What happened? It’s already week 10 and Iowa State has only 2 home games remaining in the 2025 season. It all feels lost with the way things have gone for the Cyclones on this losing streak. However, I will be in Ames on Saturday, and I’ll be there in 3 weeks when Kansas comes to town. This season has renewed my enjoyment of attending games. I was on the fence about season tickets this year, but I am glad I got them, and plan to again next year, and hopefully many more years after that. The only downside
is not being able to watch all the games I bet on. That goes double for this week, because ESPN and YouTube TV just failed to come to an agreement, and now most of the country will lose access to their football games. I am a customer, as I’m sure many of you are as well. I am fascinated to see who takes the blame. I can’t stand either side of this argument, but I hold special contempt for ESPN/Disney. This is such an obvious ploy to get people to spend $35/month on their direct to consumer streaming product. NO THANKS. I just want to watch all the games in one place. So to ESPN I say, stop making your product terrible and more expensive. Get a deal done.
This is all going to hit the Big 12 in an extremely annoying way, with college basketball season starting on Monday and also affected. I have my gripes about what it takes to watch all the Big 12 basketball games too, but that’s a rant for another column. We’re in the last month of the regular season, and I need some winners. The picks have been stuck in neutral for awhile, and there are some tough games to pick this weekend. Usually when I’m very confident I don’t do well, so maybe this is the change of pace I need.
THE GAMES
West Virginia (2-6, 0-5) at #22 Houston (7-1, 4-1)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Houston -12.5 | O/U: 48.5
We might need to start a dialogue about the direction of the Big 12. When I look at the top of the standings, I see 3 teams that were added to the league from the G5 ranks in 2023: Cincinnati, BYU, and Houston. That makes me uncomfortable. It was supposed to take longer than this for these programs to catch up. The legacy Big 12 schools have some work to do.
Pick: Houston -12.5
Central Florida (4-3, 1-3) at Baylor (4-4, 2-3)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPNU | The Line: Baylor -3 | O/U: 59.5
What am I missing here? Baylor is only giving 3 points to directional Florida? This could be a trap but it could also be a gift from the oddsmakers because Florida Middle is not good. Give me the Bears in a blowout.
Pick: Baylor -3
Arizona State (5-3, 3-2) at Iowa State (5-3, 2-3)
Kickoff: 12:00pm | TV: TNT | The Line: Iowa State -8.5 | O/U: 49.5
I don’t even want to imagine the meltdown that might happen if Iowa State loses this game. I think we’ll win, but I’m not comfortable laying that many points with this team, right now. What I do think will happen is that Iowa State will have success running the ball, which keeps the clock moving. Arizona State is starting Jeff Sims at QB, and if you’ve payed attention to college football in the last 9 years, you’ve probably seen him start a game by accident. He can’t throw the ball. Couple that with not having a top WR and I don’t see a path to ASU scoring a lot of points.
Pick: Under 49.5
#13 Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1) at Kansas State (4-4, 3-2)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Texas Tech -7.5 | O/U: 51.5
I like this pick so much it scares me. K-State might have figured some things out. Not only do I think they cover the spread, I think they win this game outright and throw some chaos into the race for Dallas.
Pick: Kansas State +7.5
Oklahoma State (1-7, 0-5) at Kansas (4-4, 2-3)
Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Kansas -24.5 | O/U: 54.5
I have a confession to make: I think Kansas is going to be really good at basketball this year. Bill Self did the “build an all-star team of transfers” thing and it failed miserably for 2 years. This year, he has a top 5 pick as a freshman to lead the team in scoring, and a handful of complimentary pieces from the portal. He stuck around through health stuff for a reason. I fear that they’ll be back at the top of the league soon.
Pick: Over 54.5
Arizona (4-3, 1-3) at Colorado (3-5, 1-4)
Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Arizona -4 | O/U: 52.5
Last week I gave out Colorado at Utah in what may be the worst pick I’ve ever given. The game was over in 4 minutes and Colorado had I think -250 yards in the game. Any time that happens and you can pick that team again, you have to do it. Don’t trust Arizona as a road favorite here.
Pick: Colorado +4
#17 Cincinnati (7-1, 4-1) at #24 Utah (6-2, 3-2)
Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Utah -10.5 | O/U: 54.5
I’m not touching the spread. It makes no sense and is an obvious trap. Cincy has a capable offense that can get us 20+ points here. I’m counting on a lot from Utah, but I just think they’ll be able to keep the ball moving forward all night. The offense is better in SLC when its dark out.
Pick: Over 54.5
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Wake Forest +10.5 at Florida State
Florida State should not be favored by 10 points against anyone in the ACC right now. This is an unbelievable stat but they are 1-11 straight up in conference games the last 2 years. Wake is sneaky not bad and has a chance at bowling. Let’s count on them getting double digits to keep this one close.
Enjoy the games!
Season Record: 42-35-1 (+3.5 units)
