Despite dealing with injuries to key players, the Spurs remain in the playoff picture. Can they hold on to a top-6 until they get healthy, or should fans be happy if they are in the play-in spots when Wembanyama returns?
Mark Barrington: I think that staying inside the top six is kind of a big ask. If the Spurs can play something like .500 ball with three of their best four players unable to suit up, it will be extremely
impressive and should keep the team in a great position to be able to lock up a playoff spot early and get that extra week of rest before the real games start.
It really depends on how soon the roster is at full strength. If everyone returns by mid-December, the Spurs should be able to maintain their current playoff standing, but if the team doesn’t come together until January, there could be a bit more work to do.
Bill Huan: The Spurs are currently the fifth seed, a game ahead of Minnesota, two ahead of Phoenix, and three ahead of Golden State. I expect the Wolves to pass them now that they’re fully healthy, but Phoenix shouldn’t be a threat given that they’ve overperformed and their schedule is about to get much tougher. The only other team that could knock the Spurs into the play-in, then, would be the Warriors, who I argue have underachieved thus far. Whether that happens comes down to how long Harper, Castle, and Wemby will be out for, and we’ve only been given very vague timetables thus far. I’d say that it’s a coin toss whether Golden State knocks San Antonio into the play-in, and the more important thing is how the team performs when everyone comes back. It seems like the West will have seven legitimate teams vying for top six seeds with three locks in OKC, Denver, and Houston, so the Spurs will need to stay healthy the rest of the season to lock in one of those final playoff spots.
Devon Birdsong: Mark’s not wrong. Top 6 is a tough ask in a loaded Western Conference. Interestingly, though, the West isn’t as deep as it is tough this season. There are only eight teams in the west playing .500 ball or better, and the Spurs have yet to lose to a team under that thus far. I think the East is the much tougher place to hold position right now with 11 teams at .500 or better, so I think the Spurs have a shot. Other than games against the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Magic, and Cavaliers, the Spurs have a pretty easy schedule, and I could see them going 2-2 against that group. If they can do that, yeah, I think they’ll be able to hold on until reinforcements arrive.
Jeje Gomez: A top-6 seeding seemed unlikely before the season, so no one should be too heartbroken about the Spurs finding themselves in the play-in range with so many injuries. That said, if San Antonio drops out of the top eight, it could be tough to claw their way back into playoff territory with so many good teams in the West. Hopefully, they can take advantage of a somewhat weak schedule and also get Wemby back soon, so they don’t face an uphill battle the rest of the way.
A month into the season, the Spurs are not the only ones who have outperformed expectations. Which team is the most pleasant surprise so far?
Barrington: In the East, I like the Bulls. They’re going to be in the middle of the playoff pack, and could make some of the contenders uncomfortable in the first and/or second rounds of the playoffs. I also like the Trail Blazers in the West. They’re going to struggle to make the playoffs, but their level of play really is far better than you’d expect from their roster. You’ve got to love that a team that’s starting Sidy Cissoko as their point guard can upset the Nuggets and Thunder and be competitive against top teams. Yang Hansen is a really interesting rookie player. Who knows what they’ll be next year when Lillard returns from injury?
Huan: Phoenix in the West and Detroit in the East. I thought the Suns could surprise and finish with a record similar to the one they had last year, but to be above .500 is quite a shock. They’ve overperformed and have played an easy schedule thus far, so it’s unlikely Phoenix will maintain their record, but it’s nice to see that they’ve found their joy again, even if the team isn’t a contender.
Meanwhile, I was a skeptic of the Pistons heading into the season and wasn’t sure if they would be able to improve drastically on their record from last year, but I’ve been dead wrong about that. Jalen Duren has taken an incredible leap and looks like a potential All-Star, and the depth they have is something I didn’t see coming before the season started. Given that Ausar Thompson improves every game and Jaden Ivey hasn’t played a single minute yet, it’s possible that we haven’t seen the ceiling of this team yet. I still wouldn’t put them ahead of the Knicks or Cavs, but if Detroit makes an in-season move for a shooter, they could absolutely become a finals contender.
