The no. 5 UConn men’s basketball team came out of its historical non-conference gauntlet with an impressive 9-1 record. Now, a new challenge awaits; avoid landmines in the graveyard that is the Big East.
First up on the conference slate is 8-2 (1-0) Butler, one of the few Big East teams that has exceeded expectations so far.
The Bulldogs rank No. 51 in KenPom, with the No. 39 offense in the country, and 42nd in NET. Pedestrian at first glance, maybe, but Thad Matta has Butler legging out KenPom efficiency metrics by +4, and boasts a potential conference player of the year in Michael Ajayi. They boast an impressive non-conference win against Virginia and took down Providence in double OT on Sunday.
As far as UConn, the Huskies sit No. 7 in KenPom and eighth in the NET. They’re one of only six teams with a Top 20 KenPom adjusted offense and defense, and their one blemish on the year (Arizona) was without Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins.
They’ll look to avoid a conference opener slipup and demonstrate complementary hoops that has been elusive at times, despite their overall elite standing in the national landscape.
Date/Time: Tuesday, Dec. 16, 8:30 p.m.
TV/Stream: Peacock, NBC Sports Network (for YouTubeTV subscribers)
Radio: UConn Sports Network, Sirius XM 85, Sirius/XM online streaming
Odds: UConn -14.5 OU 149.5
Location: PeoplesBank Arena — Hartford, CT
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn
Series History
The Huskies and Bulldogs have played 11 times in their history with ten of those times coming in Big East play. UConn has won all 11 matchups including the 2011 National Championship game. They last faced off on January 21, 2025 when the Huskies beat Butler, 80-78, in overtime at the former XL Center (now PeoplesBank Arena). Solo Ball and Alex Karaban led the way with 23 points and 19 points respectively.
Inactives report
As of this writing, all 15 Huskies are active for the Big East home opener.
What to Watch For
Fire and Ice
The Bulldogs (had) one of the most intriguing starting fives in the conference. It starts and ends though, with Michael Ajayi and Finley Bizjack.
Ajayi, has quietly become ball-knowers’ pick to win Big East Player of the Year. The 6-foot-7, 235-pound grad transfer from Gonzaga does it all, averaging 17.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game (leading the country), to go with 3.2 assists and 1.1 blocks. He has eight double-doubles already this season, third-most in the nation.
He’s a bruiser with an improved jumper that puts relentless rim pressure on the rim. Think Kadary Richmond with less handle but more size and athleticism, all in the hands of Thad Matta, who loves to run teams through skilled forwards
Fresh off his second Big East Player of the Week honors after dropping 28 and 15 in a double-OT thriller against Providence, Ajayi played every minute of that tilt and shot 16 free throws. Given UConn’s propensity for fouling, keeping him off the charity stripe and limiting second-chances — he averages over three offensive rebounds per game — should be circled twice on Hurley’s whiteboard.
With Tarris Reed Jr. likely starting on Drayton Jones — more on him later — Alex Karaban and Jaylin Stewart will likely draw most of the reps on Ajayi. Stewey has excelled against bruisers like Eric Dixon in the past, while The Captain has the craftiness to negate the athleticism advantage.
The Huskies will want to avoid slighter defenders getting switched onto him, or at least get ready to dial in those weakside help rotations.
Finley Bizjack is your classic— ‘I’d hate him if he wasn’t on my team’ guy. The 6’4 junior is Butler’s leading scorer at 18.8 ppg, an ‘all gas no brakes’ bucket with logo range and no conscious. Jalen Jackson’s injury has meant the ball’s in Bizjack’s hands more, one of the main reasons why Butler is 28th in the country in adjusted pace.
Him and Ajayi two account for 40% of Butler’s offense. The pick-and-roll combo with Jones creates the space for Bizjack to exploit, and is analytically Butler’s best source of two-man offense. UConn will need to not bite on the foul baiting, run him off the three point line, and make him a driver first where hopefully their size can disrupt his creative shotmaking. This could be a Jayden Ross game if Bizjack is doing his best Xaivian Lee impression.
