My first instinct was to make this a really short piece with a hat tip. My second instinct was to put Hunter Greene on the cover for this one. All kidding aside, a H&G hat tip to Greene. He posted a .780 WPA tonight for the Reds. No Cubs starting pitcher has posted a game score that high in my time writing this feature. The last starting pitcher anywhere close to this was Marcus Stroman on May 29, 2023 with a .734. That’s an amazing performance. He was nearly unhittable. I didn’t see every pitch of
the game, but I thought maybe I saw about four balls all night that were reasonably squared up. A few BCB updates ago, I used to have a signature that said something to the effect of sometimes you just tip your hat to the other guy and move on to the next game.
Speaking of things that I’ve written here, I remember just a couple of days ago making a joke about how unusual 1-0 games were and that they’d basically gone the way of the dodo bird. That’s, of course, hyperbole. They still happen. But this game did feel like a bit of a throwback. A nine-inning complete game and only three pitchers threw in the game. Two great pitching efforts, a total of five hits and two walks against 21 strikeouts. Woof. This was, in fact, the third 1-0 game the Cubs have been involved with this year. On August 1, the Cubs won won against the Orioles with a win by Cade Horton. (Crazy note from that day in baseball, the Cubs were two games back of the Brewers.) The Cubs also won a game against Cleveland 1-0 in 10 innings. For whatever it’s worth, all three of these 1-0 wins went to the home team.
Lost in the shuffle was Colin Rea’s performance. I saw a comment here during the day Thursday about Colin being an innings eater. I separately wrote in a comment during the day Thursday that Ian Happ was emblematic of this year’s Cubs. That is, both are sometimes besmirched by people who dwell on the things that they are not rather than the celebrated for the things that they are. In both instances, good not great. Among the best, but maybe not in that top tier. I’m not going to tell anybody that Colin Rea is a top-tier pitcher. But I do think most people aren’t aware that he had a pretty good season.
Colin stayed healthy. I get it, that was probably his biggest qualification to be second on the Cubs in starts. This was his 26th start. 63 pitchers have made more starts, about two per team. Maybe that’s dismissed as a participation award. He’s reached 153.2 IP. 50 pitchers have thrown more innings, he’s just ahead of Kyle Hendricks. He has a 4.10 ERA. Of the 50 pitchers with more innings pitched than Rea, 16 of them have higher ERAs. This is somewhat crude analysis. This “innings eater” is 35th in ERA out of the guys who have thrown 153.2 innings or more. An average of about one per team. 7.0 K/9, good number. K/BB 2.8, good number. 0.85 HR/9, good number.
Colin Rea, just one more Cub this season who has probably been better than a wide swath of Cub fandom gives him credit for. He had some really big wins for the team this year. The comment I saw was discussing him in context with the postseason roster. I get that. I too think he probably gets squeezed off of the roster. The postseason roster isn’t a participation award. You have to put together the group you think gives you the best chance to win. Colin won’t start and so the question is: Does he provide more value out of the pen than someone else. My guess is no, but I wouldn’t flinch or have any problem with him being there.
Did Wednesday’s long celebration play any role in this? I didn’t think the Cubs looked tired. I thought Greene looked out of this world. I will say, if you had a long day and travelled, seeing dozens of 100+ MPH pitches was less than ideal. I think most Cub fans have known for a few years that when Greene is fully healthy and gets locked in, he is more than a handful.
Tip that cap. If the Cubs can get two wins out of Cincinnati, I think that’s probably adequate. Five out of seven on the road is a great number. Of course, once you got all three in Pittsburgh, you have to move your mind out to five wins. Being fully honest, I voted four in Al’s poll the other day about how many would they win on this trip. So I’ll certainly take five if they can get there.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 112, 29 BF (8 IP)
- Reds: 109, 30 BF
After the disaster that was Wednesday’s 376-pitch combined effort in the clincher, this is so much the opposite. The Cubs throw 14 pitches per inning, staying within my 11-15 green light zone. The Reds check in even lower at 12.11. Greene was just amazing. The Reds used no bullpen, so they should be able to go hard after Friday’s game. For a team clinging to contention, that’s a big deal. The Cubs use one reliever for 19 pitches. The Cubs should also have a deep pen for Friday’s game. Aaron Civale is the only Cub reliever who I can’t see available Friday.
Three Stars:
- Colin Rea for seven innings, one run, 11 strikeouts. Boss performance. Bad timing.
- Seiya Suzuki had the Cubs only hit, a double. Just as the Fox broadcast was starting to think about talking about it.
- I don’t miss these games where there really isn’t a real choice. I’m going to go with Pete Crow-Armstrong. The rocket he hit off of Moises Ballesteros was past the infield and so it would have otherwise been a hit. With his speed, that one might have been a double but for the unfortunate contact with the runner.
Game 153, September 18: Reds 1, Cubs 0 (88-65)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.244). 7 IP, 25 BF, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 11 K (L 10-7)
- Hero: Mike Soroka (-.035). IP, 4 BF, BB, K
- Sidekick: Moisés Ballesteros (-.006). 0-3
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.133). 0-4 (Down to .301)
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.118). 0-3
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.117). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Will Benson’s one-out RBI double in the fourth. (.115) Interestingly, there were only eight plays in the entire game that registered positive WPA for a team. The Reds had only three players produce positive WPA game scores, so five between the two teams.
*Cubs Play of the Game: Moisés Ballesteros reaching on an error leading off the fifth inning. (.051)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Ian Happ 93-85 over Aaron Civale.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Shōta Imanaga/Jameson Taillon +19
- Cade Horton +18
- Michael Busch +17.17
- Willi Castro/Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -19.33
- Carson Kelly -23
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other teams that matter in any way at this point are the Padres, Mets and Brewers. The Mets can only win 89 if they win out and the Cubs have now won 88, so the Mets will also no longer relevant soon. Padres (WC 2) lose (Cubs up 5). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 9). Brewers win (Cubs down 6). The Brewers magic number relative to the Cubs is 4. The Cubs magic number relative to the Mets is 1. The Cubs magic number relative to the Padres is 5.
Up Next: A battle of lefties in Cincinnati. Shōta Imanaga (9-7, 3.29, 134 IP) starts for the Cubs. He’s just 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA over his last seven starts (44.2 IP). Last time out, he allowed three runs over five against the Rays in a game the Cubs ultimately won 4-3. He faced the Reds in Chicago on August 5 and allowed only three hits and a run while striking out seven and walking none. You know the story by now. He doesn’t really walk anyone. But he occasionally falls victim to the long ball.
Nick Lodolo (8-8, 3.30, 144.2 IP) starts for the Reds. He’s 2-2 with a 3.08 over his last seven (38 IP). Nick was the first round pick of the Reds in 2019 (seventh overall). So another high pedigree opposing pitcher. Last time out he allowed five runs over 5.1 IP against the A’s in Sacramento. His last three starts have been on the West Coast (A’s, Padres, Dodgers going backwards). You would think he’d be happy to be home, but he’s got a 4.10 ERA at home and a 2.74 on the road. He’s started three against the Cubs and allowed 12.2 innings and allowed three runs. All three were allowed in Cincinnati. The numbers look a little funky because he left a start against the Cubs in August at Wrigley Field with an injury. The three starts out west are the three starts he’s made since returning. He’s thrown 15 innings and allowed nine runs since then. Could he be susceptible?
Steal a win, take another step towards that first Wild Card that is so coveted.
