Everton fans have experienced an intriguing start to the new campaign. A summer of poor preseason outings, with transfer activity occurring in stop/start fashion – and too slow for most – saw the team fall to a demoralizing 1-0 defeat by Leeds United. Such a poor initial performance – and result – against a newly-promoted side, served to dissipate much of the good feeling that’s surrounded the club since the return of David Moyes in January.
Thankfully, normal service was resumed immediately after,
with the Toffees embarking on a run of three wins within six days. A victorious debut competitive outing at Hill Dickinson Stadium, over Brighton & Hove Albion – albeit not one quite as comfortable as the 2-0 scoreline would suggest – was followed by a routine EFL Cup win over Mansfield Town, also on home turf. A 3-2 road win at Molineux, against Wolverhampton Wanderers, capped off a successful week.
Everton entered the international break sitting in fifth place in what is a very early Premier League table, but it’s an unaccustomed position for the club to find itself in at this stage of the season. The deadline day arrival of midfielder Merlin Röhl, following that of Tyler Dibling a week earlier, has also boosted moods. The Blues play five matches before the next halt in the campaign, and first up they welcome surprise strugglers Aston Villa to their state-of-the-art new ground.
Form
Villa almost made it back-to-back Champions League qualifications last term, before falling at the final hurdle, on home turf against a hapless Manchester United side enduring their worst campaign for decades. Whilst it could be argued that a fifth-place league finish, an FA Cup semi-final, and a UCL quarter-final exit to eventual winners PSG could constitute a strong campaign, failing to make it into the UCL cast a shadow over the summer. The Midlanders had budgeted for participation in the competition, so falling short wiped a significant projected income from the balance sheet. As a result, the club has been forced into a modest spending plan by the Premier League’s PSR mechanism.
During the transfer window, the Villans generated a net profit of €24.7m. The team’s lone major spend has been on Ivory Coast attacker Evann Guessand (€30m, OGC Nice), which was supplemented by a late flurry of activity, as they scrambled to bring in three new players on deadline day, in loan signings Harvey Elliot from Liverpool and Jadon Sancho, along with veteran free agent defender Victor Lindelöf — the latter both from the Red Devils. Whereas Sancho is a straight loan, with Villa covering 80% of the winger’s £200k weekly salary, they are obliged to buy Elliot for a fee of €41m at the end of the season.
The club’s PSR issue stems not from prodigious spending on transfer fees, but on their high wage bill. They alleviated some of this by finally bidding farewell to Philippe Coutinho (free, Vasco da Gama) who’d been signed on vast wages from Barcelona three years ago, during Steven Gerrard’s tenure. Also departing was winger Leon Bailey (loan, Roma), Álex Moreno (free, Girona) and Leander Dendoncker (free, Real Oviedo), but Villa still had to sanction the sale of academy graduate Jacob Ramsey (€45.2m, Newcastle United) due to financial pressure.
If there was gloom surrounding the team heading into the new campaign, then it’s been reflected on the pitch. In their opening fixture – a 0-0 draw with the Magpies at Villa Park – they were dominated for the entirety of a desultory first half, before showing some signs of life following the interval, but were reduced to ten men 20 minutes into the second period. A visit to Brentford saw them again start torpidly, conceding what turned out to be an early winner, though overall they were unlucky to lose. But they were terrible last time out, being thrashed 3-0 by Crystal Palace in front of a stunned home crowd. Sitting 19th in the table, surely they are too good for this form to continue — but when will they turn it around?
Style of Play
Unai Emery did reverse the fortunes of the club when he succeeded the floundering Gerrard almost three years ago, guiding them to seventh, fourth and fifth-place finishes, and European football in all its varieties during each full season that he’s been in charge. The Basque tactician tends to stick to a 4-2-3-1 formation, and a fairly pragmatic, though quite aggressive style, favouring a high line and relying on defenders to handle themselves in the one-on-one situations which will inevitably result.
