It took one extra inning to get there, but ultimately, the result was the same. The Cubs have now won seven straight and 13 in a row at home. They’ve won 17 of 20. The team is scorching hot. For my point of reference, I’m going to say this. When a team digs itself an early hole, say this year’s Phillies. People will start talking at some point about the number of teams you have to pass, etc. But I always say this. Ignoring that skid, was your team the kind of team that you came into the season, or at this point have reason
to believe that they can have a 15-5 type stretch somewhere in the season. In my head, 15-5 is kind of the upward bounds of reality. That’s a 10 over .500 stretch. It can change the trajectory of your season. A 17-3 stretch? Totally insane.
The Cubs have moved themselves 14 games relative to .500. From two under to 12 over. Holy cow, man. At 12 over, if the Cubs play .500 the rest of the way, they win 87 games. This team is very likely to play over .500 the rest of the way. Certainly not this far over .500. But whatever your expectations are and were, you may want to consider revising them upwards. There are no guarantees, but this team is very likely to reach at least 90 wins.
Credit to this team for staying focused and grinding and battling start to finish. This is the same story, just a different day. Jameson Taillon wasn’t amazing, but he battled and he got the job done. He allowed a long home run just one out before he would have notched another quality start. But two runs over 5.2 innings is quite good. That’s about what you hope for in the modern game. If this was a day when the offense was rolling, he probably gets a chance to finish that inning. Though he had already thrown 100 pitches. So maybe not. It is increasingly rare for a guy to go past 100 pitches. Four Cub relievers combined to throw 3.1 scoreless innings of relief. They allowed one hit and one walk amongst the four of them. They struck out four.
On the offensive side, the Cubs had trouble pushing runs across. Credit to the Reds pitchers for that. The Cubs had eight hits and drew seven walks. Again, this is the same old story. They just grinded and applied pressure. Michael Busch’s game-tying homer in the eighth was crushed. But the rest of the offense was singles and walks. The game winning hit by Michael Busch was just an in-between hop that gobbled up Elly De La Cruz at short. Elly is usually a very good defensive player. I think that ball just needed to be any other vector and he makes that play. A little right, a little left, a little different bounce. It got on him just quick enough and just awkward enough for him not to get his glove on it. The really surprising part of it was that Elly didn’t even touch it. Never mind the out. He needed to keep that one in the infield, somehow, some way.
He didn’t. Dansby came around and scored the ghost run easily and the Cubs had done it again. How many times have I said it? Find a way. They found a way. This was in no way one of their prettier wins. I don’t know about you, but I’m not checking for style points. A win is a win. Next.
For the record, the Cubs had a 17.7 percent chance to win after six. They had a 24.8 percent chance to win after seven. Pretty crazy to do that two straight days. As it turns out, exactly five years ago, the Cubs walked it off on May 4 and May 5. Just what I said yesterday, with a long history, you’ve largely done everything at some point. Unsurprisingly the last time the team won 24 of the first 36 was 2016. They also did it in 1969.
Three Positives:
- Michael Busch had the game-tying homer and the game-winning bouncer up the middle. Few teams have seen as much left-handed pitching as the Cubs have in the first just shy of quarter of the season. It’ll be interesting to see if guys like Busch and Crow-Armstrong even out some. I realize some of that happens because they have so many key contributors who are lefty, but not every team just has a ton of lefties to utilize.
- Alex Bregman had a hit and a walk. He drove in the other run.
- Ryan Rolison continues to sparkle. Navigating the ghost runner is tricky. He came up with two strikeouts to start the inning, then worked around a walk to escape unscathed and pick up his second win in two days.
As always a ton of hat tips in a close game. Any one of which you pull out, probably turns this into a loss.
Game 36, May 5: Cubs 3, Reds 2 (24-12)
WPA GRAPH
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Michael Busch (.612). 3-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R
- Highest WPA game score of the season for the Cubs.
- Hero: Ryan Rolison (.308). IP, 4 BF, BB, 2 K (W 3-0)
- Sidekick: Daniel Palencia (.134). IP, 4 BF, H
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.246). 0-4, BB
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.224). 1-5, R
- Kid: Ian Happ (-.126). 0-4, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s walk-off, RBI-single leading off the tenth. (.366) Busch also had the second largest WPA event of the game with his game-tying homer (.324).
*Reds Play of the Game: Connor Phillips faced pinch hitter Moisés Ballesteros with the bases loaded and two outs in the sixth inning. Phillips got Ballesteros to tap one in front of the plate which he fielded and threw to home plate for the inning ending force out. (.118)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 35 Winner: Michael Conforto received 252 of 335 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Conforto +10
- Nico Hoerner +9.5
- Shōta Imanaga/Michael Busch +7
- Pete Crow-Armstrong/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton/Jacob Webb -6
- Matt Shaw -9
- Seiya Suzuki -14
Current Win Pace: 108
Up Next: Game three of the four-game series will be Wednesday night at Wrigley Field. Colin Rea (4-1, 4.41, 32.2 IP) will make his fifth start of the season. Last time out, he allowed two earned runs over 5.1 innings in a win against the Diamondbacks. He is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three appearances at home so far this year. The Reds will counter with Brady Singer (2-2, 5.57, 32.1). Singer is making his eighth start of the year. The 29-year-old was the 18th overall pick in the 2018 draft (Royals). Last time out, he allowed four runs over 3.1 and losing in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. He is 0-2 with a 7.41 in four road games.
Kick’ em when they’re down. Get another win.
Go Cubs.
