Grayson Rodriguez will not be in the Orioles Opening Day rotation mix next year. He won’t be in the organization at all. The Orioles announced a surprise trade of the once-top prospect pitcher on Tuesday
night, shipping Rodriguez to the Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward.
Rodriguez has not thrown a pitch in an MLB game since July 31, 2024. He battled dueling elbow and lat injuries that recurred through 2025, eventually getting surgery for bone chips in his throwing elbow. Mike Elias didn’t sound like he was planning to have Rodriguez in his rotation and now he surely won’t. As a quick, knee-jerk reaction, I think the Orioles are way more down on Rodriguez bouncing back from that surgery and overcoming his past lat injuries than we ever realized.
The reason why it’s clear they’re down on Rodriguez is because of what they got for him. Ward is an outfielder who turns 32 years old next month and has one year remaining before he becomes a free agent. He’s kind of an interesting late-bloomer of a player, a one-time first round pick all the way back in the 2015 draft by the Angels who didn’t really break out until his age 28 season.
That was 2022, and in the four years since, Ward has compiled 10.2 bWAR while hitting .251/.332/.451. He’s played in more than 150 games each of the past two seasons. The righty batter OPSed .918 against lefties in 2025 and has an .824 OPS against southpaws for his career. What’s nice about these splits is he didn’t do too bad against righties either, at least this past season.
This is an addition that could make a real difference compared to what the Orioles had already. Does this mean they’re going to be mostly done with outfielders, and they’ll plan for Colton Cowser as the center fielder? Or is something else going to happen with my assumed corner outfield group of Dylan Beavers and Tyler O’Neill? To these questions, one thing I will say is this: Do not make the mistake of assuming that this move is setting up another move. Elias doesn’t work that way. It should be evaluated on its own terms and maybe they will end up planning a new move based on this new normal.
One year of a kinda-old outfielder for Rodriguez! That’s all, after all that time. It’s a shocking move in that regard. We’ve been waiting for him to be the next big thing for years, ever since the Orioles drafted him in 2018. He dominated his way up through the minors and was a consensus top 10 prospect in the game heading into the 2023 season. We haven’t seen that potential for more than a game or two at a time here in MLB yet.
Rodriguez finishes with a 4.11 ERA in 43 starts with the Orioles. He is only 26 years old, and he will not be a free agent until after the 2029 season. I think of Jake Arrieta, and I hope that Mike Elias is smarter than Dan Duquette.
While I was writing this reaction to the news, my Camden Chat colleague Stacey messaged me and said: “I didn’t think he’d do much, but I wasn’t ready to be done with him.” Nor was I.
Elias, on the other hand, was ready to move on. Now, the Orioles have one year of Taylor Ward at what is projected to be around a $13 million arbitration salary. It is, very early in this offseason, a continuation of the money strategy he employed last year, getting guys for one-year deals that weren’t exactly cheap individually and as a group really took up a lot of money. I hope he will not exclusively pursue that strategy again this winter.