Villa aren’t a possession side as such, but do command plenty of the ball (58.8%, ranking third). They boast a number of strong technical players, taking good care of the ball (85.2% completion rate, fourth-ranked), with only 9.5% of their passes going long. The visitors have focused on playing through the middle far more than any other side so far this term (34%).
They have generated a middle-ranking eleven attempts on goal per 90 minutes, but a total xG of 2.5 across three matches (19th), suggesting plenty of low-chance efforts, resulting in them failing to score thus far. Defensively, Villa have allowed just 10.3 efforts per 90, but significant chances, with an accumulated xGA of 5.3 and four goals conceded. Like the Blues, they’ve given up a goal from the penalty spot.
Team Assessment
With regular starter Emi Martínez’s failed attempt to force an exit from the club over the summer, newly-acquired veteran Marco Bizot has been favoured over the former World Cup winner in two of Villa’s three matches. Whether Emery will immediately revert back to the clearly superior Argentine is unknown. Matty Cash is a late fitness call at right back, but former Toffee Lucas Digne is sure to start on the left. The centre back pairing of Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa has been preferred, though Pau Torres could potentially feature.
Villa’s midfield has been struck by injury: both Boubacar Kamara and ex-Everton man Amadou Onana are doubts. It’s likely that Youri Tielemans will drop deeper alongside reported Blues summer target John McGinn, with Morgan Rogers deployed higher up, behind the lone striker. The visitors are loaded in the attacking midfield position, with Emi Buendia – returned from a half season loan at Bayer Leverkusen – and in particular Elliott, a star in England’s recent Under-21 European Championship success, providing valuable options, but a McGinn-Tielemans tandem in front of the defence is lacking in pace.
Ollie Watkins will lead the line for the visitors, but is yet to get off the mark for the season, after firing 16 in the league last term. New man Guessand was deployed on the left against Palace, but has mostly played up front, and on the right — where he’s been most effective, in terms of goal contributions across his career. Either Elliott or Donyell Malen will start on the right side of attack, with Sancho – depending on his fitness – deployed in his favoured left wing berth.
Prediction
So far, so good at their new stadium for Everton: two wins with no goals conceded, though how the ball did not go in against Brighton is anyone’s guess. Villa, despite enduring a poor start to the season and an underwhelming transfer window, are a strong side possessing plenty of talent and helmed by a proven manager. They may not have scored yet, but will be certain to threaten the hosts’ goal on Saturday. The Blues must not switch off defensively, as they did for both of the goals Wolves scored, or commit the kind of errors which James Tarkowski was guilty of against the Seagulls.
The home side ideally will be the one which started at Molineux two weeks ago, with Vitaliy Mykolenko and Iliman Ndiaye facing late fitness tests. Losing the Senegalese – who’s scored twice already this term – would be a blow, though Tyler Dibling should surely step in. The 19-year-old is lacking match fitness, but played over an hour for England Under-21s on Tuesday evening, which will certainly have helped. The Ukrainian presents a more difficult problem, as the team’s only other left back – Adam Aznou – is also returning from injury and Moyes seems to want to bed the teenager in slowly.
If required, it’s probable that Moyes would turn to James Garner – who was impressive operating in his preferred deep midfield spot last time out – to fill in at left back. If so, then this would be a good opportunity to put Röhl straight into the team — based on what have reportedly been strong training performances at Finch Farm. Otherwise, the team is settled, with the only major absentee being star centre half Jarrad Branthwaite, who appears likely to be on the sidelines for a while longer yet, unfortunately.
Villa will be lacking in confidence, off a poor start to the season, and although their best performance so far has been away from Villa Park, it must be acknowledged that Brentford are by some distance the weakest team that they’ve faced. But Everton are unquestionably a better side than the Bees, with a far more battle-hardened manager than Keith Andrews. Roared on by 50,000 Evertonians at their spectacular new stadium on the banks of the River Mersey, the Toffees possess the strength to win the midfield battle and newfound attacking flair, courtesy of star man Jack Grealish, with which to unlock defences.
Score: Everton 2-1 Villa
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, fbref.com and whoscored.com
