It’s a real credit to how well this team has played over the first quarter of the season to see how rarely they’ve come up empty. But on Saturday night in Texas, that’s exactly what happened. Not only was this just the 13th time they’ve lost this year, but it was one of an even smaller subset of games that they came up completely empty. The offense more or less came up with nothing. Their pitchers struggled to work clean innings. All things equal, this was one of the least effective games we’ve seen
from the Cubs all year long.
This team has been so dominant, we just haven’t had to deal with this very often. This wasn’t much fun. It’s early in the season and things are still being sorted out. However, it feels like this might be one of the worst teams the Cubs have faced all year. So this loss is a bit vexing. It’s all the more vexing given the rough matchup Sunday afternoon. There is a very real chance this team goes to Texas and leaves with only a single win. That said, even if they leave town with just the one win, they’ll still be on pace for more than 100 wins. This team could tail off a lot and still be a favorite to make the playoffs based upon the work they have done to date.
As it stands right now, if the Cubs played exactly .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d win 88 games. In the handful of seasons that have allowed three wild cards in each league, 88 wins has generally been enough to make the postseason, though 90 is the lowest number of wins that has made the postseason every time. So the Cubs have to just play nominally over .500 the rest of the way to be a postseason team. This despite a rash of early season injuries, largely focused on the pitching staff.
So the long and the short is that this one will have little bearing on the season as a whole. This is one of the days that you thank the heavens that this team has been very greedy and it has snapped up every win available to it. This one hurts less as a result. It wasn’t any fun, but it feels like a one off and it doesn’t derail the larger goals. And so, we turn the page quickly. We get back after it on Sunday afternoon. Then we finally get an off day on Monday. That’ll be just the second off day in 25 days, a welcome respite ahead. It’s one of just two days off for the Cubs in May. This is the most games (29) they’ll play in any month this year.
Three Positives:
- Ethan Roberts threw two scoreless innings, facing seven batters and walking two. The game was pretty out of reach before he got in there. But he kept it where it was and kept the Cubs for having to get any further into the bullpen.
- Dansby Swanson had one hit, a double, in three plate appearances. The Cubs had just four hits.
- Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch had a fairly undistinguishing day at the plate. Each had a single and a walk in four plate appearances.
Game 40, May 9: Rangers 6, Cubs 0 (27-13)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.051). 0-4
- Hero: Michael Busch (.049). 1-3, BB
- Sidekick: Michael Conforto (.039). 1-4, BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.221). 5 IP, 21 BF, 7 H, BB, 5 ER, 6 K (L 3-1)
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.107). 0-4
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.101). 1-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Josh Jung led off the second inning with a solo homer to start the scoring. (.109)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman batted with a runner on first and no outs in the third inning, the Cubs down one. He reached on an error setting up first and second with no outs. (.103)
Player of the Game:
Game 39 Winner: Ben Brown 276 of 328
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Conforto +13
- Shōta Imanaga +10
- Michael Busch +11
- Dansby Swanson/Jacob Webb/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton -6
- Matt Shaw -9
- Seiya Suzuki -13
Current Win Pace: 109.35 wins
Up Next: The third and final game of the season series with the Rangers is Sunday afternoon. Jameson Taillon (2-1, 4.24, 40.1 IP) starts for the eighth time this season for the Cubs. Last time out, he allowed two runs on five hits over 5.2 IP against the Reds. Small samples in the early going, but Jameson has been worse on the road (5.00 v 3.63) and during the day (4.68 v 3.52). None of that bodes too well. In fairness, the three road starts are against the Rays, Dodgers and Padres, who are all quite good.
The Rangers start polarizing figure Jacob deGrom (2-2, 3.11, 37.2). This will be his eighth start of the year. At 37 years old, what makes deGrom polarizing is that there are just 10 seasons (out of 13) that he’s made this many starts. In 13 seasons, he’s made 255 starts — fewer than 20 starts per year. He should reach 100 career wins this season. He should reach 1,600 innings later this month. Even at that, he will have a good distance to go to reach such Hall of Famers as Rollie Fingers (1,701.1) and Rich Gossage (1,809.1). Put simply, deGrom has been elite when healthy. But he just hasn’t stayed healthy in his career. He already has more career strikeouts (1,898) than some names like Hoyt Wilhelm (1,610) and Carl Hubbell (1,677). Whitey Ford is just ahead (1,956). The game has changed through the years.
In case you’ve ever wondered, the average Hall of Fame pitcher has 235 wins, 423 games started, 3,504 innings and 2,047 strikeouts. The rate at which he has accumulated WAR is elite. But he just hasn’t been healthy enough to accumulate very much of it.
Last time out, Jacob allowed six runs in just 6.1 IP. He’s lost his last two starts (both to the Yankees). Let’s keep that struggle going for him.
Find a way to survive deGrom’s start. Win a game.
Go Cubs.
