The Diamondbacks are the hottest team in baseball. Full stop. They have won nine of their last ten. They’ve done it with great starting pitching, better than average offense, and they’ve even mixed in some spectacular defense from time to time. Yes, it comes against two of the worst teams in baseball, but even when you’re playing bad teams, you still have to beat them, and to do so in such a stretch is both impressive and exactly what they needed to do. They’ve got to keep the momentum up against the top teams now,
but this is exactly the kick start they needed.
They go from the bottom of the NL West, to the top of the AL West. The AL West is slightly less competitive than the NL West, though, so that isn’t as scary as it could be. The Mariners are currently first in their division, but that only requires a 28-29 record at the moment. They’re on a hot streak of their own, however. They just swept division rival Oakland. We’ll see which sweep of a sub-.500 team holds up more.
Game 1 — 5/29, 7:10 PM: Zac Gallen (-0.3 bWAR, 3-4, 4.80 ERA/85 ERA+, 1.43 WHIP) vs. George Kirby (1.0 bWAR, 5-4, 3.54 ERA/110 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP)
Someone should do the math on how much money each mediocre start costs Gallen. At the rate he’s going, it’s going to be a lot. His hopes of a bounce back campaign to secure the multi-year, nine figure contract is waning, and he just hasn’t done much of anything particularly of note this season. The month of May has been especially rough after a decent start to the season in April. He has given up more than four earned runs in three of his five starts so far, and gave up three in an additional start just for good measure.
George Kirby has had a solidly above average season so far, but he’s been on a bit of a downward trend lately. In seven of his first nine starts, he held opponents to two runs or less, and he did not give up more than four. He also has been consistently pitching into the sixth inning or longer. However, his last two starts against the Padres and the Royals have been out of the ordinary. HE gave up six earned runs to the Padres, and five runs, three earned, to the Royals. The Padres game he got bit by the home run ball, but the Royals it seems it was just the errors that held him back. The Diamondbacks have power, and they have the speed to force misplays, so they’ll be looking to recreate those games.
Game 2 — 5/30, 7:10 PM: Ryne Nelson (-0.3 bWAR, 2-3, 4.65 ERA/88 ERA+, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Bryan Woo (0.7 bWAR, 4-3, 3.82 ERA/102 ERA+, 1.03 WHIP)
Don’t look now, but Ryne Nelson has been actually rather successful in the month of May. He has an ERA of 2.36 for the month, with the crowning achievement being his eight innings of one run ball against the Rockies in his most recent start. The question becomes how sustainable it is. He has a FIP of 4.29 for the month, almost exactly two runs higher than his month of May ERA. The strikeouts are inconsistent, the walks are high, and he’s basically a guarantee for a home run per start. Not promising for long term success.
In 2026, Woo has had similar results to Kirby. About a month ago, Woo had back to back starts where he gave up seven and six runs repsectively, but beyond that, it’s been good starts. One thing to note, the only home runs he has given up this year came in those two previously mentioned bad starts. Other than that, he has kept the ball in the park all season long. He’s given up two walks in each of his last four starts, so he will give you those free base runners. The Diamondbacks should probably plan on building innings, not mashing home runs, for this one.
Game 3 — 5/31, 1:10 PM: Merrill Kelly (-0.1 bWAR, 5-3, 5.25 ERA/78 ERA+, 1.41 WHIP) vs. Bryce Miller (0.4 bWAR, 1-0, 2.25 ERA/176 ERA+, 1.00 WHIP)
After a very rough first four months, Merrill Kelly is starting to look much more like the Mainstay that we thought Hazen had signed this off season. In his most recent four starts, he has thrown at least six innings, twice going seven, and a complete game just for good measure. The Giants tagged him for a couple runs, three in their first start against him and two in their second, but nothing crazy. With how rough his first four starts were, it will take a while before the stats start to look better, but he’s making progress.
This will be Miller’s fourth game, but third start as his last appearance was actually out of the bullpen. Not much to go off of so far, of course, but early returns have been positive. He’s gone at least five innings in all of his appearances, including his relief outing, and he has yet to give up more than two runs.
Conclusion
We aren’t picking on the bottom of the standings anymore, so the Diamondbacks should expect the Mariners to put up a bit more of a fight. That being said, this is a division leader that is sub-.500. Still plenty of room for them to continue padding their win column. I expect them to take two out of three in fairly low scoring affairs.
