Actually yes, it’s probably way too early for this but we’re doing it anyway, TOC. The first official College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings don’t come out until November 4 but let’s take a look at who
might be impressing the CFP committee (which former Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is serving on this year) as we get into the middle third of the season.
First, let’s quickly review the structure of this year’s playoff. The 2025 version of the CFP will feature 12 teams for the second year in row after expanding from four teams following the 2023 season.
Of the 12 teams, five will be automatic bids and awarded to the highest-ranked conference champions. This will presumably be the conference championship game winners from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC, plus the highest-ranked “Group of Five” team that wins its conference championship game. This could be, for example, Memphis from the American Athletic Conference, Boise State from the Mountain West, or the champion from Conference USA, MAC, or Sun Belt.
The seven highest-ranked remaining teams, regardless of conference, will fill out the rest of the field. There are no limits on how many teams from a single conference can qualify from this at-large pool and it seems reasonable to expect that these at-large selections could feature several teams from the Big Ten and SEC.
The four highest-ranked teams in the final CFP rankings, regardless of conference, will receive first round byes. This is different from the 2024 playoff where the top four conference champions got byes. The teams ranked 5-12 will play in the first round games, which will be held at the site of the higher-ranked team. The Cotton, Orange, Rose, and Sugar Bowls will host the quarterfinal games while the semi-finals will be played at the Fiesta and Peach Bowls. The CFP Championship will be in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium on January 19, 2026.
Reseeding does not happen after each round and there are no restrictions on rematches or in-conference match-ups.
Since there are no CFP rankings to look at yet, let’s just use the Associated Press rankings for now, where there has already been a lot of movement from the pre-season rankings. The table below shows the AP rankings for each week of the season so far.
One note here – Boise State, Tulane, and Memphis were not actually ranked #12 in any of these AP polls but, remember, the playoff field will include the five highest-ranked conference champions so this must include a team outside of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC. Also, in some weeks, the Big 12 did not have a team ranked in the top 12 but the champion from that conference will very likely be in the CFP. So, rankings were adjusted accordingly in the table above.
Texas opened the season at the top but fell to Ohio State in week 1. The Buckeyes have held the top spot since that season-opening win while Texas has hung around in the 7-10 range. Miami has risen from pre-season #10 all the way to #3 while Oregon is up from #7 to #2 after a big win at Penn State on Saturday.
Clemson started out the year ranked #4 but sits at just 1-3 after week 6, well outside the rankings. Notre Dame also finds themselves on the outside looking in after dropping their first two games to Miami and Texas A&M.
Alabama started the year at #8 but fell out of the rankings after a season-opening loss at Florida State. The Tide, however, have returned to #10 after defeating Georgia on Saturday.
In all, 20 teams have appeared at least once in the first six iterations of the AP poll. Six teams that appeared in the pre-season poll remain in after week 6:
Ohio State and Oregon appear to have a decent chance at remaining undefeated before possibly facing each other in the Big Ten Championship game. Regardless of the outcome of that potential game, both teams should be comfortably in the 12 team playoff if this scenario actually plays out.
It’s hard to imagine Penn State going to Columbus and getting a win if they couldn’t beat Oregon at home. But, if Penn State gets by Indiana at home, they are likely still in at 10-2. And Ohio State can’t possibly lose to Michigan again. Right? Surely they must have this figured out by now. It’s also difficult to envision Oregon losing to Indiana at home, although their season-ending rivalry game at Washington could be tough.
Outside of the Big Ten, even if Miami falls at Florida State, they should still be in great shape to make the field if they don’t get tripped up elsewhere. In the SEC, Texas and Alabama both face brutal schedules. It will be interesting to see if the committee considers a 9-3 team from the SEC.
