Mea culpa for the delay in getting to the rest of the “By the Numbers” series for a busy Cubs trade deadline. While the deadline was moving fast and furious, I was moving out of my old apartment of 10 years and into a new place a few blocks away. Something had to give to get all the boxes packed in time. It was a good reminder that every trade is accompanied by a physical move for players and their families. Let me tell you, the stress of all of that is real, and we should have some grace for young
guys making big moves on the field and off of it.
But the numbers that inspired those moves are still highly relevant so today let’s take a closer look at the stats that sent former first round draft pick Braxton Garrett to Chicago:
The team context numbers haven’t shifted much since I wrote up the Kevin Gausman early last week, so refer to this piece for the Cubs ranks offensively and among starters/relievers. One number that has moved considerably is the Cubs playoff odds at FanGraphs. Those improved from 93.5% the night before the Gausman addition to 98.8% today:
While those numbers have shifted slightly for the better with the addition of Gausman, they (mostly) still explain the Cubs making a move for Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett.
Garrett had Tommy John UCL revision surgery (similar to what Justin Steele is trying to work his way back from) in December 2024. His original surgery was in June 2017, shortly after he was drafted as the seventh overall pick. He’s not a free agent until 2029 and does have an option remaining. This is a solid addition to the Cubs longer term plans, but may not be an impact arm for 2026. The Cubs recalled Garrett on August 6 but optioned him back to Iowa without using him in a game.
The arsenal and stats
It’s a little tricky to speculate on Garrett’s current pitch mix given the lack of innings he’s thrown in the big leagues since 2024, when he only threw 37 MLB innings and 34.2 MiLB innings before being shut down in September and ultimately getting surgery in December. He’s only thrown a full season in the majors once in 2023, when he put up an impressive 159.2 innings with a 3.66 ERA off a 3.68 FIP while striking out 23.7 percent of the batters he faced and walking just 4.4 percent of batters.
With that caveat, when last we saw Garrett pitch he had a five pitch mix with a sinker he throws 31.7 percent of the time at 90.5 MPH, paired with an 82.8 MPH sweeper he threw 26 percent of the time (32 percent of the time to lefties), an 87.5 MPH slider he threw 18 percent of the time (21 percent of the time to righties). He pairs those offerings with an 84.1 MPH change-up and 77.6 MPH curveball he throws 8.8 percent and 8.3 percent of the time, respectively. He also mixes in a fourseam about 7.5 percent of the time. You can get an idea of what that looked like a few years ago below:
It’s a deep arsenal that allows him to tailor his pitches to lefties and righties. In 2023 it resulted in a 49.1 percent ground ball rate which would play nicely with the Cubs defenders behind him.
Garrett has made just two MLB starts this season, both of them in May. That resulted in 4.1 innings pitched with mixed results that sent the southpaw to the Marlins Triple-A team where he’s thrown 77.2 innings total in 2026, 46.1 of them since he was sent down in May. That body of work resulted in a 3.30 ERA off a 3.68 FIP along with a 26.6 percent strikeout rate and a 7.3 percent walk rate.
Unfortunately, that body of work needs a caveat the size of Lake Michigan on it, because his last two starts have looked pretty disastrous. You can see his game logs from FanGraphs since May 27 below:
It is possible that Garrett could throw impact innings for the Cubs in 2026, but it’s also just as likely he could not. It’s also unclear to me if they view him as a starter or reliever for the final two months of the season, but I imaging they are hoping for him to work out the kinks in Des Moines and consider any innings he gives the Cubs this season a bonus.
The Return
Jonathan Long is a solid right-handed hitter who turned 24 in January and is blocked indefinitely by Michael Busch. To give you an idea of how much they believe in Long’s bat, the Cubs had him taking reps at third base last season when Matt Shaw was struggling at the plate. In a full season at Triple-A in 2025 he slashed .305/.404/.479 with 20 home runs in 607 plate appearances. In 2026 with the Cubs he hit .283/.365/.455 with 12 home runs through 452 plate appearances. There are rumors he could be called up imminently by the Marlins. Jace Beck is a 26-year old right handed reliever with a solid fastball that sits around 96 miles per hour. He pairs that with a slider, splitter and curve according to Brooks Baseball. He made his Triple-A debut for the Marlins yesterday and it was a rain-shortened, four-inning no-hitter.
Takeaways
Controlled pitching was extremely expensive this trade deadline so the Cubs pivoted to the shore up their rotations in the future. This is an excellent flyer on a formerly elite prospect. If the pitch lab can figure out what’s been ailing Garrett in his last few outings and keep him healthy this deal could be outstanding over the next three seasons, even if Long is mashing at the plate and Beck is dazzling as a middle reliever for the Marlins.
