Baseball statistics are what you would call “noisy.” There are a lot of factors that influence them, and random chance plays a large part. Pick any player and any statistic and measure it from year to year, and more often than not you’ll see a spike here and a drop there. It’s part of the game.
So when you see a consistent, persistent trend, you pay attention. And there’s a particular graph for Vinnie Pasquantino that I can’t get out of my head. Here it is:
The X-axis of this graph is time; easy enough.
The Y-axis shows a stat called weighted expected on base average, or xwOBA. Standard weighted on base average, or wOBA, gives weighted credit for their performance at the plate (IE, a home run is worth more than a single) and spits out one number that is a representation of total offensive value. The idea behind xwOBA is similar, except it doesn’t use actual batted ball results. Rather, it uses exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed. The idea is to take some of that noise out and give an idea of what should have happened.
No stat is perfect, and xwOBA isn’t, either. But when such a clear story emerges, like I said, it sticks with you. Vinnie started off strong in his rookie year, but every year since has gotten worse than the year before per this stat. Not occasionally. Every year.
Before this season, xwOBA trend or not, Vinnie was productive. This year, though, Vinnie has simply been a liability to the offense. His power is way down overall, and he has been totally dominated by left-handed pitchers to the tune of an unplayable .145/.217/.184 triple slash. His Wins Above Replacement has been at or below zero all year no matter which flavor you’re looking at. His Statcast page shows a worrying amount of blue compared to last year; his average exit velo is down, his barrel rate is down, his hard hit rate is down, his bat speed is down. It is Not Good.
What is doubly Not Good is that Vinnie’s nightmare 2026 season will continue, as he exited Saturday’s game with hand discomfort that turned out to be a hamate bone fracture. These are nasty injuries that take a long time to heal and are notorious for hindering a player’s ability to hit for power for a long time afterwards. Vinnie will be out for the next four to six weeks, placing his return in late July or early August—by which the Royals will be firmly out of the playoff race and ought to be selling everything not nailed down.
But even when Vinnie is back, the Royals have some serious questions to answer. Kansas City has treated and marketed Vinnie like a star, but while his personality is big enough to fill the role, his play on the field simply has not. Since 2023, there have been 41 first basemen to accrue 500 or more plate appearances in games playing the position. Among those players Vinnie ranks 20th in WAR and 20th in wOBA. He has no Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, or All-Star appearances. And now, he’s had seasons significantly impacted by an injury in three of the last four years.
Vinnie is due $6.9 million next year due to an extension he and the Royals negotiated prior to last season, and his last year before free agency is the year after that. But Kansas City should probably do some soul searching regarding where Vinnie fits sooner rather than later.
