It’s Opening Day 2027. The date is who the hell knows. Hopefully that day happens and it happens in April. With the departure of Sonny Gray, whose $25 million mutual option was rejected by the Cardinals, the Cardinals don’t have an obvious ace anymore. On top of that, they entered camp without knowing which five starters would break camp in the rotation. But spring training answered at least who will be in the rotation if not necessarily the ace quite yet.
Now I ask you: who is in the rotation?
There
is not one sure thing in the Cardinal organization who will be in the rotation in 2027. I know what you’re thinking: there are a couple guys pitching right now who will probably be in the rotation then. True. Probably. And no I’m not saying this because of injuries. I’m saying that they could lose their spot in the rotation. A lot can happen between now and then and the trio of current starters in the rotation still under team control then could be exposed by 2027.
I don’t think I need to make a sales pitch for why this might happen to Andre Pallante. I don’t think a single person will call me out saying I am a fool for thinking Pallante might not be in the 2027 rotation. The pitcher with spotty control who has a 5.04 ERA right now? Even Pallante defenders will agree with the thought that he might pitch his way out of the rotation by 2027. Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore are harder sells though.
But it’s quite simple. Liberatore has faded hard down the stretch and I believe it’s fatigue and think he’ll be fine in the end but there’s also a world where he simply can’t sustain being a starting pitcher for a full season. Whatever he does the rest of this year won’t tell me much. He’s already done what he needs to do to be in the 2026 rotation. Next year will be key.
McGreevy is in a slightly different position. It’s not clear he’ll miss enough bats to stick as an MLB starter. Right now his numbers are okay, but I doubt his specific pitching profile is sustainable. He can’t strike out 14% of batters and last. At some point, he’ll have to strike out more hitters, even if it’s still below average. I believe he can do it, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he never can.
In essence, if you told me on an individual level if Matthew Liberatore or Michael McGreevy or Andre Pallante were not in the 2027 rotation because the 2026 season revealed they shouldn’t be MLB starters, I don’t think I would be surprised. All of them, sure. And again, I expect at least McGreevy and Liberatore to be there, but it’s not implausible to imagine them not quite cutting it either.
Why am I throwing cold water on these three? Well, it’s because of the 2027 pitching. You see an unfortunate consequence to the major pitching prospects getting Tommy John this year is that it completely decimated the 2026 pitching depth. Just about everyone who got hurt was supposed to be depth in 2026 if not a part of the plan. Pallante, McGreevy, and Liberatore are huge beneficiaries of this because they will be given every opportunity to prove they belong.
And then everyone gets healthy in 2027.
The 2027 rotation is too far in the future to play these games, but if you look at the current shape of the team, I see one spot to fill unless things go wrong. Pallante, McGreevy, Liberatore, Quinn Mathews, and Max Rajcic should provide three and I would hope they make an outside acquisition by that point for spot #4. Mathews and Rajcic are most primed to make an impression in 2026 among the minor league pitchers, but they are closer to the group I will highlight today than they are to being a McGreevy or Liberatore. Well Rajcic is definitely, Mathews hopefully looks like a rotation staple in 2027. I point this out though because I think, with Mathews and Rajcic included, there are probably at most two MLB rotation spots open to all the names I will end up listing in this post. Keep that in mind.
A weird consequence of Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and Sem Robberse all missing next year to Tommy John surgery is that the 2026 pitching depth is decimated, but also they will be here in 2027 and all will need to be in AAA most likely. This is a weird consequence because they stand still, but the rest of the pitching prospects catch up to them. Not necessarily in prospect status, but in terms of needing to pitch in AAA. Which could lead to a very crowded pitching staff.
I’m not even going to count Tink Hence. Hence seems destined to spend 2027 in the bullpen, not even because I don’t think there’s any chance he can start, but because there is no way he catches up to his innings problem by then. He’s not even close to being able to pitch a full regular season in the big leagues and he’s burning his second of three options next year. At best, I think he’ll go on the Wainwright track or maybe the Liberatore track or even the Pallante track. So we’re at five names already and I’m not including Tink Hence among this group.
Springfield hosts quite a few legitimate pitching prospects who will spend nearly all of 2026 in AAA: Pete Hansen, Brycen Mautz, Ixan Henderson, and probably Hancel Rincon. (I am convinced he’s eligible for minor league free agency, not sure how that affects things). One or two them might even get some MLB time next year and look like real MLB rotation options entering 2027. We’re at nine pitchers who either need to make the MLB rotation out of spring or be in AAA (or be in the bullpen).. I’m not done.
The Cardinals have a few prospects in High A who, if they follow the typical get promoted one level at a time every year, would enter 2027 with AAA being on their timeline. That applies to recent trading deadline acquisitions Frank Ellisalt, Nate Dohm, and Mason Molina. Okay fine they all sort of have reliever profiles so it’s unlikely all of them are still rotation options then. But you still have Chen Wei-Lin, who is not young either. And you have Braden Davis who is striking out 34% of hitters as a starter in High A. The first nine names are a pretty safe group to be in AAA or above AAA. This group less so. But let’s be conservative and say just one of the deadline guys sticks in the rotation and one of Lin and Davis. We’re at 11 guys who need to be in AAA and above.
I have intentionally left him for last, but yeah there’s also Liam Doyle. People think he might pitch in the majors next year, so it’s not a huge leap to think he will be in AAA at the start of 2027. Or the majors. I find this all fascinating. At no point am I even being particularly aggressive with promotions to assume this. We’re looking at something like 12 candidates for two rotation spots and five AAA rotations spots. That leaves a nice cushion of five injuries. Which is probably about right.
So the Cardinals find themselves in the very, very strange position of having just about zero depth for about the first half of the 2026 rotation – I don’t think it’s reasonable to think anyone currently in AA will be ready out the gate, and I don’t think it’s reasonable to think Rajcic will either. But when the Cardinals enter spring training in 2027, their depth should look significantly better without adding a single player. Again, I really hope the season starts on time that year, because that should be a fun spring training.
I just wanted to point out what the last three years of pitching development, selling of assets, and draft picks has led to. And untimely injuries. And yes I know some of my names I have penciled in for AAA in 2027 will get injured in the meantime. The Cardinals have built themselves quite the cushion for it this time. And if the Cardinals manage to have better injury luck next year, it should be pretty fun to see who emerges.
To finish off this post, let me present some goals for the 2026 pitching staff:
- Matthew Liberatore/Michael McGreevy/Andre Pallante re-affirm they belong in the rotation. Just need two of these guys really.
- Quinn Mathews emerges as an effective option. Don’t need too high of a bar here. Just show you are one of the five best starter pitchers in the organization.
- One of Henderson, Mautz, Hansen, and Rincon not only look like a strong option at the beginning of 2027, they hopefully have a handful of MLB starts that show that they can do it.
- Liam Doyle comes as advertised.
If all these things happen, Roby, Hence, Hjerpe, and Robberse will not be relied upon to do anything at the MLB level. You can handle Hence’s innings and the other three’s rehabs however they need to be handled and they will get an opportunity when they’ve proven it. Or you’re allowed to ease them back by giving them an MLB bullpen role too. Point being you aren’t entering spring training and thinking “Gee I sure hope Roby gets back to where he left off.” You’ll think that anyway, but you won’t be reliant on it working out.
