Another successful week in the books, as we went 2-1 in our three best bets in Week 6, moving to four games above .500 (13-9) for the season! Let’s keep the hot streak rollin’! Here are our Week 7 best bets for this week’s Mountain West football slate!
All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Matt’s record: 13-9, +2.5 units
Nevada/North Dakota State u42.5 (-110):
Skinny: We took Nevada to reach 30 points last week against a disastrous UTEP defense, and it accomplished just that despite a fourth quarter injury to quarterback Carter Jones.
Jones, a true sophomore, has started in four of the Wolf Pack’s five games, with the lone omission being against Montana State in Week 2. Jones appeared to reaggravate a previous arm injury that kept him out of that game on Saturday, so there’s a chance he misses time.
The last time the 6-foot-3 signal caller missed a game, we — and everyone else — was the last to know. Even Jones, who was dressed in uniform and announced as a starter in the stadium, didn’t know that he wasn’t going to play until right before kickoff. Head coach Jeff Choate was pretty coy with reporters after regarding Jones’ injury, and he’s never been one to be wholly transparent with injuries.
That won’t be the case in conference play, as teams are required to submit any absences or injuries 90 minutes before kick off. So we probably won’t know Jones’ availability until then. Alas, if he does miss time, AJ Bianco is expected to be the backup quarterback. Bianco’s been serviceable in the limited showing this season, but doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, especially against an exceptional (elite?) NDSU defense.
I do think the Bison’s offense underperformed last week if it wasn’t for three turnovers (two in plus territory) plus one missed 53-yard field goal, which isn’t a “gimme.” But their games have only broke this line once — and I think a questionable Nevada QB situation gives me more incentive to take this under.
Air Force ML over UNLV (-110):
Skinny: How ‘bout them Runnin’ Rebels! I was wrong, picking North Dakota State’s team-total over last week. Well, that sucker flew under, and UNLV was able to pick up a massive win at home to hand the Bison their first loss of the season.
That said, NDSU did outgain UNLV by 45 yards (300-255) on three fewer plays with three more first downs (19-16). UNLV forced three critical turnovers and held Nathan Hayes to 12-of-22 passing; I was very impressed with how their back-end held up, quieting some concerns. But Air Force — even without quarterback Liam Szarka — presents a completely different test for the Runnin’ Rebels.
UNLV’s run defense has been rock solid this season, ranking No. 80 in yards per carry allowed (4.2) and No. 52 in EPA/play against the rush. However, three of their six games have been against Cal and Hawai’i, two of the worst rushing offenses in America, and Akron, who is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry against FBS opponents. Against Memphis, NDSU and North Texas, they have surrendered 5.0 yards per attempt, which would be a bottom-20 mark extrapolated over an entire season.
Air Force’s offense didn’t miss a beat in Kemper Hodges’ first game under center, albeit against Northern Illinois. UNLV poses a much sturdier test. I believe the Falcons’ squeak this out at home.
Hawai’i u14.5 TT v. New Mexico (-120):
Skinny: Maybe I am the one who’s missing something, but I am kind of surprised the line is this high.
Hawaii’s offense has drastically underperformed this season, and the biggest culprit is its struggles in the red zone. The Rainbow Warriors are scoring — yes, including TD’s and FG’s — in the red zone a paltry 65 percent of the time this season, the seventh-worst mark in the country. That’s better than only Colorado, Texas State, Utah State, Boston College and two of the MW’s own in UTEP and Northern Illinois.
Over the last three weeks, that number dwindles down to 50 percent (4-8). Better yet, it’s only found the end zone on 35 percent of its red zone trips this year, the fourth-worst nationally. That’s unfathomably bad. Perhaps the market believes that will correct itself against a very good New Mexico defense that ranks in the 91st percentile in EPA/play. Though I don’t think that will be case, especially since New Mexico’s defense has only allowed four total trips to the red zone through five games.
