Here’s the fourth installment of my ongoing, series-long conversation with Thilo of PtR’s sister site covering the Minnesota Timberwolves, Canis Hoopus.
J.R. Wilco
In the middle of a series that feels like a movie from a director intent on subverting expectations above all else, Game 3 was a weird game. (We’ll get to it in a moment, but it was weird.) First, San Antonio was favored heavily, and it’s a true-ism that a series doesn’t begin until the road team wins. So we got a tight game that the visitors
won, and so the series began right away. Expectations subverted.
After Minnesota’s victory Coach Finch gripes about a lack of goaltending calls, setting up Game 2 to focus on how the refs treat Wemby’s defensive game, only for it to be a practical non-issue as Minnesota largely stopped driving. After a close opener, Game 2 was a blowout. Expectations subverted.
To start Game 3, the Spurs dominated the opening half of the first quarter and Minnesota couldn’t score at all. Wembanyama was playing out of his mind and dominating on both ends, which looked like the game they played two prior; let’s saddle up for another blowout. But San Antonio couldn’t build much of a lead because the Spurs couldn’t hit a three and all of their shots in the paint were rimming out. So, instead of getting a repeat of Game 2, we got a repeat of Game 1. Expectations subverted!
After going 0-fer, and 2-fer from deep, Victor goes off and combines his excellent defense with an offensive master class. Now San Antonio is up 2-1, and Minnesota is known for being an incredible team when their backs are against the wall. So what are the next expectations that we will see subverted? And what do you expect from Minnesota looking at potentially their last home game of the season?
Thilo
To start with, I would certainly be shocked if Jaden McDaniels started hitting his shots again. That would subvert the cratered expectations I have for him now.
On an individual level, the bar has recently gone through the floor for Julius Randle and McDaniels, while Ayo gets the most marginal amount of slack due to his injury status.
But God, I don’t know. On a surface level, the Wolves seem to have lost their identity entirely. They aren’t getting to the rim the way they had initially promised in Game 1. They’re talking a lot less trash (unless Tony Brothers is the target) and they’re backing up even less.
A subversion could be anything from shooting better to rebounding again. Any of that would be shocking.
If I sound pessimistic, it’s because I am. Friday night’s game was not one to inspire confidence. Naz Reid was the only role player on the Wolves that played up to standards. Anthony Edwards did what he could.
I am quite simply shocked that the Wolves were able to stay in Game 3 the way they played. It seems like shooting variance decides whether these games will be close or an abject demolition in favor of San Antonio.
Unfortunately, what I’m getting at is that I’m not really sure what I expect to change that’s remotely realistic.
Julius Randle could become the optimized version of himself from last year’s playoffs, but that would require him not facing the style of defense that has caused him the most trouble in the past few playoff runs. So that looks unlikely.
The Wolves roster could have a hot game from deep, but their shooting specialist and the only guy outside of Ant that can’t be dared to shoot is out for the year and more. That looks unlikely, albeit more possible.
That leaves the possibility of Ant going supernova, but that’s a LOT to ask of a guy playing on a lower body that reminds friends older than myself of Orlando Magic Grant Hill.
No, I think the winning formula was stealing a game and then pressing the pedal all the way down. The Wolves accomplished step one, but don’t look poised to reclaim that needed head start.
That being said, anything but a decisive win in Game 4 would be a huge red flag.
I guess I’ll flip the question on you. It feels like the Spurs have turned a corner after a shaky Game 1. What scares you the most in terms of ways the Wolves can muscle their way back into this bout? How possible/probably do you think those things are?
J.R.
While it makes sense given being down 2-1, I think you’re being overly harsh on your team’s prospects. Try thinking about it from this perspective: Minnesota has played San Antonio close for 8 quarters out of 12, including a decisive fourth quarter on the road. The Spurs played their best game in their second homer, so perhaps the Wolves will do the same. We talked before Game 3 about how some regression to the mean would be in favor of Wemby and Fox, and now that’s the case for McDaniels and Randle.
I’d also like to draw your attention to something that you might be taking for granted. Your home crowd is amazing; in fact, I credit them for keeping the Timberwolves from cratering in the first. With San Antonio in the middle of throwing basketball’s version of a shutout (how better to describe yielding a single point over the first 6 minutes of a game) the Mill City audience was primed for something to cheer for. When Gobert got that first basket with a tip-in, there was this sustained response from the crowd that was way out of proportion. I noted it, but didn’t think it would go far as the Spurs scored a quick four points on a Vassell bucket and a pair of Castle freebies. But then Naz hit a three and there was that strange cheer again. It was longer that normal and had the feel of a crowd that had been rooting for a team that had been working their way back from a big deficit and was about to tie it up. But the Wolves were just starting to claw their way back into it.
I’ve got to say, though, that the team really responded. The home team’s activity picked up, their urgency ratcheted up a couple of notches, and thought that if the Spurs could score, it would take the air out of the arena and both the team and the crowd might cave. What happened on the next possession? Timberwolves forced a shot clock violation and the crowd came unhinged. The rest of the quarter was a 17-4 run from the home team on the back of the energy that the fans decided to give before there was really much to cheer for.
But none of that is really what scares me the most. It’s scary, but the truly terrifying bit is what all of that might enable – a tight game down the stretch with enough scoring and defense to put the ball in Edwards’s hands with just enough time on the clock to rip the hearts out of the Spurs. He’s done it three times already this year: twice in the regular season, and once in Game 1. Plus, he did it at the end of the 1st on Friday, and McDaniels closed out the 2nd in the same way.
So that’s what I’m most afraid of. Your team sticks around, and Ant pulls a rabbit out of his hat again. It wouldn’t subvert expectations much, but it sure would even up the series.
Which of those options do you think is more likely? A wire to wire dogfight like Games 1 and 3 or a blowout like Game 2? Or maybe it’s something else entirely…
Thilo
It’s funny isn’t it? That you’re the one convincing me to have hope in my team, while I wallow in the self-pity of refusing to have my heart broken again.
What you’re describing, ultimately, is a Wild-Westian gamble where the Wolves maneuver themselves, bet by bet, flop by flop, to an even game before letting Ant go all in on the final hand of the game. How fitting it is to be facing the Spurs in that regard.
To that end, what I am truly hoping for is a Game 4 victory that shatters the record for largest playoff win in NBA history in favor of the Timberwolves. I do unironically think Minnesota evens up the series tonight, as the second game at home is always the easier one to hold on to and dominate (vis a vis Game 2).
I think I will stand by some of my pessimism however. There is no escaping that the Spurs are an excellent team, and while the Wolves are quite good as well, they are neither at full strength nor particularly locked in right now.
I think that one of those things can change on a dime. I’d say that would enable pulling away in a close game. I think that’s what we’ll see in Game 4.
Still, if I think back to the first frat we did, I remember the focus we put on “well, the Spurs can’t just ‘play better,’ there’s always give and take.” It feels like the Spurs have had to give up very little to gain a ton. Minnesota probably needs to flip that script.
Give up nothing, and take back momentum.
Winning two on the road is going to be a lot harder than just winning one. Losing two at home should be a lot harder than just losing one.
We’ll see tonight, and I hope we get a good one, because despite the loss, Game 3 was a lot more fun than Game 2.
