Arguably no non-playoff team ended the 2024 season better than the Michigan Wolverines, taking down Ohio State yet again then beating Alabama for the second time in the same calendar year. With this strong finish, plus the most-hyped incoming freshman since…forever?, optimism is high for Sherrone Moore’s second season in charge. There might be some bumps along the way, but Game 1 against the New Mexico Lobos should not bring too much trouble.
New Mexico is — to put this gently — not a great team.
Picked 11th in the Mountain West media poll and ranking 130th (out of 136) in the preseason SP+ ratings, expectations are pretty tempered for new head coach Jason Eck. In many ways, this is the best way for the Bryce Underwood era to begin in Ann Arbor. The lights will be on this Saturday night, and the game is extremely winnable. Time to shine.
New Mexico (0-0) at No. 14 Michigan (0-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Aug. 30, 7:30 pm ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: NBC
Though the Lobos should not present a major challenge, it is always fun to see a new opponent. This is actually the fourth straight season that Michigan will welcome a Mountain West team to the Big House, beating both Colorado State and Hawaii in 2022 (during Jim Harbaugh’s totally-legitimate-not-previously-decided “quarterback competition”), UNLV in 2023, and Fresno State in last season’s opener.
Offense: A new hope
I have no idea what to expect from Underwood, but I expect there to be plenty of exciting plays and encouraging signs — with some overthrows and freshman moments sprinkled in. I wrote a bit about the new-look New Mexico secondary, which could take advantage of jitters from the debutant, but will really struggle to cause any significant problems:
To be clear, the pass defense numbers for New Mexico last season were ugly: 5th-worst in PPG, 4th-most passing touchdowns allowed, 6th-most passing yards allowed per game. As a result, SP+ has this defense 3rd-worst heading into the 2025 season.
Who I do expect to flash are Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes. The Lobos gave up 5.42 YPC last season, and despite the addition of edge Keyshawn James-Newby, an FCS All-American who joins his new coach in Albuquerque, this is not a good defensive line. The Wolverines have some questions along their front five (specifically at left tackle and right guard), but the running back duo should have no problem regardless.
As the Michigan ground game continues to be a given, the real question is who ends up on the other side of Underwood’s passes. Donaven McCulley is the prototypical WR1, but Marlin Klein and Semaj Morgan are ready to take a step forward, and redshirt freshman Channing Goodwin looks to be an option as well. Again, the defensive backs will be looking to get on the other side of any misfires, which is about the only way this game gets dicey.
Defense: Reload, not rebuild
Eck brought quarterback Jack Layne with him from Idaho, and the combination’s familiarity and trust may tilt this offense towards the passing game. There are not a ton of pass-catching threats, though, with former Iowa (and Kansas State) receiver Keagan Johnson likely leading the way. The Lobos will have to throw to keep up, but the Michigan secondary is going to have the advantage across the board. Layne did get to see a Big Ten opponent in last year’s game against Oregon, though he completed just 11 of 25 passes for 168 yards.
Last season, New Mexico ran the ball well, leading the country at 6.67 YPC and ranking only behind Army with 254 YPG. A significant amount of this volume came from quarterback Devon Dampier, who transferred to Utah, but running back Eli Sanders topped 1,000 yards as well and is now at USC. Replacing Sanders is the combination of Scottre Humphrey, another FCS All-American, and Weber State transfer Damon Bankston, though a new coaching staff means a different looking offense.
The biggest factor on this side of the ball has to be the defensive line. Michigan’s backups showed out against Alabama in the bowl game, and those players now become the starters. Rayshaun Benny and Derrick Moore have a chance to be the new staples of this defense, and it is just hard to envision even a solid back like Humphrey doing much on the ground against this line. When Layne does look to throw, an essentially brand new offensive line is going to struggle to give him much time at all.
Where did we leave off?
Coming out of Saturday night, the question will be if this feels more like September 2024 or December 2024. It took Moore (and Wink Martindale) nearly 10 games to figure out how to run this team after Harbaugh, and now the roster has lost four top defenders and its biggest weapons on offense. There is a real risk that some of the momentum from the close to the season gets lost with the closing of that chapter.
On the flip side, the new coaching staff does have a year under its belt and gets a potentially generational talent at the most important position. Being able to avoid another reset and simply build off of last season’s conclusion would be massive, and I think the bowl performance gives the staff the benefit of the doubt (at least on defense). New Mexico is not the greatest challenge, but given the excitement going into the year and the country’s first look at Underwood, there is no way that everyone does not overreact one way or another.
