shooter from three, for last season, and for his career, on higher volume. Despite Mobley playing inside more, he draws about the same number of FTs as Jabari, and has a close TS%.
A lot of people, angry about the Jalen Green draft pick, think of Evan Mobley as a superstar. If he’s a superstar, so is Jabari Smith Jr. I don’t think either one is, but whatever they are, they’re very close in performance as I see it. One is getting paid like a superstar, and isn’t one, and one is getting paid like a good starter, and is.
I think there’s reason to continue seeing the steady improvement we’ve seen thus far with Jabari Smith Jr. I don’t think he’s every going to be your lead scorer, or the #1 player on a contender, but he’s certainly a good player, with a chance to be better still.
I think it’s time to stop thinking of Jabari as some sort of disappointment. He’s very good, he’s arguably better or, more strongly arguable as about as good as Evan Mobley at less than half the price. That enables the Rockets overall to be better, as well. I also think it’s time to just let Evan Mobley go. I am relieved we’re not paying the guy $50 million for the next four years (topping at $60 million in 2029 – JABS is $27 in 2031). This is also a place to give Rafael Stone some flowers, with an apology, but also a request to quit making excuses about things he controls. Kind of a passive-aggressive apology, I guess.
Jabari is, still, somehow, about 23 1/2 years old at the time of this writing. He came into the NBA very young. He has, in fact, grown as a player, and I think should be counted as a development success story, if maybe not the one everyone wanted. There’s a chance he ends up shooting about 40% from three on 7-8 shots a game as soon as this season. His usage is low on the Rockets, at 18%. He probably should get more usage, based on the stats here. Some of it could come from Sengun, or Amen, honestly, and it would do the Rockets more good on the scoreboard. Perhaps FVV can make that happen a bit better than, say, Kevin Durant.
I feel as though Jabari is the Forgotten Man when we talk about the young Rockets, but he’s the one who is pretty clearly a very good NBA small forward, right now, with room to grow.
I believe JABS shares remain undervalued, with significant upside, and the recommendation is BUY.
PS – A note on Chip Engelland. I think I’ve got the way to describe Chip Engelland. He’s like a specialist physician. A shot doctor. Most people, with most illnesses, can be treated successfully by an internist, or GP. Occasionally there are tougher cases, ones that regular internists can’t treat. For those you need the specialist, the narrower focus, and advanced knowledge. That’s what Engelland is with shooting. So imagine Amen Thompson more as a case where the conventional methods of treatment haven’t worked, and it’s time to call in the specialist.
