The final week of the regular season is upon us and the Mariners have one last chance to throw some chaos into the AL West race with a two game series against the Astros. This season has been supremely disappointing, and the team has been frustrating to watch, but these are the last Mariner games we’ll see until next year — and the looming labor lockout by the owners could extend that hiatus even further. Enjoy them.
The Astros were just swept by the Braves this past weekend, dropping them from first
place in the division. They’re just a game behind the Rangers and hold the tiebreaker if the two teams should finish with matching records. Between the injuries and ineffectiveness across the pitching staff, the offense — and more specifically, Yordan Alvarez — had been carrying the team through the summer. Unfortunately, the team has scored more than four runs in a single game just once over their last 10 games. It’s a terrible time for a slump.
Yordan Alvarez’s shot at winning the AL Triple Crown looks pretty slim right now. A late season slump, spurred on by a nagging ankle injury, has dropped him to second in the AL in home runs and RBIs. He’d have to have a monster week to have any hope of catching Pete Alonso for the RBI lead; Alvarez trails Alonso by six right now. The other batter who is swinging the bat well right now is Jeremy Peña; he has posted just an 89 wRC+ in September, but he collected 10 hits and three home runs last week. The rest of the lineup is really struggling; Jose Altuve (96 wRC+ in September), Cam Smith (60), Daulton Varsho (42), and Christian Walker (17) are all mired in slumps this month.
Probable Pitchers
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
- Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters
For a pitcher with such a long history against the Mariners, it’s been nearly three years since Cristian Javier has pitched against them (his last outing against Seattle came on September 26, 2023). He blew out his elbow early in 2024 and missed most of last year recovering from the resultant Tommy John surgery. At his peak, he leaned heavily on a backspinning four-seamer and a slow sweeper as his primary weapons, essentially acting as a two-pitch pitcher. After his surgery, he’s expanded his repertoire a bit to include a changeup and a cutter. He’s bounced between the rotation and the bullpen throughout this year but it looks like he’s finally found his groove down the stretch; over his last six outings (five starts, one bulk relief appearance) he’s running a 3.77 ERA and a 3.72 FIP.
The Astros promoted Ethan Pecko in mid-August to take the place of Tatsuya Imai in the rotation. He was the team’s fourth ranked prospect on their preseason list and looked serviceable with a 4.25 FIP in 17 appearances in Triple-A before his debut. His best pitch is his four-seam fastball which has given minor league batters fits when he’s able to locate it at the top of the zone. He has five other pitches in his repertoire but most of his secondary pitches look average at best. He’s got decent command and uses his wide arsenal to keep batters guessing. It’s a back-of-the-rotation profile, but that’s exactly what the Astros have needed this summer. The Astros have used an opener in front of Pecko the last two times his turn has come up in the rotation — I’d expect them to do the same on Wednesday.
The Big Picture:
While the Mariners try to keep the Astros from gaining any ground in the AL West, the Rangers are hosting the Mets.
