The offseason for the Orioles has officially begun, with Mike Elias once again making grand proclamations about Baltimore’s commitment to winning and how that will shape the O’s offseason. Atop Elias’
offseason wishlist, once again, is a “front-line starting pitcher.” Two years ago, the Orioles’ GM filled that need with the biggest move of his career, trading for Corbin Burnes. Last offseason, Elias saw Burnes walk out the door, failed to secure another top-line starter and settled for bargain bin pickups Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano.
The 2026 offseason gives the Orioles’ front office another chance to finally put together the rotation that can deliver regular-season results and playoff victories. This free agent market doesn’t have a starter the caliber of Burnes, Max Fried or Blake Snell, with Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suarez leading the class.
The lack of top-end talent on the open market may push Elias & Co. toward the trade market once again. If they do look to the trade block, one of the top names on their shopping list should be Minnesota right-hander Pablo López.
What López would bring to the Orioles
Similar to current O’s starters Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers, at his best, López is the kind of pitcher that can lead an MLB rotation. Back in the 2023 season, he finished 7th in AL Cy Young voting after posting 234 Ks in 194 IP while posting a 3.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. That same season, the right-hander out of Venezuela earned his first and only All-Star appearance and helped lead the Twins to an AL Central pennant and an ALCS appearance.
López also offers a different profile than any of the Orioles’ current starting pitching options. The 29-year-old out of Cabimas, Venezuela features a 4-seam fastball that sits around 94-95 mph and last season topped out at 97 mph. Against left-handed batters, López primarily relies on a changeup, while his go-to secondary pitch against righties is a sweeper that’s often been his best pitch. Add to that trio a curveball and sinker and López has a true five-pitch mix with a variety of ways to get hitters out.
The 6’4” righty would also bring strikeout abilities to the Baltimore rotation that only Bradish can rival. He sports a career K/9 of 9.3 and has twice posted a 10+ K/9 in his career. The only Orioles starters to post a 9+ K/9 over a full season in the last 10 years are Bradish in 2023 and Dylan Bundy in 2018.
The eight-year MLB vet does come with some red flags, however. López had an early stint on the IL because of a hamstring injury, spent another 92 days on the IL with a right-shoulder strain and finished the year sidelined with a right forearm injury. Last season was the first time since 2021 that the right-hander failed to make 30+ starts in a season.
The shoulder strain is the big concern, as right shoulder injuries plagued López at the beginning of his career. Buying damaged goods hasn’t turned out well for the Orioles recently (see Tyler O’Neill’s 2025 season), so the injuries alone may convince the front office that the Twins’ right-hander isn’t the answer to their problems.
What it would cost to acquire López
Convincing the Twins to part ways with their former All-Star probably wouldn’t be too difficult as the Twinkies head for a full-on rebuild. Minnesota managed to execute an even bigger fire sale than the Orioles at last year’s deadline, trading away 11 major leaguers over the last week of July.
Given López’s recent injury history, his age (he’ll turn 30 before the season starts) and the Twins’ willingness to sell, the cost for acquiring the right via trade shouldn’t be too exorbitant. Four years ago, Minnesota traded for then 31-year-old Sonny Gray from the Reds, sending 2021 1st round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati while also getting a minor league reliever. Baltimore could follow that template and offer a prospect like Boston Bateman or Michael Forret straight up for López, or do a lesser version of the Burnes trade and send two lower-ranked prospects to Minnesota.
Once you get past the prospect cost that would come with acquiring the Venezuelan, López actually represents a good value given his salary. He’s scheduled to make $21.8M in 2026, making him the 18th highest-paid starter in all of baseball. That may seem high, but players like Seth Lugo, Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino are scheduled to make similar money and López undoubtedly offers a higher upside than those pitchers.
Twins righty also comes with the added benefit of two full years of team control, something that’s been a positive factor for Elias in past trades for pitchers (Rogers, Zach Eflin). Add in the fact that top free agents are likely to command $30M+/year and López looks more and more like a potential steal.
Should the Orioles pursue a deal for López?
Acquiring the former All-Star would undoubtedly solidify the rotation behind Bradish and Rogers and give the Orioles three starters who give them a chance to win every time out. The move would fall short of the Burnes-ian heights we’ve seen in the past, but would still be a far cry from the utter disappointment Birdland experienced last offseason.
However, a move for the eigth-year vet would still be met with plenty of groans and a measured amount of disappointment. López has produced one season where he looked like a top-end starter and another 140 starts where he looked like a healthier, slightly more polished Grayson Rodriguez. Yes, the latter still has plenty of value. However, after watching division rivals acquire the likes of Garrett Crochet, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón in recent offseasons, acquiring just another Grayson Rodriguez type would feel like another missed opportunity for the would-be contenders in Baltimore.