Birdsong: Tough question because there have been a fair few surprises for me. I knew the Pistons would be pretty good, but not leading the entire Eastern Conference good. There’s always a danger when a team breaks through of regressing the next season, but they look like they’re building something special up there just in time for the Spurs to be good again too (cue Vietnam flashbacks to 2005). I’ve also been surprised that the Hawks and 76ers haven’t cratered in spite of notable injuries, but they do both have good coaches in Nick Nurse and Quin Snyder. So I think for me the real shocker this season has to be the Suns.I fully expected them to be in the bottom five after Durant’s exit (and basically their entire offseason) but first-timer Jordan Ott has got them all sold on playing solid, fundamental basketball, and they’ve been a tough out for most of the teams they’ve faced. They’re 10th in net rating, and rock solid on both ends of the court, rather than being carried by offense or defense. It’s honestly kind of amazing.
Gomez: The Raptors entered the season as a bit of a mystery, a team with an expensive roster featuring a bunch of wings that seemed to have overlapping skills, and not a lot of proven depth. I doubt anyone thought that a month in, they’d have the second-best record in the East and the fifth-best net rating in the league. They also seem to enjoy playing together and have found contributors in Jamal Shead, rookie Collin Murray-Boiles, and our old friend Sandro Mamukelashvili. They don’t seem like a real contender, but no one really does in their conference, so they should make the playoffs and could make a run given the right matchup. I don’t think many expected that from Toronto, so I’ll go with them.
On the other hand, some teams have disappointed. Who do you think is the main candidate to blow it up, or at least trade one star?
Barrington: It’s hard to call out the Kings for being disappointing, because that’s just their identity. Kangz gotta Kangz. I don’t like to pick on bottom dwellers, but the Pelicans have got to be the worst-run franchise in the league. Almost every year you hear that Zion Williamson is finally going to start the season in shape, and within two weeks, he’s sitting out games. The franchise has become a graveyard for young coaches’ careers, and Willie Green deserved better. They drafted really well this offseason, getting Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen, who have both looked really good so far. Let’s hope that their careers don’t get caught in the Smoothie King Center quicksand like so many other Pelicans players over the last decade or so.
In the East, it’s gotta be the Pacers. After a trip to the finals last year, they’ve fallen on hard times. They lost their best player, Tyrese Haliburton, in the finals, and Myles Turner to free agency, but they still have Siakam, Nembhard, and Mathurin. I guess this is a tank year for them, but they really have too much talent to be 2-13, or whatever it will be when this article gets published.
Huan: Memphis, and it’s not particularly close. Even with all the turmoil last season and them trading away Bane, I still believed in the infrastructure of this team. Going above .500 and being a lock for the play-in seemed realistic, but they’ve now dropped to 5-11 and sit 11th in the West. A Ja trade seems like it could be right around the corner, and even when he plays, it seems like he actively hurts the Grizzlies (and my fantasy team) as much as he helps. Memphis is truly at a crossroads and a potential fire sale from them could alter the playoff picture in both conferences.
Birdsong: I had a feeling the Pacers were going to have a rough go of it, and knew the fate of the Bucks depended almost entirely on Giannis, but I just did not anticipate how dysfunctional the Grizzlies would look. There’s still some talent on that team, but they look rudderless and leaderless, and the coaching change appears to have been a mistake as well. Unless something drastically changes, or their front office makes some incredible moves, I think Memphis is back to square one again, and might have to have a fire sale. Honorable mention is a tie between the consistently controversial and injured (but usually feisty) Clippers and the underperforming Magic. Those don’t feel as ‘shocking’ to me, though.
Gomez: I think disappointing teams like the Clippers and Magic could still right the ship to an extent, so I don’t expect them to blow it up. The Mavericks and Grizzlies, on the other hand, seem like prime candidates to do something drastic soon. Ja Morant seems to be playing his way out of Memphis or looking to get another coach fired. His low market value could make finding a good trade difficult, and the fans won’t be happy to see him go if one happens, but it might be time to hit the reset button. Dallas controls its pick this year, and while they say they won’t move Anthony Davis, the prospect of keeping him and signing him to a massive extension next summer should scare them. It will be interesting to see what those two teams do.
