So much feast and so much famine in 2026. 10-game winning streaks, a 10-game losing streak. A few prolonged winning periods. A few prolonged losing periods. On the net, the winning has significantly outweighed the losing, but still frustrating. The Cubs have dropped four of seven. A speed bump not particularly notable. But it is exactly the kind of reason why I haven’t gotten overly excited as the Cubs got within striking distance of the Brewers. It’s been a long time since the Brewers have had an extended
downturn. Probably a few years. Maybe I’m forgetting a stretch or two. They aren’t going to come back to us. We have to run them down.
A week like this. The Cubs have scored 22 runs over seven games is why we have trouble keeping up with them. You might have noted the Brewers scored 22 runs in a game this week. It happens. It happens. It happens. I could fill a jar with donations every time I have to type those words. A journeyman not quite starter shut the Cubs down for six innings in this one. He wasn’t particularly stretched out, but the Cubs got no traffic and really didn’t make him work. And he was able to get deep into the game. It happens.
It always feels like either the Cub offense is completely overmatched or everyone is running for the bat rack looking to get some swings in while they are routing someone. The nine games before this seven, the Cubs were 8-1 and scored 67 runs. That stretch includes a series against the back-to-back champs. Wild. It comes. It goes. It’s gone right now.
Off day Thursday, then gotta gear back up. The Fangraphs team schedule feature shows upcoming probabilities. I’m amused looking ahead with them. They aren’t particularly accurate. Though in fairness, they are probabilities and if you really understand probability, a 60/40 matchup can look like a huge edge, but of course there is a lot of variance in there. Anyway, this upcoming six game trip to Seattle and Arizona looks at best like two wins. That’s taking a 50.6 percent game as a win when that’s basically a coin flip. Two teams fighting for playoff spots. They aren’t going to go away easily. It’ll be into September probably before anyone might show any amount of let up. Maybe the Reds series at Wrigley right before the end of the month, but I’m not banking on that.
I didn’t talk much about this game. But the team didn’t accomplish much of anything. I’m still impressed with Clay Holmes. And Alex Bregman played a good shortstop third base, to be sure. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a third baseman field so many balls in front of the shortstop. But it was a day where you saw all of the skills that have led to a previous gold glove there. Actually, you would expect that maybe he’d have won one or two more.
Let’s hit the numbers and then turn the page and try to forget this one.
Three Positives:
- Tyrone Taylor had a single and a double (and a baserunning blunder) before leaving the game.
- Seiya Suzuki took two walks.
- Clay Holmes was less sharp than the last time, but allowed only one run over 5.1 innings.
- Mini hat tip to one of my favorite pitcher accomplishments. Caleb Thielbar faced one batter and recorded two outs thanks to a pickoff.
Game 128, August 19: White Sox 3, Cubs 0 (73-53)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Tyrone Taylor (.135). 2-2, 2B
- Hero: Clay Holmes (.117). 5.1 IP, 23 BF, 6 H, 2 BB, R, K (L 1-2)
- Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar (.057). 0.2 IP, 1 BF, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.243). 0-4
- Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.179). 0.2 IP, 5 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 R
- Kid: Alex Bregman (-.121). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong batted with a runner on second and no outs in the sixth inning, the Cubs trailing by one. He lined out to right field and Tyrone Taylor was out trying to advance to third. (.177)
Cubs Play of the Game: Colson Montgomery batted with a runner on first and no outs in the fourth. He struck out and Braden Montgomery was caught trying to steal second. (.090)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 127 Winner: Alex Bregman 69 of 82 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +27
- Alex Bregman +21
- Shōta Imanaga +14
- Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +13.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Edward Cabrera -12.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: (will return following Friday’s game)
Up Next: The Cubs face the Mariners (59-67). As crazy as it is, the Mariners are only three games out of the last wild card spot. No caps here as the Twins are presently holding that third slot at two games under. I wasn’t sure we’d see a wild card with a losing record at three wild cards, but here we are. Almost everything that could go wrong for the Mariners has this year. But they are still 33-29 at home. So, no real push over.
Matthew Boyd (8-2, 4.02) will be next up for the Cubs. He got rocked last time out against the Cardinals, allowing seven runs over 5.1 innings. He’ll look for a bounce back here. Emerson Hancock should be due for the Mariners. Hancock (7-7, 3.30) has been quite good. Even better over his last seven (2-3, 2.89, 37.1 IP). So this is a tough matchup. He won his last game at Houston, allowing two runs over seven.
When the Cubs get into the Mariner pen in this series, the Mariner pen is 20th in team ERA (4.24). They’ve converted just 28 of 48 save opportunities. The Mariners have used fewer innings out of the bullpen than any other team, by a comfortable margin. The Cub bullpen, for instance, has thrown about 80 more innings (in three more games). So expect the Mariners to be patient with their starters.
The Mariner offense is 27th in team OPS. So this is where you rely on your pitching staff to shut it down.
It’s not going to be easy, but go find a couple of wins.
