The Miami Hurricanes (11-2) head to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX to face the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) in round two of the College Football Playoff. We covered Ohio State’s loss to the Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship Game in part 1 of the series. In part two we’ll rewatch the Texas vs. OSU game from August.
The Doppler
Miami is 26th in Points per play at 0.462 while OSU’s defensive PPP is 2st at 0.156. OSU’s PPP is 14th in FBS at 0.500 vs. Miami’s Opponent PPP being 6th at 0.208.
Miami has scored
31.2 points per game so far this season which is good for 27th in FBS. OSU’s held opponents to 8.8 PPG which is 1st in FBS. DC Matt Patricia has done a great job with this defense.
Miami’s defense has held teams to 13.8 PPG which is 6th in FBS, while OSU has scored 32 PPG which is 22nd in FBS.
Indiana held OSU to a ‘bad game’ on offense but Sayin still looked good as we said before. On the season Sayin completed 78.4% of his passes with 31 TD’s and six INT’s.
Bo Jackson rushed for over 1,000 yards with five TD’s on 6.2 yards per carry. CJ Donaldson has 10 TD’s as a thumper in the red zone.
WR’s Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are elite threats to score at any time. Smith caught 80 balls on 13.6 yards per catch and 11 TD’s. Tate averaged 17.5 yards per catch with nine TD catches.
Caden Curry has been a dominant DE this season. Curry has logged 16.5 TFL’s and 11 sacks with one forced fumble. On the other side Kenyatta Jackson has 11 TFL’s and 6.5 sacks. LB Arvell Reese has 10 TFL’s and 6.5 sacks of his own.
NT Kayden McDonald will be over the center and picked up eight TFL’s and three sacks at 300+ pounds. Caleb Downs, the Styles Bros. and Davison Igbinosun have over a dozen PBU’s and five INT’s.
Brandon Innis has been a solid punt returner with 11-yards per return. Lorenzo Styles has a kick return for a touchdown. Jayden Fielding was 16-of-19 on field goals this season with a miss against IU.
The Film
The film I’ve chosen for part 2 in the series will be OSU vs. Texas. The Buckeyes beat the Longhorns 14-7 in The Horse Shoe back in August. Teams change a lot over four months but it’s a like-opponent to Miami’s win over Texas A&M.
Texas finished 6-of-19 on money downs while the Buckeyes were 4-of-14. Texas was flagged for 50-yards in penalties while OSU was flagged for only 15-yards. UT had the lone turnover, an Arch Manning INT.
No one even attempted a FG in this game and no special teams plays really stood out to me, either.
THE BUCKEYE OFFENSE
Sayin averaged 6.3 yards per attempt with a touchdown. UT failed to sack Sayin who rushed twice for two yards.
Bo Jackson had yet to come onto the scene and Donaldson rushed for 3.5 yards per carry with a score. James Peoples averaged only 2.0 yards per carry. The Texas D-Line only came up with one TFL vs. OSU.
Tate caught only two balls but had a 40-yard long and a score. Smith was held to 43 yards on six catches. Sayin hit six receivers with only two hitting double-digit yards per catch marks.
Above– Interesting 4th and 1 call. A Flood route where the crosser has to come from the other side of the formation. Sayin could hit that early but doesn’t and the slide is covered. The QB scramble is taken by a ‘boot’ player.
Above– OSU motions to get 3 over 2 but the LB isn’t fooled, he sees screen all the way.
Above– No.0 for UT should track the near hip. He’s clearly turning and running past the play. That’s not his job. His job is to work inside-out and that’s why the Patriots had that phrase “Do your job!” on the wall- because if you start doing someone else’s job (outside force) you give up the inside.
Above– The inside arrow is where he should have his hat, the outside arrow is where he tags off like it’s a practice drill. Square, scrape, scallup, buzz, finish. OSU has Smith, Tate, Jackson, Donaldson and Innis… you can’t underscore how effective and explosive those players can be on offense.
Above– The motion player drags the LB wide and deep. Smith sets down over the ball for a nice catch and throw. The S stays deep because of Smith’s speed.