Another six teams did not appear in the top 12 of the pre-season poll but are there now:
In the SEC, Mississippi is coming off a big win against LSU but has two very difficult conference road games remaining. Even if Ole Miss drops both of those, they could still have a strong case as a 10-2 SEC team. We’ll find out a lot more about Oklahoma as they move through their difficult schedule. So far, they have home wins against Michigan and Auburn but there is certainly a chance to impress the committee even more with that schedule. The same could probably also be said for Texas A&M, who already has a win at Notre Dame.
Indiana probably needs to win at least one of their games at Oregon or Penn State to have a chance. I’m not sure the committee would take a 10-2 Hoosiers team, even with their 63-10 beatdown of Illinois two weeks ago.
Texas Tech and Arizona State, along with Iowa State, appear likely to battle it out for the Big 12 crown and it will be interesting to see if a second team from this conference receives consideration from the committee.
There are six more teams that started the year among the top 12 but have since fallen out:
In the ACC, Clemson started the year #4 but has tumbled to a 1-3 start and appears to be well out of the playoff picture.
Notre Dame, as mentioned above, got off to a rough 0-2 start but, if they win out, it seems like a 10-2 Notre Dame team is assuredly in the playoff. The Irish could also knock Boise State out of the playoff picture with a win over the Broncos this week.
A 10-2 Boise State team could be on the outside looking in behind whoever wins the American Athletic Conference where Navy, Memphis, and North Texas are all currently undefeated and Tulane sits at 4-1 with a loss to Mississippi.
In the SEC, both Georgia and LSU have plenty of opportunities for big wins while moving on from their losses this past weekend.
Finally, Tulane and Iowa State have also appeared in the top 12 at some point.
Could any other teams not mentioned here have an impact? Of course. Two teams from the Big Ten come to mind. First, Illinois. The Illini bounced back from a humiliating loss at Indiana by beating USC at home on a last second field goal to get to 4-1. Their toughest remaining game is hosting Ohio State on October 11. Other than that, the schedule seems very manageable. However, Illinois would probably need to pull off the massive upset against the Buckeyes to have a chance. It’s just hard to see a 10-2 Illinois team, whose best win would be against USC or at Washington (the week following their game against OSU), getting in.
The other Big Ten team will make us all cringe – Michigan. The Wolverines are 3-1 with the loss at Oklahoma. They have to travel to USC and, of course, East Lansing, before hosting Ohio State to close the season. If Michigan loses to Ohio State but wins the rest of their schedule, a 10-2 UM team, unlike a 10-2 Illinois, is getting into the playoff. A horrible thought.
What about our Spartans? What if the offense continues to develop and the defense somehow figures out how to get off the field at least once in a while? We saw the offense come to life after a slow start in 2013 so can we entertain the same dream for the defense this year? If Michigan State wins two of three against Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State then surely they would have to merit consideration at 10-2. Of course, this would have to also include wins at Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa plus UCLA at home and Maryland at Ford Field. It would all have to start with a win at Nebraska on Saturday so perhaps best for us to just focus on that right now.
So what does the playoff field look like right now? Let’s take a stab at it, at least which teams – no way am I going to guess at seeding now:
- ACC: Miami and Florida State both get in
- Big 12: Texas Tech, Iowa State, OR Arizona State – only one gets in
- Big Ten: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State. I will NOT say Michigan because that means they beat MSU. So the Big Ten doesn’t get a fourth team even if Illinois and/or Indiana is 10-2.
- SEC: Four teams get in. I have no idea which four. Let’s say Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas A&M. Oklahoma is without starting quarterback John Mateer for about a month after having surgery on his hand following last week’s win against Auburn. This means Mateer will miss OU’s games against Texas, South Carolina, and possibly Mississippi.
- G5: American Conference Champion (Memphis or Navy, let’s say Memphis)
- Notre Dame gets in at 10-2.
If my weekly picks are any indication, I’ll have fun looking back at this after the field is announced to see how wrong I was.
What do you think, TOC? Who do you have as your 12 teams in the CFP, or at least which teams from the Big Ten will make it? Leave your predictions in the comments.
