The biggest question mark for the Michigan Wolverines is what Morez Johnson decides to do next. Next week is a big one for Johnson, being one of three members of the National Championship team to be at the NBA Combine. Many experts are estimating Johnson is a fringe-lottery pick and assume that should be enough to keep his focus towards the next level if he has a strong showing at the combine.
If that’s the case, the Wolverines will be replacing four starters from the team that won it all. That’s
a tough task for any team, even with some elite returning talents like Trey McKinney and Elliot Cadeau. The good news is Dusty May crushed the transfer portal yet again and provided options for the team when it comes to replacing Johnson and Aday Mara.
At the end of April, Michigan announced several players joining the program. In reviewing this, a few things stood out as items to reference if Johnson does indeed stay in the draft.
First was something May said about incoming 7-foot-3 big man Marcus Moller, who stepped away from basketball midseason due to a cancer diagnosis. May said that, “we believe (Moller) can contribute early.”
If that’s the case, roster flexibility becomes really interesting. What if (and it’s a big if) Moller winds up being a starting-caliber player?
“He really plays with a poise beyond his years.” May said of Moller in his program introduction. “He can handle, pass and shoot, and he processes the game quickly, which fits our pace-and-space style. He is comfortable making simple plays, stretching the floor, and guarding multiple positions.”
Imagine a world where Michigan either starts, or in some rotations, shares the floor with the crown jewel of the portal class, 7-foot-2 Cincinnati transfer Mustapha Thiam. As a Big 12 honorable mention last season, Thiam had 21 games where he scored in double-digits. He led the Big 12 in blocks as a freshman at UCF, and his offensive game improved dramatically as a sophomore at Cincinnati. There is untapped potential there, and May hasn’t been quiet about how excited he is about this addition.
“You don’t find many players of his size and ability to move the way he does,” May said. “He protects the rim, rebounds, runs the floor and changes the game defensively. He’s still improving, too, so we’re ready to get to work.”
Thiam is the favorite to start at center, but it’s interesting to see the similarities in praise May has for both the veteran Thiam and the freshman Moller regarding their mobility and defensive capabilities. May has started multiple 7-footers in the past, so he has that in his back pocket to test out this offseason again.
The other scenario is just as good (although less fun to conceptualize) and that’s Tennessee transfer J.P. Estrella. The tendencies between Estrella and Johnson are vast. They are both a similar size, play with physicality in the post and have an edge to them that makes it really difficult for opponents to handle. Just read the way May spoke about him.
“J.P. brings size, toughness and a lot of energy to our front court. He knows what it takes to win at a high level and plays the game the right way. He runs the floor, rebounds, competes on every possession and gives us a strong presence around the basket. Just as important, he’s a great teammate and someone who fits exactly what we’re building here.”
If that was a blind quote about any Michigan basketball player current or future, Johnson would likely be the name that pops in your mind.
Looking at the metrics makes things very interesting. Per 100 possessions, Estrella has an offensive rating at 129.2 and a defensive rating of 105.9 — Johnson’s was 135.4 and 96.1, respectively. In no way am I saying Estrella is a better player than Johnson, but Estrella was extremely efficient in his limited minutes last season. May is banking that his production can stay at that level with a larger role.
Beyond Estrella and Moller, there are some intriguing options for the Wolverines that could see playing time. LSU transfer Jalen Reed has the potential to play at either the 3 or the 4 at 6-foot-10 if he can stay healthy. Freshman Quinn Costello was a McDonald’s All-American and has really high upside, especially if he can add some muscle to his 6-foot-10 frame. Then there is Oscar Goodman; Director of Player Development Drew Williamson was on the “Defend the Block” podcast recently and said, “I don’t want to compare him to Yax, but just the versatility to be able to play multiple positions will be something to be able to stand out for him.”
A return for Johnson would be significant and would add a star player back to this team. At the same time, the list I named above also has some high upside, even if not fully proven. The front court is going through significant changes with the loss of Lenderborg, Mara and potentially Johnson, but there is a lot to like and a ton of different avenues May can take in replacing that production.
