Despite Everton’s spirited, unfortunate, yet ultimately as-expected defeat against Arsenal last weekend, they managed to retain their eighth-place position in the Premier League table, though several of the chasing pack gained ground on them. Still, the prize of European football – in one form or another – tantalizingly persists, like a mirage of an oasis to a thirsty desert traveller.
Perhaps the manner in which the Blues had a draw snatched away from them late on at the Emirates Stadium, with an uncharacteristic
lapse in concentration in what had otherwise been an impeccable display explained David Moyes’ oddly defensive reaction to perfectly regular questioning regarding the absence of both Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski. At least the pair are (apparently) potentially available again — but let’s see how that plays out.
The Toffees are back on home turf for today’s early evening visit of Chelsea, having recently ended a miserable stretch of form at Hill Dickinson Stadium with a comfortable 2-0 win over a poor Burnley side. The Londoners, coming off a few rough results, nevertheless sit sixth in the table and will offer a far sterner test than the hapless Lancastrians.
Form
Chelsea’s owners BlueCo spent an eye-watering €339m on new talent in the summer, continuing their policy of hoovering up a not insignificant proportion of global footballing prospects, a strategy which continues to generate huge income for the club, as both academy prospects and those senior players deemed surplus to requirements are dispatched, often for hefty fees. It’s a pretty cold and ruthless business, in which players are seen almost entirely as disposable, tradeable assets, but it certainly keeps the cash register ticking over, with the West London outfit raising a staggering €334m in outgoings.
By some margin this season’s most impactful signing has been one-time Blues target João Pedro (Brighton, €63.7m), clearly an elite forward now at 23. Others, in wingers Alejandro Garnacho (Manchester United, €46.2m), Jamie Gittens (Dortmund, €56m) and Estêvão (Palmeiras, €45m) have had variable impact, whilst Liam Delap (Ipswich Town, €35.5m), seemingly Everton’s primary striker target in the summer, has failed to impress, having scored just two goals this term, from 31 appearances in all competitions.
Enzo Maresca guided Chelsea to a fourth-place finish last term, but cut an increasingly unhappy figure as the campaign progressed, eventually talking himself out of a job. By the turn of the year the Italian was gone and a week or so later Liam Rosenior was installed in the hotseat, as – in effect – an internal appointment from BlueCo-owned RC Strasbourg. Aside from defeat by Arsenal in both legs of the EFL Cup Semi-finals, initially things proceeded smoothly under the new manager who, at 41 is still in the early stages of his management career, having only taken his first steps as interim boss at Derby County in 2022, before moving on full-time to Hull City and then Strasbourg.
After winning his first four league games in charge, Rosenior has overseen a significant decline, failing to beat both Leeds United and Burnley at home, before losing again to the Gunners, pulling off a surprise 4-1 away win over Aston Villa, but following up by crashing out of the Champions League 8-2 on aggregate to PSG, sandwiched around defeat at Stamford Bridge against Newcastle United. This decline in form, focused around increasing criticism of Rosenior’s naivety and a defensive vulnerability highlighted by the team keeping a clean sheet only twice in 18 games since he came in (and that, against humble opposition in Cypriot side Pafos, and Hull), has piled pressure on the new boss already. With Chelsea currently outside of the UCL places at time of writing, they can’t afford to slip up again today.
Team Assessment
Rosenior has favoured a 4-2-3-1 formation, though has used 4-3-3 in two of the last three league games. Chelsea are the second-best away side in the division this term, with Everton sitting in 14th for home results. They are a possession side (59% share, 87.3% pass success) who probe for openings and have a potent, balanced attack, scoring 53 goals this season (including a division-high seven penalties), against 35 conceded. The visitors have shown susceptibility to set-pieces, having shipped 14 during the campaign — twice as many as the Toffees.
Robert Sanchez has been dropped on a couple of occasions recently, but has been between the sticks for the last two outings, and should continue today. The team’s defence has been injury-hit and inconsistent: starting right back Malo Gusto is a late call, and with Reece James sidelined, Mamadou Sarr may fill in. On the left, Marc Cucurella likes to get forward, but in the centre Chelsea have struggled to find solutions. Trevoh Chalobah, considered to be surplus a couple of seasons ago, has the most minutes of any player this term, but is out currently, so Wesley Fofana could pair up with any of the giant Tosin Adarabioyo, hybrid left back Jorrel Hato, or even youngster Josh Acheampong.
In midfield, the excellent, versatile Enzo Fernández will probably sit alongside the impressive Moisés Caicedo, but may be deployed further forward, should the more defensive-minded Andrey Santos replace the injured James. This latter solution would require Cole Palmer to move to the flank, as has often been the case since Rosenior took over. Palmer opened up Everton from a central attacking position back in December. The gifted, but injury-plagued Roméo Lavia, currently being eased back from another lengthy spell out, offers another deeper option for what is an exceptional group of players able to play in the centre of the park.
Up top, the brilliant João Pedro will lead the line. The Brazilian is on red-hot form, having scored eight in his last nine league outings, adding five assists and has developed into one of the most complete strikers in world football this term. Whether Palmer will be fielded on the wing complicates matters, but Pedro Neto has now returned from suspension, and can play either right or left. Garnacho has lined up on the left in the last two league games and could retain his place. The precocious Estêvão was on the bench against PSG on Tuesday, but has apparently looked dynamic in training this week, having returned from a hamstring injury.
Prediction
Everton played well enough to beat the league leaders last Saturday, and with Moyes in a chipper mood at yesterday’s pre-match press conference, it appears the loss has not hit morale at Finch Farm too much. The two big questions, however, revolve around the defence and the team’s weak home results. A routine victory over Burnley ended an eight-game winless run at Hill Dickinson (including an FA Cup exit to Sunderland on penalties) stretching back to early December, but it’d be overly optimistic to imagine that home woes have been banished. Chelsea will try to control the game, so to some extent Everton could play this more like an away match, which should suit them, in theory.
The other major unknowable is whether either Branthwaite, or Tarkowski will be available to start this evening. Moyes stated that they should be “around the squad”, whilst expressing happiness with the performances of Jake O’Brien and Michael Keane last weekend, but it’s hard to imagine either will be risked with the team not playing again for another three weeks, should their injuries be muscular, as is probably the case. I expect that the hosts will line up as against Arsenal, as nobody who started played less than solidly, and there is something to be said for continuity, as regards cohesion.
Chelsea endured a humbling experience in their UCL exit, being clinically dispatched in front of a no-doubt glum Stamford Bridge crowd, after suffering a late collapse at the Parc des Princes in the first leg. Whilst Rosenior is inexperienced and is still struggling to find consistency, his squad is undeniably highly talented, especially in midfield and forward areas, although defensively it lags someway behind. If they try to play out from the back, as is their preference, then an energetic, coordinated high press from Everton could reap great rewards. Still, the Blues must avoid leaving gaps in the centre, or in behind, because the visitors possess both the pace and technical qualities to punish any lapses in concentration, overcommitment, or poor positioning.
The Londoners seem less than the sum of their parts, whilst the Toffees appear collectively stronger than may be inferred from a casual glance at their squad. But, it remains to be seen whether Everton can operate effectively at home against a side offering more than the blunt attacking threat of Burnley, who looked every inch to be a Championship outfit masquerading as a top flight team. It’s far too early to claim that Moyes has solved this problem and while the Blues enjoy a strong recent historical home record against Chelsea, I can see this being another day of frustration for those at HDS this evening.
Scoreline: Everton 1-1 Chelsea
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, footystats.org, whoscored.com and fbref.com
