It may seem obvious that the Diamondbacks are better than the Rockies. Up front, my expectation is for the Diamondbacks to win this four-game series against the Rockies. Nevertheless, let’s compare the teams. Top-level comparisons follow.
The 3-game Series at Coors. In the previous two seasons, these teams split their games at Coors, but the Diamondbacks won more games at Chase (where this series is played, as you know). So, after Kelly’s complete game win, I was hoping the Diamondbacks would sweep
the Rockies at Coors (which would open the door for a rare sweep of a four game series at Chase). Instead, the Diamondbacks won the series with 2 wins and 1 loss.
Offense. This season through 16 May, the Diamondbacks had more runs scored per game (4.37 vs 4.20), despite the Rockies batters having more games at Coors. The Diamondbacks OPS+ was only slightly better than the Rockies (94 vs 91) Both were below average, which surprised me.
Runners Left On Base. In games through 16 May, despite an increased runners left on base in May, the Diamondbacks had the second lowest runners left on base of 6.18 per game (The Padres were lowest with 6.09 per game). The Rockies were higher (6.59 per game).
Defense. In games through 16 May, the Diamondbacks defense is on a much higher level than the Rockies defense (9 vs negative 3 outs above average (OAA), and 17 vs 9 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).
Bullpens. This season through 16 May, the bullpens are nearly equal in shutdown performances by the bullpen (49 vs 47). Very slight edge to the Diamondbacks.
Starting Pitcher Matchups. An extremely amazing streak was that from 5 to 15 May, the Diamondbacks rotation had quality starts in 8 of their 10 games. For this series, the matchups are advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday’s Game Could Be Interesting
In Saturday’s game, two batters have favorable matchups with starting pitchers.
- Mickey Moniak (Rockies) has 2 homers and 5 RBIs in 12 PAs against Zac Gallen. Recently (13 May) he was a single short of hitting for the cycle! He was the first overall draft pick in 2016.
- Nolan Arenado (D-backs, former Rocky) has 2 homers and 3 RBIs in 28 PAs against Jose Quintana. Recently (15 May), he hit a double and walked four times (that’s 100% on base)! He won a silver-slugger five times, won a gold-glove ten times, and won a platinum glove six times.
Pitching Matchups.
Thursday, 6:40 PM MST. Eduardo Rodriguez will face TBD. On 20 May, the Rockies selected the contract of AAA long reliever Keegan Thompson. Perhaps he will start the game or the game will be a bullpen game.
Friday, 6:40 PM MST. Michael Soroka will face Tomoyuki Sugano.
Saturday, 7:10 PM MST. Zac Gallen will face Michael Lorenzen.
Sunday, 1:00 PM MST. Ryne Nelson will face Jose Quintana.
My view is that these matchups favor the Diamondbacks.
Four comparisons of starting pitchers, who will probably not face each other in this series (but in my mind might have faced each other).
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tomoyuki Sugano. Looking at earned runs and innings pitched, these two pitchers are similar because this season each was pulled from three games when they still had a shot at a quality start. This season, Rodriguez has more quality starts (4 vs 2).
Michael Soroka vs Michael Lozenzen. Looking at their last four games, they each had a clunker of 7 or 8 earned runs. Nevertheless, Soroka had a better ERA in the four games (4.64 vs 8.55).
Zac Gallen vs Jose Quintana. In their last four games, they each have one quality start. The difference is that Quintana had a better ERA in those four games (3.37 vs 7.08).
Ryne Nelson vs Tanner Gordon. Looking at only their last four games, Nelson had the better ERA (2.73 vs 6.06). On the other hand, Gordon had higher strikeouts per batter faced (24.6% vs 21.3%). Although Gordon may strikeout more batters, I’m expecting Nelson to allow less earned runs.
