I’m going on the road this week. I have never been to Boulder, but I am excited to check this one off the list of Big 12 towns to visit. I’ve looked back in my head and determined that we may have a problem.
I have not been successful at seeing road wins, at all. I try to do this at least once every year, and here is my history of games attended:
2024 – Kansas in Kansas City. Maybe the worst defensive game of the Matt Campbell era. It was excruciating.
2023 – at Oklahoma. Iowa State scored a bunch of points early and made you think, well maybe? Then Oklahoma turned on the jets and the game was over in the 3rd quarter
2022 – at Kansas. Maybe the worst offensive game of the Matt Campbell era. That Blake Clark 2 point conversion was fun though.
2021 – at Kansas State. A rare W! Breece Hall scored a 75 yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage
2021 – at UNLV in Vegas. Almost shouldn’t count because we were so much better than them.
2019 – at Baylor. It was 500 degrees outside and Iowa State got owned for 3 quarters. A furious rally was undone by a Baylor field goal on the last play of the game.
2017 – at West Virginia. This was on the heels of that magical October. We lost this game but Morgantown was as good as advertised.
Anyway, I have to be due for a win this time, right? I sure hope so. It should be a great weekend. Let’s take a look at the rest of the Big 12 slate, as I try for a 3rd winning week in a row.
THE GAMES
Central Florida (3-2, 0-2) at Cincinnati (4-1, 2-0)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Cincinnati -10.5 | O/U: 53.5
This has a big letdown for Cincinnati written all over it, doesn’t it? Coming off the big win over a top 15 team, it’s not easy to get back up for another one, especially when the opponent hasn’t been great this year. I don’t think Central Florida can win, but they can keep it close.
Pick: Central Florida +10.5
Houston (4-1, 1-1) at Oklahoma State (1-4, 0-2)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: TNT | The Line: Houston -14.5 | O/U: 46.5
I’m looking at Houston here with an opportunity to flex their muscles after a disappointing effort last week. It’s hard to see Ok State’s defense putting up much of a fight, but even with them being 1-4 and on quit watch, laying more than 2 TDs is more than I’m willing to do. What I think will happen is that Houston scores quite a bit and the Cowboys do just enough to get this over the total.
Pick: Over 46.5
#22 Iowa State (5-1, 2-1) at Colorado (2-4, 0-3)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Iowa State -2.5 | O/U: 52.5
This line has moved a ton towards Colorado, and honestly, I get it. However, I don’t think Iowa State’s defense is as bad as we saw last week, and Colorado’s offense won’t put up near as much of a challenge that Cincinnati did. The Cyclones desperately need this one, and I think they get it.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
TCU (4-1, 1-1) at Kansas State (2-4, 1-2)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: TCU -1.5 | O/U: 55.5
Look, I’m done trying to figure K-State out. There is no way they should have lost outright last week. Both teams can score so if I have to make a pick on this game, per the rules I made up myself for this column, give me the over.
Pick: Over 55.5
Kansas (4-2, 2-1) at #9 Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0)
Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Texas Tech -14 | O/U: 59.5
Tech has continued to roll, and I see little reason that won’t continue this week. But for some reason, I’m just thrown off by laying 14 points against a Kansas team that has “cheap touchdown for a backdoor cover” potential. Both offenses are good and explosive, which should lead to plenty of points.
Pick: Over 59.5
#18 BYU (5-0, 2-0) at Arizona (4-1, 1-1)
Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: BYU -1.5 | O/U: 47.5
BYU burned us last week by giving up a score in the last minute to blow a cover. Am I picking against them out of spite this week? A little bit. But at the same time, I think this is where they finally drop one. Arizona can move the ball and score, something the other teams BYU has played this year can’t say.
Pick: Arizona +1.5
#21 Arizona State (4-1, 2-0) at Utah (4-1, 1-1)
Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Utah -6 | O/U: 48.5
This is a curiously big line. What does Vegas know that I don’t? It’s Salt Lake City at night. There will be smoke on the field in the 3rd quarter for some reason. Utah is going to run the heck out of the ball. Something tells me that environment leads to a fast start for the Utes and a good night for their defense.
Pick: Utah -6
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Penn State -21.5 vs Northwestern
This is a gross one, but it sure stands out to me. Penn State is going to win this game by 40 points and no one will bat an eye. But if I know James Franklin, and at this point, how can you not, he will run up the score if he gets a chance at home against an inferior opponent.
Enjoy the games!
Season Record: 31-23-1 (+5.7 units)
