Who: Phoenix Suns (43-35) vs. Houston Rockets (49-29)
When: 8:00pm Arizona Time
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Peacock/NBC
Listen: SiriusXM Channel 214
78 down, 4 to go. The Rockets have clinched a playoff spot, and the Suns have clinched a Play-In spot. While not technically impossible for the Suns to take the Timberwolves’ standings spot number 6, it is increasingly improbable, given the 3-game deficit. The Suns, and basically everyone else, are playing warm-up for the postseason
at this point.
That said, the Suns have won 3 of their last 5. Though the victories haven’t always been pretty at times, they are still victories. Most importantly, the Suns have finally started to get healthy. Mark Williams and Dillon Brooks are both back and playing big minutes.
With that health has come a shortened rotation. Sunday against the Bulls, none of Rasheer Fleming, Ryan Dunn, or Khaman Maluach saw minutes.
Will the trend continue? We will see tonight against the Rockets.
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Haywood Highsmith – OUT (Right Knee)
Rockets
- Steven Adams – OUT (Ankle)
- Fred VanVleet – OUT (ACL)
What to Watch For
The Rockets are healthy, and when they are, they are BIG. They are second in the league in blocks per game and first in rebounds despite being eleventh in defensive rebounds. That means they crash the offensive glass hard. They are first in the league in offensive rebounds per game at 15.0. Now, that said, your Phoenix Suns are fourth in the league in offensive rebounds per game at 13.0.
Overall, by the numbers, the Rockets have a better offense, better defense, are better at crashing the glass, and are much taller. I have thought all season that this is a top-two worst matchup in the NBA for the Suns.
That thought is sustained by history. The Suns have lost the last seven matchups against the Rockets. Their last win against Houston came on February 29th, 2024, in a game that saw Kevin Durant score 24 points for Phoenix and Jalen Green score 34 for Houston.
Tonight, we are watching to see if the Suns can get a big win against a bad matchup going into the play-in.
Key to a Suns Win
If the Suns want to win, they are going to have to play bigger than they are. Against the Bulls, Jordan Ott started Jordan Goodwin. Goodie may be the best in the league at playing bigger than he is, so I hope to see him starting again. He had a good night, after all, putting up 12 points and 7 rebounds.
Tonight, it is all about crashing the glass. Phoenix can’t do anything about the hands they are going to have in their faces; all they can do is work hard to secure the rebound after misses.
Prediction
My confidence isn’t high after recent performances, and the Rockets have had the Suns’ number for over two calendar years now. What’s important is that the Suns fight hard and feel warmed up going into their first play-in game.
Rockets 114, Suns 110
