Now that the Wisconsin Badgers have learned their somewhat tricky early scheduling fates, including a 10:50 AM local Thursday tip in Portland versus upset darlings High Point, it’s time to roll out my Best, Worst, and Most Likely Scenarios for their NCAA Tournament.
Nolan Winter’s status makes this a bit tougher to gauge, but I’m factoring him in with some quality minutes but not a full workload.
Not many prognosticators like the Badgers to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, if even that far. This is a good
thing, as this team has seemed to thrive when it’s cast as an underdog, especially late in the season.
Disclaimer: For this exercise, I use the 80 percent in the middle. I will not be exploring literal Best/Worst cases. I throw out the craziest 10 percent at both the top and the bottom and roll with what’s left over.
Best Case Scenario: Final Four
No, this isn’t likely, especially with elite heavyweight Arizona waiting for the Badgers should each advance to the Sweet Sixteen. But Wisconsin’s unique combination of outstanding outside shooting and high-end guard play puts them in the conversation to make a four-game run in this tournament.
It will take laser focus and some breaks to dispatch High Point, Arkansas, Arizona, and (likely) Purdue in succession, but I’ve managed to convince myself that it’s possible. Not likely, but possible.
Worst Case Scenario: First Round Flameout
I actually struggled a bit with this one. I’m not buying the sexy upset pick High Point hype. They are a good team with some fun players, but also a squad that has played ONE Q1 + Q2 game all season (and lost it). And they really don’t play great defense. Wisconsin has feasted on similar teams this season.
But there’s just enough intrigue here (and, perhaps, a bit of 2024 JMU game PTSD) to allow a High Point upset inside the door as a worst case. This would take some awful combo of foul trouble, poor shooting, and a wild performance from the Panthers, but it could happen. That all said, I wouldn’t bet on it. I don’t think Wisconsin is a great matchup for High Point.
Most Likely: Sweet Sixteen Again at Last
I went back and forth on this one. SEC Tourney champ Arkansas is a really tough matchup and is on an absolute heater. Point guard Darius Acuff Jr. is also an elite player, who you can already pencil in for 25 points versus Wisconsin.
But I think this Badger squad is cut from the right cloth to handle this moment. The Boyd/Blackwell backcourt is hard to match (Boyd also has Final Four experience), and some guys seem to be heating up at the right time, like Austin Rapp.
Yes, Nolan Winter is an X-factor who could greatly sway all these predictions, but I ended up thinking a Wisconsin Sweet Sixteen is just a hair more likely than a Round of 32 loss.
Here’s to hoping I’m right so the Badgers can taste the rarified air of a second March Madness weekend for the first time since 2017.
