Apparently the Michigan Wolverines saw everyone else faltering in the Big Ten and wanted to get in on the action, but thankfully woke up in time to avoid disaster at Northwestern. As a result, the Wolverines maintain a two-game advantage in the loss column and have nearly a 70% chance to win the conference outright per Torvik. Losing Saturday’s game to the UCLA Bruins would bring that number down to under 50%, however.
Kenpom has Michigan favored in each of the final seven games, but only Saturday’s
contest and the Minnesota game sit over 90%, meaning the rest of the schedule is going to be a gauntlet. The Bruins are not a bad team, sitting in the top seven of the Big Ten and the top 40 of Kenpom, but the Wolverines really need this one with Purdue and Duke coming up next.
UCLA (17-7, 9-4) at No. 2 Michigan (23-1, 13-1)
Date & Time: Saturday, Feb. 14, 12:45 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: CBS
It was Michigan who won the first-ever conference matchup between these teams, finishing off the sweep in Los Angeles last January in a battle of top-25 teams. That win really established Dusty May’s group as a legitimate threat, especially after seeing Vlad Goldin go for 36 points against a UCLA defense that had really no idea what to do on the interior.
Two Stats to Watch
UCLA 3PT Shooting: 38.1% (2nd B1G)
The Bruins take a quality over quantity approach from behind the arc, generating just 29.2% of their points from threes and taking the second-fewest in the conference in terms of shot distribution. That is accompanied by a 38.1% accuracy when they do attempt a shot from deep, with both Tyler Bilodeau and Trent Perry each hitting well above 40% of theirs.
For the Michigan defense, this department has turned to a strength as of late. In the five games after the Wisconsin massacre (45.5%), opponents hit a modest 31.3% of their threes, which includes a passable game against the potentially lethal Nebraska attack. In the four games since then, the Wolverines’ opponents have been ice cold, making only 21.1% of their attempts, helping the defense post much better results.
Aside from Mick Cronin’s antics, this is the thing to watch out on Saturday. UCLA is unlikely to over-index on threes, but if some shots fall early, the visitors might have no choice but to lean into them, especially if the defense allows for it. Michigan has been much better avoiding breakdowns on the perimeter, but this is the exact type of team that will take advantage of anyone falling asleep.
UCLA Takeaways: 16.9% (3rd B1G)
The recipe for an upset has two main ingredients: threes and takeaways. The Bruins’ have the potential to hit on both fronts, though the latter is far from a foregone conclusion. Despite the third-highest forced turnover rate in Big Ten play, the numbers have really fallen off recently; just two of the past six games have even topped 16%, though a 13-takeaway game last time out does provide a little hope.
Meanwhile, Michigan is still just 13th in the conference in ball security, though trending in the right direction. Both Penn State and Ohio State have above-average turnover rates, and the Wolverines were very good against them at 12.6% and 12.1%, respectively. The number jumped up a bit in Evanston, but each of the past four games have been tolerable.
Again, this facet of the game feels fairly opponent invariant, as Michigan is its own worst enemy. Take care of the ball, and the offense should hum against a Bruins defense that is below-average against two-point shooting. Have a sloppy afternoon, though, and suddenly a few threes on the other end will force the Wolverines to climb out of a hole for the second time this week. I would rather not face that test again just yet.
