Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: Rice Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: North Texas (-18.5)
- Over/under: 55.5
- All-time series: North Texas leads, 8-5
- Last meeting: North Texas 21, Rice 17 — November 26, 2022
- Current streak: North Texas, 3 (2020-22)
Setting the scene
For the first time since 1959, the North Texas Mean Green (9-1, 5-1 American) are ranked in the AP Poll. The Mean Green snap the longest active drought of any FBS school, checking in at No. 22 after tying
their program record for wins since joining the FBS ranks. North Texas has a legitimate shot at qualifying for the College Football Playoff as the American’s lone 1-loss team, but the Mean Green must take care of business for that dream to materialize.
The Rice Owls (5-5, 2-4 American) won’t bow down to their in-state opponent. Rice desperately needs a win for its own sake, as its second 6-win season since 2014 is on the line. The Owls can qualify for bowl eligibility in year one of the Scott Abell era and snap a 3-game losing streak to the Mean Green.
With its second ranked opponent coming to town this year, Rice is pulling out the stops to produce a homefield advantage, even enticing students with free beer.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
One reason behind North Texas’ most prosperous season in history — the team is a walking 50 burger. The Mean Green have five 50-point games on the season, catapulting to No. 1 in the FBS in points per game at 45.3.
There are almost no holes in the unit. In the passing game, Drew Mestemaker is one of five 3,000-yard FBS quarterbacks, and his 69.3 completion percentage reigns supreme among the 14 passers with at least 2,700 yards. Mestemaker is not only explosive; he’s efficient while doing so. The redshirt freshman’s lack of mistakes is another commendable trait to his game, as he exhibits a ratio of 23 touchdowns to four interceptions in his first full collegiate season as a starter — already looking NFL ready on a weekly basis. He has four 3+ touchdown games, six games completing above 70 percent of passes, and eight starts without an interception in one of the best QB résumés in 2025.
Mestemaker isn’t the only freshman producing eyebrow-raising numbers on a weekly basis. True freshman running back Caleb Hawkins is on an absolute tear right now, ranking second in the FBS with 16 touchdowns. Hawkins’ last two outings included a 197-yard, 4-touchdown outburst to unseat undefeated Navy and a 189-yard, 5-touchdown domination against UAB on the road. Hawkins is racking up 6.3 yards per carry, and not only is he closing in on 1,000 yards at 933 on the season — he is also a frequented receiver with 25 catches for 294 yards.
North Texas’ sixth-ranked offense gets plenty of other faces involved in the receiving game, with seven players attaining at least 15 receptions. Wyatt Young, Cameron Dorner, Landon Sides, and Miles Coleman get the most utilization, with Young reigning supreme on the team in receptions (48), yards (781), and touchdowns (8). Four-receiver sets are common in Eric Morris’ fast-paced air raid offense, which ranks sixth nationally in passing yards per game. And best of all, the pass protection has been excellent, allowing 1.3 sacks per game (top 25 in FBS) despite 34.5 passes per game.
The Mean Green defense received loads of valid criticism over the years, but the ascension of this year’s defense is responsible for the ascension of North Texas as a whole. The run game still needs significant work, ranking 130th nationally with 203 yards surrendered per contest. But the passing defense and turnover production more than make up for North Texas’ struggles against the ground.
North Texas is tied for fourth nationally in takeaways at 24, and it’s quite the collective effort. Nobody has more than two interceptions, and inside linebacker Trey Fields is the lone player with more than two fumble recoveries. Outside linebacker Ethan Wesloski and safety Quinton Hammonds are also havoc inducers on this unit, combining for 12.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions, and three fumble recoveries. Linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties all make frequent contributions to the turnover output, allowing North Texas to have the best average margin in the country at +1.4. The Mean Green’s lone defeat was a rare time they lost that battle, coughing up the ball five times against South Florida — when they’ve turned it over five times across their other nine games combined.
Rice Owls outlook
Rice hasn’t produced a single winning season since 2014. Yet in year one of a rebuild under head coach Scott Abell, the Owls are 5-5 a week before Thanksgiving, with the opportunity to break the drought. It won’t be easy with two of the conference’s best teams North Texas and South Florida on the schedule, but Abell’s Owls know a thing or two about upsets.
Rice already won a pair of games as double-digit underdogs this year, fending off Louisiana on the road and stunning UConn in double overtime at home. One element that allows the Owls to trick heavily favored opponents is the uniqueness and unorthodox nature of their scheme.
Abell employs a spread shotgun option offense which hogs the time of possession and steadily wears out defenses. Only Army and Air Force attempt more runs per game than Rice’s 51.0, and the Owls are great at sticking to their bread and butter on the ground. It’s a complex run scheme which features plenty of pre-snap eye candy and motions, with three or four different ball carriers in play on some designs. The engineer of it all is quarterback Chase Jenkins who has rushed for 422 yards and four touchdowns in his first year as Rice’s starter.
One luxury the option attack enjoys is the presence of Quinton Jackson. The speedy running back is the x-factor to this offense, and the Owls are 4-1 when he produces 80 yards this year and 1-4 otherwise. Jackson can completely take over a game, and that was evidenced against UConn on Oct. 25 when he tallied 168 rushing yards, 80 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns to knock off the independent Huskies. He totes 758 yards on a 5.1 average in total as the primary choice in Rice’s high-powered run game.
Other ball carriers include freshman tailback D’Andre Hardeman Jr. (who is seeing expanded playing time in the wake of Daelen Alexander’s injury), as well as slot receiver Aaron Turner. Rice rarely passes — infiltrating the air at the fourth-lowest rate in the FBS — but when it does, usually two receivers are involved. Drayden Dickmann (33 receptions, 302 yards) and Turner (38 receptions, 217 yards) are the only Owls with more than eight catches. Rice’s passing attempts aren’t usually too vertical, allowing Jenkins to remain efficient. The quarterback completes 69.7 percent of passes with eight touchdowns to interceptions, and the lack of turnovers — seven on the season (5th-fewest in FBS) is a significant driving force behind the Owls’ five wins.
The unique offense draws the most attention, but defense is where the Owls see most of their shine. Rice recently shut out UAB in the second half, holding its fifth opponent of the season to 17 points or fewer in total. The Owls typically sharpen as a game progresses, and they haven’t allowed more than seven second half points in three games — despite facing two top 20 scoring offenses in UConn and Memphis over that span.
Linebackers Andrew Awe and Ty Morris make up a capable tandem as the team leaders in tackles and tackles for loss. Morris is one of many effective pass rushers on the Owls, and they definitely need reinforcements due to the injury of Michael Daley. Generating a stronger pass rush could lead to a higher turnover output, which Rice desperately needs — especially as significant underdogs. The team’s six takeaways are tied for second-fewest in the entire FBS.
Prediction
Outside of UTSA’s 61-point clinic in the Alamodome, nobody has scored more than 38 points on the Owls this year. North Texas’ top scoring offense may face more resistance than usual, and the Owls’ proclivity to run the ball may give the Mean Green fewer possessions than they’re used to seeing. Even though the pace and style of this game will be different for Eric Morris’ squad, North Texas’ advantages still remain.
The Mean Green’s multifaceted offense, headlined by Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins, should find solutions to keep their 10-game streak of 30+ points alive. However, Rice’s offense does not feature the same explosiveness and must play from ahead in order to have a shot. North Texas collects 10 wins for the first time as an FBS program, remaining in the hunt for the American Conference Championship Game.
Prediction: North Texas 37, Rice 14
