The last time I wrote a series preview, it appeared as if the Cardinals were not eligible for the draft lottery. Derrick Goold has since reported that they are eligible and the main reason is that when they got the #7 overall pick, that didn’t count as a lottery pick. I begin this post this way because the Cardinals lost a series to the Rays, who do have a worse record (barely) but have +33 run differential so they’re having a weird season. Also, it’s not as bad to lose anymore, even though honestly
the odds of getting a top six pick are not high at all and it’s going to be very difficult to increase it to a meaningful level at this point.
Because of that, I’m still rooting for wins. There are 12 teams with a worse record than the Cardinals and one team with the same record. Eight of those teams have 60 or less wins. That means a team playing .462 ball needs to be five games better than the Cardinals over the next 31 games. The Diamondbacks have the same exact record and the Guardians have the same amount of wins. The Guardians in particular are in a freefall. I just can’t quite root for what’s necessary to significantly improve the odds.
One of those teams below the Cardinals and below 60 wins is the Pittsburgh Pirates. These Pirates come with a twist: we aren’t facing Paul Skenes. For I think the first time since Skenes was promoted, Skenes will not pitch in a series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Honestly, the Pirates don’t feel like a 57 win team when one of the pitchers in a series is Paul Skenes, and they do when he isn’t pitching in a series.
I’m going to be a little less detailed because the Cardinals have faced the Pirates a lot this year already. You kind of know the deal. They are bad offensively as a team with a team wRC+ of 82 on the year. That’s only a little better than Victor Scott. They’re doing that as a team. Spencer Horowitz has not been the savior they were hoping for with just a 98 wRC+ and the batted ball data is not much better. He got traded for Luis Ortiz, who might not ever play baseball again (under investigation) so they’re probably not going to regret that trade anyway.
They have also since traded Ke’Bryan Hayes. In his place is Isiah Kiner-Falefa as the regular 3B, which if that’s the best you got to trade him, I don’t know why you trade him (the answer is money). Although longer-term, at least I think, that probably goes to Jared Triolo who is sure on a heater. He has a 135 wRC+ in the 2nd half, and that doesn’t include his 2-2 day yesterday with a BB and a homer. To give you an idea how bad he was in the 1st half, his season wRC+ is still just 82. Triolo at least appears to be a good defender at 3B, but he’s playing SS these days and has been -1 OAA in 237 innings. Triolo does have 892 PAs that says he’s a bad hitter though and he has a .388 BABIP in the 2nd half, so we’ll see if it’s just a hot streak or if he figured something out. He does have actual power, which he never had before.
Another player with a great 2nd half is Tommy Pham, which is really unfortunate timing for the Pirates, because I’m sure they’d have loved to trade him for something. He has a 136 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Joey Bart has fallen off a lot, which has led to them giving more playing time to Henry Davis at catcher. That’s a developmental move, because he has been terrible. He has a 51 wRC+ in 221 PAs. Andrew McCutchen is still there and has been an average hitter. So has Nick Gonzales.
To finish off the offense, Bryan Reynolds looks like he was a very poor choice for the Pirates to extend as he’s barely above replacement level. He’s been a below average hitter and a poor fielder. Jack Suwinski has been awful, although he has a pretty good xwOBA and a .175 BABIP, so some unluckiness there for sure. Also only 133 PAs this year too.
As far as the bullpen, they traded David Bednar and Caleb Ferguson, who are replaced by Dennis Santana and I guess nobody. Santana has a 2.32 ERA, but completely mediocre advanced stats. They have one lefty in the bullpen and that’s Andrew Heaney, who has been kicked out of the rotation. He hasn’t pitched in eight days. I assume we’ll see him in a bulk innings role. He didn only throw 0.2 innings in his only outing since the move though. They are using a bulk innings approach with Bubba Chandler, who pitched 4 good innings in relief in his debut. He pitched Friday, and I assume we’ll see him in this series.
Isaac Mattson does have a 27% K rate, but does have a 4.40 xFIP. Honestly, the rest of the bullpen is not good. But considering Chandler is probably going to finish one of these games and Heaney is a lefty who might throw a bunch of innings in another, they might not need to use many of the not very good pitchers. If the Cardinals have a lead when the starter leaves though, they should take advantage of the weak arms that will probably be used.
Monday – 6:40 PM
Mitch Keller (4.34 ERA/3.76 FIP/4.24 xFIP) vs. Michael McGreevy (4.42 ERA/3.39 FIP/4.19 xFIP)
Keller is a good pitcher who has had some success against the Cardinals. He is also a pitcher who is really on a cold streak. He’s allowed at least 5 earned runs in three of his last four starts. Even in his one good start in that span, he had 3 strikeouts to 3 walks. So he’s struggling pretty hard at the moment. Don’t worry, Mitch, your remedy is the St. Louis Cardinals offense.
I said in last week’s post that McGreevy needs a higher strikeout rate long term to be successful, and honestly games against the Pittsburgh Pirates are exactly the kind of team who will help him do that. He faced the Pirates last year and was only asked to face 10 batters in a relief outing and he struck out 4 Pirates. That’ll play.
Tuesday – 6:40 PM
Johan Oviedo (4.50 ERA/4.78 FIP/4.64 xFIP) vs. Andre Pallante (5.17 ERA/4.61 FIP/3.93 xFIP)
And honestly, Pallante is another player who might benefit from facing the Pirates. He threw 7 scoreless innings his last time facing them, although he did only strike out three. What he did do and what he needs to do to be successful is get a ton of groundballs in that game. And as a team, the Pirates hit the ball on the ground more than all but two teams in baseball.
And old friend Johan Oviedo is finally healthy. He’s only made two starts and pitched just 6 innings, but 5 of those were in his last outing and it was five innings of one-run ball. If his performance thus far is any indication, expect strikeouts and walks against him.
Wednesday – 6:45 PM
Braxton Ashcraft (2.70 ERA/2.51 FIP/3.48 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (4.33 ERA/3.26 FIP/2.99 xFIP)
Now that I’m apparently talking about history against the Pirates for everyone, Gray has had one good start, one great start, and one not great start. He allowed one, but only went five innings early, then he threw 7 scoreless. And in his latest, he allowed four, although he allowed three of those runs in the 7th in a game where the Cardinals didn’t score.
Ashcraft’s numbers are misleading because he’s pitched most of the year in the bullpen. Except not in the way you expect. He has a 28% K rate and 3% BB rate in his four starts. Although two of them were “starts.” He faced 10 total batters in one of them, and lasted 3.1 innings in the other as they stretched him out. And a fourth was against the Rockies. He did last five in his two most recent starts. Chandler will probably piggyback this start (like he did on Friday), although if the Oviedo one doesn’t last long, it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s where he pitches instead.
Thursday – 1:15 PM
Mike Burrows (4.23 ERA/4.37 FIP/3.92 xFIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (5.17 ERA/5.00 FIP/4.81 xFIP)
That’s right it’s a four-game series. Somehow, the Cardinals avoid Paul Skenes in a four-game series. That’s either lucky – if you’re interested in winning – or unlucky – if you’re interested in watching a great pitcher. That said, boy the Pirates seem to be pretty good at developing pitching now. Between Burrows, Ashcraft and now Chandler, none of those guys had any MLB experience coming into the season and the first two have good numbers in a good sample. To be determined on Chandler, but he’s a big time pitching prospect. Skenes too obviously, but he kind of came fully formed.
Let’s hope Mikolas can have a good start. I don’t know what else to say.
