Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 1 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FS1
- Location: TDECU Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: Houston (-13.5)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: Houston leads, 1-0
- Last meeting: Houston 43, West Virginia 41 — October 12, 2023
- Current streak: Houston, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
Two years ago in the same venue, Houston seemingly watched its first-ever Big 12 victory since joining the league slip away. West Virginia trailed by 11 with under four minutes remaining, but with 12 seconds
left, Hudson Clement caught a 50-yard touchdown reception on 4th and 10 to spoil the Cougars’ night. However, Donovan Smith then launched a 49-yard heave which was deflected by Joseph Manjack IV and into the gloves of Stephon Johnson, securing a Hail Mary miracle win for Houston and commencing a field storm.
That was a monumental finish in Cougar history, but Big 12 wins have since become the norm. No. 22 Houston (7-1, 4-1 Big 12) is ranked for the first time since joining the league, serving as the considerable favorite over West Virginia (2-6, 0-5 Big 12). Just like the 2023 matchup vs. the Mountaineers, it’s a blackout in TDECU Stadium, although this time, the theme is to pay homage to the late Kurt Hester — Houston’s strength and conditioning coach who passed Saturday, Oct. 25.
West Virginia Mountaineers outlook
West Virginia entered the season with a greatly transformed roster under current (and former) head coach Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez checked off a significant box upon arriving by defeating arch rival Pitt in Week 3, but since the Backyard Brawl upset, the Mountaineers are 0-5 against Big 12 competition — losing three matchups by over 30 points.
The Mountaineers are incredibly banged up at the skill positions. Last week, three quarterbacks — starter Nicco Marchiol (out for season), Jaylen Henderson, and Khalil Wilkins — were all sidelined vs. TCU, leaving Scotty Fox Jr. as the lone option. While Wilkins is probable to return this week, perhaps Rodriguez and staff found something in Fox after a 301-yard, 2-touchdown, 0-outing against the Horned Frogs’ defense. It marked the best individual passing performance by a Mountaineer this year with a 78-yard margin over second place and the first time any quarterback delivered multiple touchdowns in a game.
Fox’s performance kept West Virginia within striking distance of TCU, but unfortunately for the Mountaineers, it was complemented by an uncharacteristically brutal performance from the nation’s 47th-ranked rushing offense. West Virginia is shorthanded at running back as well, still devoid of Jahiem White and Tye Edwards, leaving redshirt freshman Diore Hubbard as the primary rushing option — although Wilkins could be inserted at quarterback to spark the run game as well.
At wide receiver, the Mountaineers lean heavily on Jacksonville State transfer Cam Vaughn, who followed Rodriguez from Conference USA to the Big 12 over the offseason. Vaughn is producing similar numbers as West Virginia’s overwhelming top target, generating 419 receiving yards (next closest Mountaineer has 159) and snagging half of the team’s six passing touchdowns.
West Virginia rebounded well from a defensive disaster at UCF, limiting TCU to three second half points in a 23-17 Week 9 defeat. When the Mountaineers deliver stronger defensive performances, it’s usually due to stepping up in the run game — as observed against Ohio, Pitt, and TCU. West Virginia is 111th nationally in passing defense and that issue has persisted all year along, particularly on the road. The Mountaineers stroll into Houston allowing 500+ yards in each of their last two road contests, allowing over 320 passing to BYU and UCF.
The health of the defense is significantly greater than that of the offense, remaining equipped with most top contributors. Another Jax State transfer, nickel Fred Perry, leads the group with 50 tackles, six tackles for loss, and a pair of forced fumbles as the most dangerous defender. Where West Virginia needs to step up most vs. Houston is the pass rush. Outside linebacker Chase Wilson currently ranks atop the team with 3.0 sacks, and disrupting the pocket is its key to a stronger showing in the aerial defense.
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston is back in the AP Poll for the first time since Week 2 of 2022 — its swan song season in the American Conference. The Cougars were fortunate to generate a few Big 12 wins in years one and two in the conference, but this year, Willie Fritz has them gunning for Arlington.
Houston rides a 4-game win streak highlighted by impressive wins over Arizona and Arizona State — with the latter coming in a hostile road environment. One reason the Cougars are thriving in Big 12 play is they start games incredibly well. They’ve scored points on the opening possession in all four Big 12 wins, jumping out to leads like 13-0 over Colorado or 24-0 over Arizona State.
Leading these early drives is quarterback Conner Weigman, who is in the midst of his best football in four seasons. Weigman gives Houston a chance to win each week with his ball security, firing 12 touchdowns compared to two interceptions. The Cougars only made him throw as many as 25 passes twice this season, and he’s shown to be a capable 270-300-yard guy if needed. But the element of Weigman’s game that is incredibly lethal is his mobility. In Big 12 play along, the junior reset his career-high in rushing three times, posting 83 on Colorado, elevating to 98 on Arizona, and peaking at 111 on Arizona State last Saturday. QB draws and QB sneaks are frequent short-yardage plays in the Houston offense — reasons he ranks third in the Big 12 in rushing touchdowns.
Houston eyes more consistency in the run game outside of Weigman. Running back Dean Connors has totaled 100 yards twice this year and is a viable receiver, but the Cougars’ run blocking is inconsistent at times for the running backs. However, the pass protection has been sharp lately, refusing to allow more than one sack in four-straight contests.
That gives more time for tight end Tanner Koziol and the wide receivers to finish their routes. Koziol, a 6’7” walking mismatch, was an unstoppable force last week at Arizona State, producing a season-high 100 yards on seven receptions with a slew of broken tackles. Amare Thomas is the other name to watch in the passing game. The UAB transfer has 30 receptions on the season when no other healthy Houston wide receiver exceeds six.
Houston’s defense limited a third Big 12 opponent to 20 or fewer last week, and overall, the unit ranks 21st nationally in points allowed per game. There is concern with closing effort though as the Cougars lost their last two fourth quarters by a combined score of 30-3 despite the triumphant outcomes.
Houston thrives primarily on stopping the run, surrendering 120 rushing yards per game on a 3.4 average. Defensive tackle Carlos Allen is on a tear with first-level stops, picking up 52 as an interior lineman, along with 4.5 tackles for loss. The defensive line also receives a significant boost from Eddie Walls III, who tallied three sacks last week to get to a team-high 5.5 on the year. Despite the pressure, the Cougars are struggling to land interceptions — picking off one pass in the last five games. Cornerbacks Latrell McCutchin and Will James look to spearhead that effort as the Cougars’ hope to control a struggling West Virginia offense.
Prediction
A red-hot Houston team is at home, sporting a 4-1 Big 12 record against a West Virginia squad that’s endured several blowouts for an 0-5 conference standing. Signs point to a comfortable Houston victory as Tanner Koziol should be able to feast on a passing defense that’s been especially porous on the road this year. Houston can also mix things up in the ground game with Conner Weigman and Dean Connors to move the ball on the 106th-ranked FBS yards per game defense.
West Virginia might see some success through the air with Scotty Fox Jr., but it won’t be enough to upset the No. 22 team in the country.
Prediction: Houston 37, West Virginia 16