Together, Bizjack and Ajayi have those types of inside-out, complementary skillsets that take teams far in March. Luckily, the Huskies are well-rounded and deeper, and the hope is Dan Hurley can throw enough different looks at the two studs to slow them down.
The Puzzle Pieces Fit
What makes Butler intriguing is that Thad Matta has found the right pieces to put around his two two-way studs in Ajayi and Bizjack. Bizjack isn’t really a distributor and Ajayi is not a plus shooter, but there’s help from the rest of the roster in those areas.
Unfortunately, the Bulldogs were dealt a blow over the weekend after point guard Jalen Jackson was announced out for the season due to ankle surgery. The 6-foot-2 senior hadn’t played since a win against Virginia but was a steady floor general who found guys in right spots. Freshman Stink Robinson is part of the point guard by committee also featuring Bizjack and Yame Butler. Stink started the last four games and put up 11 points against the Friars.
You never want to be the game where a precocious freshman ‘figures it out.’ Relentless ball pressure from Demary Jr and Malachi Smith will be required to make Stink stink.
Six-foot-6 Maryland transfer Jamie Kaiser is a heck of a Swiss army knife, a do-it-all role player that fills in where needed. He won’t take a ton of shots, but everything he does is underrated and is one of Butler’s best perimeter defenders. Evan Haywood provides elite floor spacing and Yohan Traore is a capable backup.
Jones was a player I noted in our Big East cellar roundup as one of the reasons why the Bulldogs would punch above their weight. The 6-foot-11 South Carolina State product is already flashing all-conference level rim protection, and is mobile enough in drop coverage that he won’t get hunted in high ball screens. He averages only two fouls per game and just dropped eight assists vs. the Friars.
If Reed can establish some low-post presence early against Jones, it would go a long way in unlocking the rest of UConn’s actions.
Between Ajayi, Jones, and Kaiser, Butler has three of the conference’s top five rebounders, and the ‘Dogs are 10th nationally in rebounding percentage. Reed will get his, but its really on the guards to gang rebound and limit second chances.
Stink-Bizjack-Kaiser-Ajayi-Jones. There’s defense, shooting, rebounding, playmaking, and size in that starting five. Factor in microwave Haywood off the bench, and that’s a formidable top six for an allegedly middle-of-the-pack Big East team. The returns are still coming in, but there also seems to be more of an ‘edge’ to this Butler teams, a departure from the last few years.
What Are You?!
I’ve spent all this time on Butler and not UConn because, quite frankly, I’m not quite sure what UConn ‘is’ at this point. They are very good, yes. a Final Four favorite and a team that has righted the wrongs of last year, from a personnel standpoint? Also, unequivocally, yes.
But you can also say — mostly due to injuries — that we haven’t seen the full UConn juggernaut. Is Reed the go-to option? Can Solo Ball shoot out of his three-point slump? Will Silas Demary Jr continue to follow the Tristen Newton path of development, where some early-season inconsistencies get ironed out? What does a healthy Braylon Mullins do to the team’s shot diet?
Beyond the individual questions, as I said on the Fast Break Podcast a few weeks ago, Donovan Clingan ain’t walkin through that door. That may mean, until the team truly clicks, that even if the Huskies are rattling off Evan Miya 10-0 killshots, it may be harder to put teams away. Look at the Texas game; UConn was in full control but didn’t string together enough plays to really finish off a flawed yet dangerous team.
The Big East is littered with Texas’; flawed but dangerous teams you don’t want to catch on an off night. Last year’s results be damned, the Huskies are the hunted once more. If they’re not careful, they could drop more than a few games to teams gunning for them and dent their otherwise gaudy resume. But conversely, if the Huskies do develop that closer mentality and put teams down early, well, get ready to learn Indianapolis.
That’s what I’ll be watching most from UConn’s perspective; can this team stop playing with its food and learn to take lesser-talented teams out behind the woodshed.
That will be a tough task. The Huskies have won just one conference opener in Dan Hurley’s tenure. Butler does some things that UConn struggles with, namely drawing fouls and crashing the glass at an elite level. Factor in not one but two game-breakers in Ajayi and Bizjack, and it wouldn’t shock me to see the Bulldogs sneak into the NCAA tournament.
Let’s just have them figure it out next week.
