With the Big Ten Tournament tipping off today, the NCAA Tournament picture is as clear as it’s ever been. For the Big Ten, this means likely nine teams in the field with a chance at adding a 10th. There’s also a chance of going down to eight teams should disaster strike and a multitude of bids be stolen from other conferences.
The Michigan Wolverines have essentially locked up a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the rest of Big Ten still has quite a bit to play for. Today, we’ll take a look at which
programs have the most to gain from a good showing in the Big Ten Tournament, as well as those with the most to lose with a bad showing.
Most to Gain
Indiana Hoosiers
This is the most obvious pick. The Hoosiers sit squarely on the bubble, with ESPN’s Joe Lunardi having them as the first team out of the field as of Monday night. At a minimum, Indiana needs to win one game in the Big Ten Tournament to even be considered. The Hoosiers will play the winner of the 15-seed Northwestern vs. 18-seed Penn State in the second round.
After that, the Hoosiers would get a crack at arch-rival, 7-seed Purdue. An upset win over Purdue would put the Hoosiers in decent position, but a win over Purdue and another win over Minnesota/Rutgers/UCLA/Michigan State would do wonders for them, despite being highly unlikely.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa has tumbled a bit lately, losing six of its last eight. However, the Hawkeyes are still firmly in the field. What makes them a team with a ton to gain is their potential seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Bracket Matrix currently has them as the top rated 9-seed. In a season in which the four 1-seeds look like superstars, getting off of the 8/9 matchup is paramount for teams like Iowa.
Climbing up to a 7-seed won’t be easy, but the Hawkeyes have a path to do so. In the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa will face the winner of 16-seed Oregon vs. 17-seed Maryland in the second round before clashing with Ohio State. If Iowa wins twice, it would get a rematch with Michigan. A win over the Wolverines just might be enough to get the Hawkeyes off the 8/9 line.
UCLA Bruins
UCLA is included in this list for many of the same reasons as Iowa. UCLA is squarely on the 8/9 line in the NCAA Tournament. Lunardi currently has the Bruins as the 8-seed in the West Region, meaning a win over 9-seed Texas A&M would set them up with a non-ideal second-round matchup with 1-seed Arizona. In order to avoid that, UCLA will need to win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament.
UCLA is the 6-seed and received a double-bye in this week’s tourney. The Bruins will face the winner of 11-seed Minnesota and 14-seed Rutgers. Should they take care of business in their first game, they would face Michigan State in the quarterfinals. A win over Minnesota/Rutgers likely wouldn’t be enough to get UCLA off the 8-seed line, but a victory over Michigan State could do the trick.
Most to Lose
Ohio State Buckeyes
At the end of February, Ohio State was narrowly on the outside looking for the NCAA Tournament. But since the calendar turned to March, the Buckeyes have picked up massive wins over Purdue, Penn State and Indiana. This has them sitting around the 10-seed line to most bracketologists. That should be enough to get them in, but should a few bid thieves get involved this week, the Buckeyes could be a team that suffers.
The Buckeyes are the 8-seed and have a double-bye this week. One win is likely enough to guarantee their safety, but should they fall to 16-seed Oregon, 17-seed Maryland or 9-seed Iowa, it could be a Selection Sunday full of angst in Columbus.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
As the season has gone on, four teams have separated themselves from the pack in Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida. Those are your likely four 1-seeds come Sunday. With that in mind, it’s imperative for teams to stay off the 4/5 line in the NCAA Tournament to avoid the 1-seeds for as long as possible. Nebraska is a projected 3-seed with next to no chance of climbing up to a 2-seed. It will be looking to hang on to the 3-seed during the Big Ten Tournament and not slip to a 4-seed.
The Cornhuskers are the 2-seed this week and have a triple-bye. They will face either 15-seed Northwestern, 18-seed Penn State, 10-seed Indiana or 7-seed Purdue in their first game. Avoiding an early exit would be huge for Nebraska, but that’s easier said than done with Purdue potentially on the docket.
Purdue Boilermakers
You can essentially copy and paste the Nebraska section for Purdue. The Boilermakers also sit squarely on the 3-seed line to most bracketologists, but there is a higher chance of them falling to a 4-seed than there is of climbing to a 2-seed. Purdue’s path is tougher than Nebraska’s because of its low seeding in the conference tourney. As the 7-seed, the Boilermakers only have a double-bye and could be facing a ferociously hungry Indiana team in their first game.
