Kentucky vs. Georgia. Once a game that helped decide the SEC East twice in the past decade, prior to the SEC going division-less, is shaping up to be one of the biggest mismatches in the series in more than a decade.
Decided by just one point a season ago, 13-12, after Mark Stoops made a controversial late-game call to punt, and the Wildcats couldn’t get a late-game stop on defense to get the ball back. This season, the Wildcats are nearly a three-touchdown underdog, 20.5-point underdogs to be exact.
This Georgia team is not on the same level as the 2022 through 2024 Bulldog teams that were national championship favorites, but they are a playoff contender. Kentucky hasn’t beaten a Georgia team of any level since 2009.
Both teams are entering Saturday’s contest coming off losses, but with vastly different levels of fan engagement and morale.
Georgia, coming off a three-point loss to Alabama, is still in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Kentucky, coming off a 35-13 loss to South Carolina, appears like a team that may go winless in the SEC.
That said, let’s take a look at the matchup.
Bad Pass Offense or Worst Pass Defense?
Kentucky’s passing offense has been consistently bad for years, and this season is no different.
Ranked 120th nationally in passing yards per game, the Wildcats rank last in the SEC and third-worst among all Power Four teams. Analytically, Kentucky has -.32 EPA/pass (131st) and just a 35% pass play success rate (125th), meaning statistically, every passing play hurts Kentucky’s chance of scoring.
“We self-scout and we look and we want to throw it down the field, but there’s a lack of efficiency right now in us throwing it down the field. Numerous reasons why,” Kentucky offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said after practice this week. “We gotta throw and catch better. That’s pretty obvious. We’ve got to find ways to just find easy, cheap yards in the pass game.”
Fortunately, the Georgia pass defense is very bad itself, allowing opponents to succeed on 47.5% of their pass plays (116th) with a .17 EPA/pass (112th). The Bulldog secondary is still searching for answers as they are consistently beaten in coverage, but also allow too many yards after catch.
Cutter Boley looked far from comfortable in his first SEC road start, throwing two interceptions and completing just over 50 percent of his passes. Can the redshirt freshman have a short-term memory and find success on the road in Athens? Look for the Wildcats to push the passing game with some medium-deep shots to capture some momentum.
Limit Turnovers
Going into the South Carolina game, Kentucky had done a good job on the season of taking care of the football, holding a positive turnover margin. Following that game, their first against a top 50 defense, -2.
This was in large part due to a disastrous second quarter that included four turnovers. You’re not going to win many games in the SEC with a negative turnover margin, let alone a -4 deficit.
As said before, this Georgia defense is not as stout as recent seasons, specifically the pass defense. With a struggling offense, in a hostile environment, the Wildcats must remain composed and get the most out of every possession.
Trenches
Many SEC games are won in the trenches, including many upset bids.
After back-t0-back seasons of having one of the worst offensive lines in the country, Kentucky overhauled the unit this offseason. While improved, Kentucky’s protection still leaves much to be desired with 9 sacks given up through two SEC games, including six sacks and four QB hurries surrendered at South Carolina.
“We struggled at times, technique-wise,” Mark Stoops said of the offensive line in the South Carolina game. “Assignment-wise, we were pretty good, for the majority of the night, you have to be at 100% though, we weren’t that. Technique-wise, some guys were fighting it a bit, and a bit off, and can play better. And we need them to.”
On the other side, Kentucky’s pass rush has been a pleasant surprise this season, and Georgia’s offensive line has shown some susceptibility at times, including giving up four sacks to Tennessee. That said, Gunner Stockton isn’t the traditional pocket-passer that the Bulldogs usually have, and is very capable of making players with his legs.
Both lines forthe Wildcats will need to play physically and play fundamentally sound to give themselves a shot.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs
- Game Time: 12:00 PM EST on October 4th, 2025
- Location: Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA
- TV Channel: ABC will have the coverage for this game.
- Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George will call the game.
- Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Network.
- Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
- Replay: ESPN+ and SEC Network (check local listings).
- Rosters: UK | UGA
- Stats To Know: UK | UGA
- Advanced Stats
- Weather.com Forecast
- Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 20.5-point underdog with an over/under of 48.5 points. ESPN gives the Wildcats just a 9.7% chance of victory.
- Predictions: TeamRankings has Georgia winning easy, 35-14. Sportsbook Wire has Georgia 36-21. DRatings.com picks the Bulldogs in a blowout, 34-13. I don’t see Kentucky’s faults being any less exposed against Georgia. The Wildcats SEC losing streak will continue and they will fall to Georgia 37-10.
