I had a mild heart attack after searching for Lucas Giolito news. Not going to repeat it, but the robots believe a signing has occurred already. There’s no reason to feed the algorithms any further. If content farms are going to wish something into existence, then let me tell you about Shohei Othani opting out of his contract to join the Braves on a league minimum deal. There, let some Dodger fan do a double take.
The Braves have lost a fourth starting pitching option before Opening Day. This may
bring Martin Perez back into the picture. It also might have the Braves scrambling for more bodies. So let’s take a brief look at what Lucas Giolito brings to the table.
Last year he avoided the HR/FB monster in Boston to a 3.41/4.17/4.39 (80/99/110) line. He got 2.15 strikeouts per walk. He has a 93 MPH fastball at 33 years old. Projections have him in the 0.7-1.5 WAR range. He throws fastballs around 48 percent of the time, and breaking stuff around 30 percent. There may be more there, but those are some top-line numbers.
You know who he sounds like? An older, luckier Bryce Elder. Bryce was devoured by the HR/FB monster in Atlanta to a 5.30/4.55/4.04 (125/112/98) line. He got more strikeouts at a 2.56 strikeouts per each walk. He has a 93 MPH fastball at 27 years old. Projections have him in the 0.8-1.7 WAR range. The pitch selection is slightly fewer changeups etc. but you get the idea. MLB Trade Rumors has Giolito getting 2 years at 32 million. He’s not getting that from the Braves, even in the state they’re in. It would probably be closer to 5-10 million per year.
So should the Braves be interested in an older, perhaps luckier Bryce Elder? Can they afford not to, though? Pitchers are dropping like flies here. The Braves have a somewhat light schedule (as far as competition, not volume) in March and April. Maybe they bump along the best they can, pick up a marginal-type starter and see what’s available for trade in June. Or they can sign Giolito, warts and all, and still see what’s out there in June.
There aren’t good choices when you have four starting pitcher options (and maybe a fifth with Lopez) before the season starts. They may have to hold their nose at some point and bring in someone. Only question now is which one.
