When the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs meet, it’s typically two teams vying for the top spot on the totem pole in the AFC. This time, it’s two 1-2 teams desperate to keep their seasons on track. Both are clearly flawed despite their otherworldly quarterbacks, and both are looking for answers after rough starts to the year.
Here’s how the Ravens walk out of Arrowhead Stadium with their first win since 2012.
1) Limit the deep shots
Last week, I said the Ravens needed to shut down the run to make Detroit one dimensional.
Instead, Detroit ran the ball down the Ravens throats. A lot of people are noting the Ravens insistence is playing two-deep safety looks, keeping a lid on deep passes but opening up the defense against the run. This is not the week to change that.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been rather reliant on the deep ball. Mahomes has 15 pass attempts of 20 yards or more downfield with an average depth of target at 8.8, his highest since 2020. Meanwhile, the Chiefs run game hasn’t been good, with Pacheco and Hunt both averaging under 4.0 yards a carry. Mahomes is their leading rusher with just 125 yards through three games.
Even if Kansas City finds some early success, Baltimore should trust Lamar Jackson and his offense to outpace Mahomes and Co. The Ravens should dare the Chiefs to run the ball and not let them back into the game with quick scores on deep throws to Tyquan Thornton and Xavier Worthy.
2) Contain Patrick Mahomes
Just as the Chiefs have been reliant on the deep ball, the other major part of their offense is Mahomes playing out of structure. He currently leads his team in rushing and ranks second among QBs so far this season. A lot of their offense is simply Mahomes holding the ball and either chucking up a deep ball or scrambling. Therefore, keeping him in the pocket could be a good m to disrupt an offense not in rhythm this season.
The Ravens tried to do this against Josh Allen in Week 1 with a four-man rush and failed. This time around, they should either blitz Mahomes and depend on their CBs and safeties to play good coverage, or force him to step up in the pocket with a spy waiting for him. The Lions executed a similar strategy to great success against Lamar Jackson last week.
3) Get the run game going
I noted last week that the Ravens should not try to kickstart their run game against the Lions after a bad Week 2 and instead focus attacking their bad cornerback play. Derrick Henry couldn’t get anything going outside of the first drive, but this might be a good week to get the run game back on track for multiple reasons.
The Philadelphia Eagles ran the ball well against the Chiefs and the Ravens should be able to find similar success with Henry this week. The return of Isaiah Likely should help Baltimore in both the run and the pass in 12 personnel. I also think this should be the week that Keaton Mitchell gets the activation.
Mitchell has the ability to use his unique speed even if the line breaks down and break off a couple long runs, even on a limited snap count. Just look at his 2023 rookie season as an example: Mitchell racked up 489 yards on just 56 touches and only 135 snaps across eight games. That’s 8.7 yards per touch on seven touches per game and a 25% snap share when active. While that backfield didn’t have Henry, there would still seem to be room to get Mitchell a handful of opportunities every week.
It doesn’t seem like much for a back who would only be the third option in the backfield. But Henry and Jackson seem to have a ton on their plate. The offensive line is struggling and neither Justice Hill nor Rasheed Ali have had an impact on offense. The offense seems to need a true change-of-pace back who can take some of the pressure off of Henry and Jackson in the run game. Against a Spagnuolo defense that often gives Jackson fits, being able to lean on the run game will be crucial. And if Henry is stifled for the third week in a row, they need to be able to have another option that isn’t Jackson’s legs.
4) Keep Lamar Jackson upright
Lamar Jackson was sacked seven times against the Lions, tied for the most he’s ever taken in a game. It was a combination of poor blocking, good coverage with no options to throw to, and Jackson holding onto the ball too long. Keeping Jackson on his feet is paramount in this one with Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Omarr Norman-Lott and others coming after him. While the receivers getting open and Jackson being more decisive with the ball and his legs will help, the onus is on the offensive line to simply play better.
The offensive line has been one of the weakest parts of this team. The guard play has been poor and that leaks into the linemen surrounding them, pushing the tackles and center to pick up the slack. Defensive fixes aside, a large part of how far this team goes in the regular season and playoffs is going to depend on the line’s ability to keep Jackson clean and healthy. Just look at Joe Burrow across the division to see how quickly poor offensive line play can destroy multiple seasons.
With Ronnie Stanley potentially missing this game, Joe Noteboom and the Ravens’ other starting offensive linemen will need to step up for all four quarters.