Above– Every team in the country has a kick and wrap play. Here the BSG is kicking the EMOL and the TE is the wrapper to the LB. The PSG comes off and works to the BSILB. This is where the DE has to wrong arm this. See how he loses leverage and his hat is outside? It has to be inside to force a bounce and a slower ‘hit’ of the hole.
Above- Slot fade. Sayin throws this short and inside vs. deep and outside. Creates a really hard play for the WR instead of for the DB.
Above– When the time comes OSU can line up and win bully ball. Three TE’s on the field and Donaldson at RB. He’s the red zone thumper ala Mark Fletcher.
Above– If OSU wants to boot Sayin into the end zone from the -9 yard line you have to sell out one DE to pressure him. Make him throw an intentional grounding, try to do too much and throw a bad pick or fumble. Anything but play passive.
Above– Eyes and chest back to the ball. If he attempts to catch this over the shoulder or a half turn it’s INC, instead it’s a TD after this great defensive effort.
THE BUCKEYE DEFENSE
Manning was held to just 5.7 yards per attempt with one TD and one interception. Arch ran the ball 10 times for 38 yards including one sack.
Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter averaged 5.0 and 4.0 yards per carry, respectively. Ryan Wingo had an eight yard carry as well.
Manning hit seven different receivers with three hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. WR Parker Livingstone averaged 23.5 yards per catch with a score.
Above– When OSU plays the low you throw high. Arch Manning worm balls this thing but that’s not on the play design, it’s on the QB (or whoever named him the starter). Standard Y-Sail aka Flood concept.
Above– Think about inserting Elija Lofton and using him as a lead blocker. this is a standard ‘dive’ blocking scheme: count men, pick one, block him.
Above– The standard kick and wrap we’ve seen from everyone this season and Miami runs as well. The EMOL will get kicked out and the wrapper works to the LB. The RB can’t over-run this play, patience and vision.
Above– Manning reads Curry and Curry sits. He’s athletic enough to sit and then close on what you decide. Manning gives vs. the pull and throwing the slide to the TE.
Above– No idea why Manning doesn’t sling this out wide he’s got a 4over3 look outside and a 7man box inside. Miami can’t do this with Beck but can with Toney at the Gadjit spot.
Above– Beck has to scramble and take a few yards when three DL wind up in a line and have zero rush lane discipline.
Above– OSU holds Manning and Texas on 4th and goal from the UT +1 yard line. OSU cuts the Texas OL and the LB’ers close down fast. Bully Ball defense from DC Matt Patricia.
Above– Beck can’t throw deep and late vs. OSU. They have ballhawks and will close on his Greg Maddux’ian fastball.
Above– This is a ball placement issue. If there’s no one in the window on a lead THROW IT IN FRONT. Instead it’s behind and a PBU.
Above– A bunched set still works. Three stacked up threats leads to a need for communication.
Above– If we’re even… I’m leavin! OSU has three guys on that inside threat and the outside threat has a one-on-one and it’s a TD for Texas.
The Forecast
While the Canyonero main theme was to own the damn road in part one of the series, the individual keys to victory are:
1- Force that Sayin pick. Sayin has thrown six INT’s but has also thrown one in back-to-back games. With Bryce Fitzgerald roaming centerfield Miami needs that “Sayin pick” that gives UM a short field against the OSU defense.
2- Control Curry. Caden Curry is a menace and this will be a huge test for Alex Mirabal and the ‘Canes OL. Control Curry and you still have to deal with McDonald and Jackson- but Curry is their Rueben Bain.
3- Force Tate to beat you, not Smith. Bracket Smith and keep him contained while forcing Tate to beat you deep. Tate will get that one big play, but you can’t let Smith continue to get 1st downs and keep drives alive.
Score Prediction: OSU by 6. The Miami and Texas A&M game was a barn burner slugfest reminiscent of the old Miami vs. FSU games from the early 90’s or the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers from the late 90’s. A slugfest with hard hits and a reliance on defense and kicking.
Smart QB play wins close, big games along with defense. This will be another close game but I think Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will be too much for Miami in the end. OSU wins on a deep shot type TD.
